Kerala cold-shouldered proposal for dengue early warning system

The model considers health data, and climate-based factors to predict outbreaks months in advance.
Image used for representational purposes only
Image used for representational purposes only
Updated on
2 min read

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Kerala’s failure to collaborate on a proposal submitted by climate scientists to develop a dengue early warning system has turned out to be a blessing for Pune. The state had turned its back on a study aimed at developing an early warning system to detect dengue, by incorporating potential climate-based dengue factors and health data available with the state governments at the regional level.

A pathbreaking study led by scientists Sophia Yacob and Roxy Mathew Koll of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has shed light on the links between climate change and dengue fever in the country. The scientists developed an AI or ML (artificial intelligence/machine -learning) model for dengue early warning system. The study was published on January 21 in ‘Scientific Reports’ published by Nature Publishing Group.

The scientists had approached the state health department last year with the proposal, but the latter didn’t cooperate.

“We have with us the meteorological data provided by the India Meteorological Department,” Roxy Mathew told TNIE. “Kerala is one of the hot spots of dengue. In 2023 we sent an email proposal to Dr Manu, who was the nodal officer of National Climate Change and Public Health. We had only sought data like how many had been infected with dengue fever in each district or city. We also sent a copy of the proposal to Health Minister Veena George. However, her office did not respond,” he said.

According to the data available with the National Centre for Vector-borne Diseases Control, in 2023, Kerala had the top mortality rate for dengue at the national level.

Kerala had recorded 153 deaths that year. According to Roxy, states like Kerala, Maharashtra, and West Bengal which have been reporting dengue fever could greatly benefit from an advanced warning system.

The study revealed that moderate rain during a week adding up to 150 mm in a week leads to an increase in dengue mortality, while heavy rain above 150 mm reduces dengue mortality in Pune through flushing effect where mosquito eggs and larvae are washed away. “The monsoon rainfall from June to September shows strong variations characterised by the wet and dry spells of monsoon. A lesser number of active and break days in monsoon are associated with high dengue cases and deaths,” the study revealed.

Based on the study, an early warning system was developed using observed temperature, rainfall and humidity patterns. The dengue model can predict potential dengue outbreaks more than two months in advance.

According to the study, temperature also plays a major role in dengue spread.

“In Pune, the mean temperature range of 27- 35 degree Celsius during monsoon season is ideal for increased dengue transmission. And it may vary across regions. It is hence important to assess the climate - dengue relationship for each region using available health data individually. Effective dengue early warning systems rely heavily on comprehensive health data collection and sharing. State public health departments play a crucial role in compiling and disseminating health data,” the study said.

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