NEW DELHI: Almost one in five, undergoing a test for Covid-19 in last one week in Delhi and Maharashtra, has tested positive, suggesting that the two states are undergoing the infection explosion that New York, the city worst hit in the pandemic globally, saw in mid-March.
Data released by the National Institute of Epidemiology under the Indian Council of Medical Research shows that the average test positivity rate in Maharashtra in the last one week is above 20, meaning that more than 20 of 100 tested for the infection are now testing positive.
In these two states where reports of severely sick Covid-19 patients being denied ICU beds due to overwhelmed hospitals have become rampant, the test positivity rate has shot up dramatically and now stands nearly thrice the national average.
The massive rise in positive rates has led many experts to warn that unless enough tests are carried out, the quantum of cases will become unmanageable in the immediate future.
Oommen C Kurian, the lead of the health initiative with the Observer Research Foundation pointed out that increasing test positivity rates is an indicator of states not testing enough and the increasing spread of the virus.
“Some states have to understand that tests are a multipurpose weapon against the virus. It helps prevent the spread in districts with low numbers and more importantly, it helps slow down the spread in districts with high numbers, through systematic isolation of positive cases and quarantining of contacts,” he said.
Till a few days back, the situation did not seem so bad. The cumulative test positivity rate for Maharashtra with over 80,229 cases is above 14 while for Delhi, where the total confirmed cases are 26,334, this figure is a little above 10.
Overall for the country, the average 7-day moving test positivity rate is above 6 and this figure is mostly rising for most states including Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Haryana, West Bengal, and Odisha among others.
Those watching the situation closely are seeing these as alarm bells.
“Test positivity rate close to or above 20 is extremely worrying and it's obvious that large scale community transmission of the disease is taking place in Delhi and Maharashtra,” said Dr. Anupam Singh, an infectious disease expert in Ghaziabad adding that New York experienced the same scenario in mid-March with a rapid, almost uncontrollable, rise in cases.
He stressed on the immediate need for widening the testing criteria in order to catch new infections early and allowing autonomy to doctors to decide whom to test.
“We are seeing a large number of patients in Delhi-NCR who are asymptomatic or have atypical symptoms,” he said. “Containment and mitigation strategies cannot be effective until there is an aggressive focus is on testing, tracing, and treating.”
Delhi on the other hand has been in news for the last few days for asking hospitals and laboratories categorically not to test asymptomatic people in a move that has raised concerns.
Don't rush to test: Kejriwal
The views of the experts run counter to the Delhi government’s order recently to not test all patients. Even on Saturday, CM Arvind Kejriwal asked the public not to head to Covid-19 centres and hospitals for testing if they did not have symptoms.
High infection rate in Maharashtra a worry
The average test positivity rate in Maharashtra was above 20, in other words, more than 20 of the 100 tested for the virus.