CHENNAI: With TVK falling 10 seats short of a majority, its leader Vijay could explore the option of forming a minority government in Tamil Nadu without outside support, analysts said on Tuesday.
Senior political analyst Sumanth Raman told PTI that TVK is likely to consider running a minority government with external support.
"Since it is the single largest party, TVK has the option to go for that. I don't think he (Vijay) will opt for official support from other political party's MLAs", he said.
"If he opts for minority government, the only thing is that, Vijay will have to prove the support once again after six months".
Raman also noted that in 2006, when DMK won only 92 seats, the then party president, the late M Karunanidhi, formed a minority government with outside support.
In a highly unexpected outcome in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, TVK has emerged victorious, ending the nearly six-decade dominance of the two major Dravidian parties, DMK and AIADMK.
By winning in its debut electoral contest, the party has now established itself as a recognised political force.
However, the Vijay-led TVK has not secured a clear majority to form government independently, falling short by 10 seats.
Experts remain divided on the next course of action.
To secure a simple majority, a party must win at least 118 of the 234 assembly seats.
TVK has won 108 constituencies.
Since it has fallen short of the majority mark, several possibilities are now being discussed. Vijay has won in both constituencies he contested — Perambur in Chennai and Tiruchirappalli East.
As per Election Commission rules, he must resign from one seat.
TVK sources indicate he is likely to retain Perambur and vacate Tiruchirappalli East.
If he does so, the party’s tally will reduce by one seat, bringing it down to 107.
Additionally, if the party’s nominated Speaker of the Assembly is unable to vote in a confidence motion, the effective strength will reduce further to 106.
This means TVK would require the support of at least 12 additional members to prove its majority.
At present, within the DMK alliance, the Congress has won five seats, the Left parties four (two each), DMDK one, IUML two and VCK two seats.
Within the AIADMK alliance, PMK has won four seats, BJP one and AMMK one.
In total, TVK could potentially secure support from 21 members across both alliances if negotiations succeed.
This would take its strength to 129 seats (108 + 21).
However, it does not require the backing of all these parties; support from just 12 members would be sufficient.
Vijay is expected to visit Raj Bhavan on Wednesday (May 6) to meet Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar and stake claim to form the government.
The Governor is expected to present two options.
First, he may ask the TVK leader to prove his majority on the floor of the Assembly.
Alternatively, he may request letters of support from allied parties before making a decision.
If TVK demonstrates support exceeding 118 seats, it would be invited to form the government.
If it fails to do so, the Governor may invite DMK, being the second-largest party, to form government.
If DMK is also unable to prove a majority, President’s Rule could be imposed in the state for six months, after which fresh elections would be held across all 234 constituencies.
Another analyst, Durai Karuna, dismissed the possibility of a minority government.
"If he (Vijay) gives an appeal, many political parties including Congress, VCK and left parties will join TVK", he claimed.
"In addition, the AIADMK, which has decided to organise MLAs meeting on Wednesday, might also announce that it would support TVK unconditionally".
He said a clearer picture of Vijay’s decision would emerge in the coming days.
Political commentator Tharasu Shyam said Congress was "holding talks with Vijay.
" He added that the DMK must reconsider its strategy, as must the AIADMK, referring to reported differences within the DMK-Congress alliance over seat-sharing and power-sharing ahead of the polls.
Meanwhile, AICC in-charge for Tamil Nadu, Girish Chodankar, admitted that the Congress leadership’s decision to remain in the DMK alliance went against strong grassroots sentiment favouring TVK.
"The local leaders, the grassroots level leaders, were suggesting if Rahul Gandhi, who has a large acceptance in Tamil Nadu, joins the campaign with Vijay, it will create a big impact and we can sweep the Tamil Nadu polls, and get somewhere around 180-190 seats," Chodankar told PTI Videos.
(With input from PTI)
