After six phases of the Lok Sabha election, Bihar's hazy electoral picture is getting slowly clearer, showing how caste factors are dominating all other issues in the state.
With anti-incumbency working against almost all sitting MPs, it also shows how their over-dependence on the 'Modi wave' could sometimes backfire as they are now facing a tough fight from opposition 'INDIA' bloc candidates in the state.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 39 of the state's 40 seats.
Among its partners, the BJP had won 17, JD(U) 16 and LJP six seats. Only the seat of Kishanganj had gone in favour of the Congress. Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) even failed to open their account.
But much water has flown down the Ganga in the last five years.
RJD moves from relying only on MY to MY-BAAP
While sitting MPs seldom visited their constituencies and spent little time with people, Opposition leaders came up with a new strategy to counter the ruling alliance in the 2024 elections.
RJD, a major ally of the INDIA bloc in Bihar, is not solely dependent on its traditional 'MY' (Muslim-Yadav) vote bank in this election but has also worked hard on expanding its reach among other non-Yadav castes as well.
The allotment of tickets to people belonging to Kushwaha community, which is known as a traditional vote bank of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United (JD-U) is a case in point.
At least six candidates from Kushwaha caste alone have been given tickets by the RJD in the 2024 elections to eat into the votes of the NDA.
The immensely popular RJD leader Tejashwi Prasad Yadav also described the RJD, in its latest avataar, as a party of 'MY-BAAP'. BAAP stands for Bahujan (Backwards and Dalits), Aagda (forward caste), Aadhi Abaadi (women), Pichda (backward) and poor.
People from upper castes have also been given tickets in adequate numbers by the party in an attempt to win as many seats as possible.
The RJD alone is contesting 23 out of 40 seats, its ally Congress nine, Left parties five and the Mukesh Sahani-led Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) three seats, respectively.
Little traction for Ram Mandir and Article 370 abrogation
On the other side, NDA's BJP is contesting 17, JD(U)-16, LJP (RV) five seats and Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM and RLM led by Upendra Kushwaha one seat each.
Despite NDA's repeated attempts to bring national issues like the Ram Mandir's consecration in Ayodhya and the abrogation of Article 370 into focus in this election, people are talking more about unemployment and price rise.
"Lack of emotive issues in the 2024 election has given enough room to people to raise local issues in the election. Hence the caste factor is dominating all other issues," remarked a political analyst, Pramod Kumar.
Nitish's endeavour to woo the women electorate by launching several welfare schemes for the 'aadhi aawadi' is a big hit despite his 'paltu ram' image drawing flak from voters.
Allegations and counter-allegations over changes in the country's constitution and existing reservation quota are among other the factors widely discussed among people as well as political party activists in this election.
BJP slogan fails to find any resonance this time
BJP's slogan of 'Abki bar char sau paar' has had little impact on most people.
This is unlike in 2014 when BJP's 'Acche din aane wale hain' (good days are ahead) and in 2019 when 'Phir Ek Baat Modi Sarkar' (Modi government once more) both found traction.
"PM Modi is trying hard again to create hype around issues like Ram Mandir and the abrogation of Article 370 but the INDIA coalition at the same time is trying to make it a caste-centric election," said another political observer Priyaranjan Kumar.
That's why the issue of caste census has been raised at election rallies addressed by Congress-RJD leaders, he noted.
However, the 5kg of free ration to each member of families below the poverty line, Ujjawala gas connections and Ayushman health cards have drawn a chunk of voters closer to PM Modi government at the Centre.
People's voice
People are worried about the rising prices of commodities and growing unemployment across the state.
The 17-month tenure of the grand alliance government led by Nitish Kumar provided nearly 4 lakh jobs, a claim repeatedly made by RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav at his election rallies. Tejashwi has been given the credit for this by most voters.
“It was the initiative of Tejashwi Yadav that nearly 4 lakh people got jobs in just 17 months, which could not happen even in 17 years of NDA rule in the state," said Dinesh Paswan, a teacher in a government school in Vaishali district.
"Migration is another major problem, which needs to be resolved. People have to go to other states in search of livelihood. They stay away from their families for months together. Had they been given job opportunities in their home state, they would not have to migrate to other states," remarked Deepak Kumar, a casual worker in Patna.
But they all also want to have a stable government at the Centre.
"Things will be better only when there will be a stable government at the Centre. Though I have no sympathy for any particular leader, I just want to have a stable government at the Centre," said Ganesh Kumar Singh, a prospective entrepreneur in Muzaffarpur district.
What an expert has to say
Referring to elections in Bihar, Sanjay Kumar Singh, a retired professor of BRA Bihar University, Muzaffarpur, said that BJP could get anywhere between 25 to 30 seats in Bihar this time. There are several factors like anti-incumbency and selection of candidates based on caste combinations that could hold the key.
RJD may win four-five seats, Congress two-three seats and Left parties may be able to secure one or two seats, he said.
Most of the political parties are vying for OBC and EBC (Extreme Backward Caste) votes, which constitute nearly 63.13% of the state's population. The caste survey conducted by Bihar government revealed that of the 63.13% of backward castes, OBCs constitute 27.13% and EBCs 36%.
