Major parties in Odisha are in the thick of campaigning for the Dhamnagar assembly by-poll which is being seen as a dress-rehearsal for the 2024 general elections. The outcome in Dhamnagar, a seat which fell vacant following the death of Bishnu Charan Sethi, BJP’s deputy leader in the state assembly, may have no immediate impact on the political fortunes of any of the three main contestants -- BJP, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Congress -- but it will set the tone for the bigger battle in 2024.
It has a special significance for the two main rivals -- BJP and the Naveen Patnaik-led BJD, the most successful regional party in the history of the state.
For the BJP, retaining the seat is not only a matter of prestige but also crucial to maintaining its position as the main opposition party in the state, a tag it had snatched from the Congress in 2019 by winning 23 seats in the assembly elections. Though the tally was nothing compared to BJD's 112, the BJP still had plenty of reasons to celebrate. The party had managed to push the Congress, which could win only nine seats, to the third place for the first time and simultaneously earned its maiden tag as the main opposition party.
The next logical step for the BJP would be to make a serious bid for power in Odisha in 2024, a goal towards which both its national and state leaders appear to be working.
The recent visits of party president JP Nadda and union home minister Amit Shah to the state were aimed at motivating the cadres and firming up the strategy for the 2024 battle. The party leadership is keenly aware that having already lost the Balasore Sadar seat to the BJD in a bye-election last year, it cannot afford another loss in Dhamanagar. This could break the morale of the cadres and also jeopardize its long-term plan for the next general elections, which is actually part of its Conquer East policy. Having already formed governments in Assam and Tripura and made significant inroads into West Bengal, the takeover of Odisha seems the next logical target for the BJP, which is keen to establish its sway over the eastern belt.
But BJP finds Odisha a hard nut to crack for a variety of reasons.
To begin with, unlike West Bengal Chief Minister Mamta Banerjee, whose moves and moods can be gauged without much effort, the BJD boss and Odisha's longest serving Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik remains an enigma, an inscrutable Sphinx. Poker faced, he neither betrays any emotions nor reveals any secrets. Such rivals are hard to tackle.
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Even more importantly, the BJP and BJD have shared a love-hate relationship in Odisha. They were in alliance for nearly 11 years in the state and were partners in power for about nine years. They had a bitter parting in 2009 when the alliance apparently broke over seat sharing but the real reason was that Patnaik, miffed with BJP's alleged role in the 2007 Kandhamal riots, was itching to end the partnership. In one stroke he not only got rid of a painful partner but was also able to re-affirm his secular credentials that ensured minority voters for his party which has ever since been winning all elections on its own.
However, while BJP and BJD remain adversaries in the state, which suits Patnaik, Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to treat him with kid gloves. Modi has consistently refused to attack Patnaik even in his election rallies in Odisha. On occasions, he has praised the Chief Minister and lauded his role in strengthening cooperative federalism. On his part, Patnaik, too, has taken care not to make personal allegations against the Prime Minister.
Their respect for each other seems to stem from mutual need and the underlying compulsions of India's federal politics. While Modi's NDA government needs the support of regional parties such as Patnaik's BJD in the parliament, especially the Rajya Sabha where it still lacks a majority, the Odisha Chief Minister requires generous financial assistance from the Centre to tide over tight situations often created in the wake of natural disasters like cyclones to which the state continues to be vulnerable.
Hence, despite following an avowed policy of maintaining equidistance from BJP and Congress, Patnaik's BJD had no hesitation in either supporting BJP's presidential candidates in 2017 and 2022 or backing the NDA-piloted bills on Triple Talaq, Citizenship Amendment and dilution of Article 370 in the parliament.
There are also other instances of BJD's overt and covert support for the NDA government. In return, Odisha received generous financial assistance from the Centre in the wake of cyclones such as Fani that cut a swathe through the state's coastal belt in 2019. The state, which was granted an immediate assistance of Rs 1000 crore following the Prime Minister's visit to the areas hit by Fani, later received an additional central assistance of Rs 3,338.22 crore to deal with the aftermath of the gale.
While this apparent dichotomy in BJP's relations with the BJD may confuse state BJP leaders and cadres, their central leaders continue to maintain the charade of fighting Patnaik's party without actually hurting it. This seems to be part of their long-term gameplan for Odisha where BJP at the moment seems to be in no position to dislodge the Patnaik regime. It can at best hope for an improved performance in 2024 but no takeover of power from the BJD.
That being true, it is better for the BJP to keep up the pretence of a scaled-up rivalry with the BJD without actually disturbing Patnaik's friendly equations with Modi till the saffron party actually discovers in the Odisha Chief Minister's armour a chink big enough to start a real war. Like in many other states of the country, where it has expansionist ambitions, the BJP seems ready to play a waiting game in Odisha, too. And until the wait is over the BJP and BJD may remain locked in a friendly combat with the outcome of the bout a curiosity only for the politically native. This suits both the sides.
(Ashutosh Mishra is an independent journalist. These are the writer's views.)