In the increasingly fragile centre-state relations, the national census of 2027 promises to be a Thug Life teaser. The stodgy federal system has resigned itself to the fate of a faceless clown in the circus as double-engine ‘sarkars’ across the country vow to power state economies. In the post-GST era, the state governments, those who do not fall in the double-engine category, continue to reel under a severe fund crunch, with no respite in sight, while others wallow in excessive central aid!
Then, there is cultural, linguistic, and social hegemony that you are subject to. Regional identities and languages are under constant threat. The ASI sits indefinitely on archaeological truth dug from the past. Yet, the onus is on the state to salvage the collapsing federal structure!
The big boots of central probe agencies have efficaciously stifled many a regional voice. Relentless ED, CBI, and I-T raids have stamped out many in the name of ‘corruption’. Some are on a forced sabbatical; others have feigned ignorance of the lurking dangers around. MK Stalin has happily seized the opportunity to pose some uncomfortable questions. While fighting AIADMK, his party’s direct political rival now in an uneasy alliance with the BJP, Stalin is vying for a return to power in 2026.
Not the national census, but its delay has handed Stalin another political delicacy on a platter. What makes it intriguing is the ‘deliberate deferment’ of the census to 2027, a year after the 42nd Amendment’s freeze, which was designed to avoid penalising states (read southern states) with effective family planning and population control, expires in 2026. Unless there is a change initiated, the Constitution demands delimitation (the process of redrawing parliamentary and assembly constituency boundaries as per population data) based on the first census after 2026.
Will the delimitation ensure more seats for the poorer, more populous northern states? Will it create more political imbalance for the southern states? The politically polarised Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state in India, is very close to Pakistan’s population of 24 crore as per the latest estimates. Countries like Brazil (21.6 crore) and Nigeria (22.8 crore) lag far behind. If UP were a country, it would have been the fifth or sixth most populous globally today. If delimitation is done as per the population, the old saying turns more eloquent: the political party that wins UP has the key to the Delhi throne. No prizes for guessing who wins there.
It is evident that BJP wants to unseat Stalin, the visible face of opposition from the south and most vociferous. Its resolve to silence him politically is not something out of the syllabus. His efforts to host a meeting of a ‘Joint Action Committee’ of leaders, including chief ministers of three states, and pass a resolution demanding that delimitation be postponed by another 25 years – like how it was done in 1976 and 2001 - have made him a lone fighter. People believe that the successful family planning and slow population growth in southern states have come as a deterrent in seeking more political power.
The census juggernaut, if it starts rolling in 2027, may take more than two years to cover the 140 crore-plus population with the help of nearly 30 lakh enumerators. Some would want to believe that there would be a delay in undertaking the delimitation and that it will miss the 2029 general election. Meanwhile, the steady influx of migrant workers from the north may turn out to be a blessing for southern states. They may want to lure more workers and their families to settle here and count them in their population data. Nothing wrong with assuming that little drops of water make a mighty ocean.
