KOCHI: As tensions escalate in West Asia, anxiety is rippling through the lives of thousands of Indian expatriates—particularly Keralites, who form a significant share of the Gulf workforce.
With around 2.2 million Keralites living and working across the Gulf, fears of large-scale job losses are growing. But the reality on the ground is more layered: layoffs, unpaid leave, sectoral slowdowns, and a steady wave of return migration. For many, the journey back to Kerala is not permanent—just a pause in uncertain times.
Anu (name changed), a Kuwait-based airport employee from Thiruvalla, said the Gulf's long-standing appeal lies in its financial advantages. “People stay in the Gulf because they earn higher salaries, enjoy a better quality of life, and see faster career growth,” she said. “The zero income-tax policy allows them to save more, especially in countries like Kuwait.”
That stability, however, is beginning to fray. “Some employees have already been terminated without prior notice, while others have been asked to go on unpaid leave,” she said. “There is a real fear that if people return in large numbers, unemployment in India will rise.”
The tremors are being felt across sectors. Construction, infrastructure, hospitality, and oil-linked industries have slowed, hit by supply chain disruptions. Tensions along key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz have choked the movement of materials, forcing companies to scale down operations. “Suppliers are hesitant to send goods, and insurance issues have made things worse,” Anu added. “This has led to shortages and pushed up prices of daily essentials.”
Not all sectors, however, are struggling. Demand for healthcare workers is rising, with some being recalled to meet emergency needs.
In Dubai, Rajesh, a general manager in a supermarket supply chain, described the situation as uneven—but worrying. “A lot of people are losing their jobs because of the war. Employees in five-star hotels are being laid off, and shipping companies are also affected,” he said.
With fewer international vessels docking at ports, logistics and inspection work have slowed sharply. “Earlier, a round trip would cost 2,500 dirhams. Now, it costs the same just for a one-way journey,” he said, pointing to rising travel costs that are further complicating mobility.
Yet, experts warn against reading the situation as a complete collapse.
Migration expert S. Irudaya Rajan, chair of the International Institute of Migration and Development, said return migration during crises follows a familiar pattern. “We saw this during the COVID-19 pandemic, when around 16 lakh people returned within three months. But most of them eventually went back,” he said.
According to him, a similar cycle could play out again. “The real issue is not just about returning, but whether migrants are willing to work in Kerala,” Rajan explained. “If they expect Gulf-level salaries, they won’t find them. But if they are ready to adapt, there are opportunities here.”
He added that many returnees may not actively seek jobs in India at all.
“Some may treat this as a temporary break and wait to return once the situation stabilises,” he said.
Ground-level accounts from Bahrain reflect this grey zone. Jayashankar Mundancherry, a former resident now based in Kaloor, said large-scale job losses are not yet widespread—but disruption is real. “Those who returned are mostly people who could work remotely or afford tickets. Others are still there,” he said.
In several cases, employees are being asked to stay on without pay until new contracts materialise. “They are told they can stay if they want, but there is no work or salary for now,” he said—leaving workers to choose between staying abroad without income or returning home to uncertainty.
Security concerns add to the strain. “At night, you hear warning alarms. There is tension, but people are slowly getting used to it,” he said.
For Kerala, heavily dependent on Gulf remittances, even a partial return could trigger economic stress. With nearly three million people from southern India working in the region, the ripple effects could be significant.
The broader economic signals are already visible. Rising oil prices and a weakening rupee are adding to inflationary pressures, even though India is not directly involved in the conflict.
For now, Gulf migration stands at a crossroads—defined by uncertainty, not collapse. Many Keralites are returning, but not to settle.
If history is any guide, their journey may once again lead them back to West Asia when the dust settles.
