Nilambur loss a warning for LDF as anti-Pinarayi sentiment gains ground in Kerala

The first-time loss of a sitting seat during the second Pinarayi term has cast a shadow over the Left’s hopes of a consecutive third term.
Aryadan Shoukath with jubilant party workers who gathered in Nilambur town after his victory in the by-election on Monday.
Aryadan Shoukath with jubilant party workers who gathered in Nilambur town after his victory in the by-election on Monday. (Photo | E Gokul)
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THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Can Nilambur be considered a harbinger of the turn Kerala politics will take in the 2026? More than losing a sitting seat, what would be deeply worrying for the Left would be the underscoring fact that the poll outcome as a whole could be termed a verdict against what PV Anvar terms 'Pinarayism'.

That Anvar polled close to 20,000 votes clearly goes to show a political climate in the state wherein an anti-Pinarayi sentiment can be effectively utilized to reap electoral gains. The ex-LDF MLA had campaigned solely against Pinarayi, and the votes he garnered highlights the undeniable fact that an anti-Pinarayi narrative has numerous takers. This is surely a rude wake-up call to avowed Leftists in the state who continue to behave like ostriches with their head in the sand, simply refusing to acknowledge their fast eroding base among thr voters in Kerala.

Undoubtedly, the first-time loss of a sitting seat during the second Pinarayi term, has cast shadows over the Left 's hopes of a consecutive third term. What can be termed as verdict - both against the Left front and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan - has come as a grim reminder that there's an evident anti-incumbency factor in the state. As local body polls fast approach, the writing on the wall is clear for the Left front that it is indeed time to rethink its poll strategy, not just in Nilambur but across the state.

Aryadan Shoukath with jubilant party workers who gathered in Nilambur town after his victory in the by-election on Monday.
Happy we could win back Nilambur after nine years, says UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath

Despite its loss, the LDF hasn't quite lost core Left votes. It has succeeded in protecting its mass base. Despite a UDF-PV Anvar tsunami in a traditionally pro-UDF constituency, the CPM was able to put up a decent show, observed Left commentator NM Pearson.

What might have gone wrong for the Left? An overemphasis on UDF's pact with Jamaat-e-islami, miscalculations over fissures within the UDF in its favour, presumption that the Anvar factor would eat only into the UDF vote base, and overconfidence that government achievements and development politics would compensate for anti-incumbency factors, if any. The pro-RSS remark too might have done its bit. Similarly, the failure to effectively handle - both politically and administratively - the rising human-wildlife conflict too proved costly.

To some extent, the Left strategy of focusing on Jamaat-e-islami didn't yield desired results, opined political observer Sajad Ibrahim. "The Left thought such a narrative would bring in substantial votes from the UDF. This obviously backfired. Meanwhile, the Left failed to win the majority votes too. The government was at the receiving end at Nilambur, as it had not many things to boast about," he opined.

The LDF had used even global issues to stop erosion of minority votes, and prevent a Muslim consolidation in favour of the UDF. With the narrative proving ineffective, the Left's attempt in the coming elections would be to retain its minority vote base, while simultaneously winning back the majority votes. It's pertinent to note here that the entire Opposition had trained its guns on a single individual - Pinarayi Vijayan. Obviously, a major course correction - for both LDF and Pinarayi - in addition to setting a poll agenda that doesn't revolve around Pinarayi alone, has become inevitable, if the LDF wants to thwart UDF hopes of a comeback.

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