HYDERABAD: Ace political strategist Prashant Kishor, who played a key role in YSRC chief YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s massive victory in 2019, has predicted that the Andhra Pradesh chief minister is going to lose big in the ensuing Assembly elections.
Prashant was speaking on the pre-election scenarios in India at the Hyderabad Dialogues — an initiative of TNIE — here Sunday. Asked about his views on Jagan and TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu’s prospects, he offered the opinion that, even with all the usual caveats about calling an election, “I see this whole assumption that Jagan is too strong to be defeated has no legs. He is on a sticky wicket. He is going downhill... I have no data or first-hand experience (of the political situation in AP) but my gut is telling me that he is losing big. Not just losing… but losing big.”
Prashant, who is now on his own Jan Suraaj Abhiyan in Bihar and away from professional political strategising, offered an interesting rationale for his conclusion: that Jagan has made a mistake in putting all eggs in one basket.
“It is a function of how he ran the state. Andhra would probably fall in the middle-income category. If you are not talking about capital creation and new infrastructure but only focusing on the distribution side in a middle-income state, you are taking a big strategic risk. His government has given more priority to giving doles and Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT) even at the cost of incurring a lot of additional debt. This might work in a low-income state but in Andhra Pradesh, where urbanisation is more than 50 per cent, and when your government is seen only in terms of the free benefit you are giving to the masses, it may not. Because 50 per cent (of the population) are not even eligible and you are not even reaching them.”
Prashant met TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu a few months back in Vijayawada. Asked about what transpired at the meeting, he replied that he had spent three hours holding talks with the former chief minister but reiterated that he was in no way associated with the party.
"Can’t fight elections on basis of class in Andhra, TN & TS"
Elaborating further on Andhra, Prashanth Kishor referred to Jagan’s portrayal of the coming elections as a class battle and felt it wasn’t the right pitch. “You can talk about a class battle in Bihar or Jharkhand, but you can’t in Tamil Nadu, Telangana or AP. It can’t be based on DBT because youth look for jobs, not a thousand-rupees benefit. They are looking for more factories, better roads, medical and educational facilities. So, if I am an Andhraite, would I take pride in the hope that Vijayawada or Vizag is coming up as the future city? I will feel inferior to my counterparts in Chennai, Kochi or Hyderabad. It is not difficult to make a prediction that it is very difficult for Jagan to make a comeback.”
He cited another data point: that no politician has gone on to win three consecutive elections in southern states and, technically, no one has gone on to win and even complete two consecutive terms.
He said this explains something about the society. “A middle-income society looks for doles but its people are aspirational on a relative basis.”
At the same time, Prashant felt if the TDP wins, it could be more because of the work not done by Jagan and felt the YSRC chief, with the kind of mandate he secured in 2019 and his age, could have gone on to become one of the most powerful leaders in the south had he not boxed himself into the state and seen himself as a provider instead of meeting the aspirations of the people.
On Jagan’s sister YS Sharmila’s anointment as the State Congress chief, the strategist felt it may not work for the party as it is seen as the one that divided the original unified Andhra Pradesh state.
