A Communist president in Sri Lanka? Or will an ex-president's son help the elites cling on?
On September 21, Sri Lanka will hold its first election after the Indian Ocean island's economy collapsed in 2022, resulting in massive public protests, known as the Aragalaya, that forced then president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, to resign and flee.
There are two frontrunners. One is the son of an ex-president who has done the hard yards. The other is a "commoner", who polled just 3% in the last presidential election but might make it to the top this time.
Sajith Premadasa, 57, is the current Leader of Opposition in Parliament and the leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), a UNP breakaway group that has consolidated itself as an influential political party.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake, 56, leads the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the 2019-formed broad alliance, the National People's Power (NPP).
Both the presidential hopefuls entered parliament in the year 2000, have contested the 2019 presidential election, and represent diametrically opposite political ideologies – liberal and moderate left.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake
He is considered the 'outsider' in the presidential race, the communist leader who suddenly finds himself as a frontrunner, whose campaign was built on sweeping reforms, tackling corruption and ensuring economic relief.
In short, Dissanayake offers a political revolution through the ballot. And he insists that he has had a long and tedious journey to the top – and to earn public trust.
Dissanayake Mudiyanselage Anura Kumara Dissanayake (56) hails from Thambuttegama, in the North Central District of Anuradhapura.
In his own words, "an aspirational youth who wanted to change the world", Dissanayake has consistently claimed that only a massive political transition can help Sri Lanka dig itself out from the current morass. A core value in this is to empower the island's majority - the working class, the rural folks - who have no say in political decision making.
The son of "working class parents" as he describes them, Dissanayake attended two public schools in his hometown, and was the first student from Thambuttegama to enter university. His involvement with student politics saw him join the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) in 1987. Soon he was fully absorbed in JVP politics.
A bright student, Dissanayake entered the University of Peradeniya but had to leave as threats mounted. In 1992, he got himself transferred to the University of Kelaniya and graduated in 1995 with a Bachelor of Science degree.
In one of his early interviews with this writer, Dissanayake described his engagement as "politics of dust and sweat". "I have smelled the sweat of the people, known hardships – but also hard work," he had said then.
Dissanayake slowly rose within party ranks and was appointed to the JVP's decision-making body, the polit bureau, in 1998. When the JVP formed an alliance with the Chandrika Kumaratunga-led Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and formed the United Peoples' Front Alliance (UPFA) umbrella to contest the 2004 parliamentary elections, he was entrusted with the portfolio of Agriculture, Livestock, Land and Irrigation in the joint administration.
A year later, the JVP decided to pull the plug and Dissanayake was among those who quit their portfolios. In 2014, he took over the reins as JVP leader, replacing Somawansa Amarasinghe. In 2019, he unsuccessfully ran for presidency, polling 418,553 votes, a mere 3% of the vote.
In his own words, Dissanayake has been working with others "to elevate the JVP" for years and to soften the image of a radical party that is responsible for two bloodied southern uprisings, in 1971 and 1987 respectively.
When Sri Lanka's economy crashed in 2022, resulting in massive public protests where corruption and lack of accountability became prominent themes, the JVP found itself on friendly soil. Dissanayake has been steadfast in his criticism of cronyism, nepotism, concentration of power and corruption.
In parliament and outside, Dissanayake has been a strong anti-corruption voice demanding accountability. His promise to overhaul the system, end family rule, introduce financial reforms and improve governance structures resonated with the protesting masses, who wanted to end the Rajapaksa brand of politics. Dissanayake's oft-repeated key public pledges include the recovery of stolen assets and punishing those responsible for the island's unprecedented economic crisis.
In Dissanayake, the voters see a leader with the capacity to end 76 years of elite political rule – and the arrival of the "commoner". In the eyes of many, Dissanayake is a "political outsider", who according to some opinion polls is Sri Lanka's most trusted politician.
Yet, the JVP's economic and foreign policies and its well-known anti-India approach have been criticised by many as unpragmatic. While the South is happy to embrace him, this enthusiasm is not shared by the island's ethnic-religious minorities.
JVP is considered a nationalist political force with little to offer to minorities, which also creates a dent in the vote. The Tamils and the Muslims form 11% and 9% of the island's total population and have traditionally supported liberal political parties or candidates known for minority-friendly policies.
The rise of Dissanayake will spell a complete overhaul – one that will effectively end the Sri Lankan elite's hold on politics and possibly grand corruption.
Sajith Premadasa
Dissanayake's main rival Sajith Premadasa, as a first-time legislator, unabashedly spoke of his ultimate political aspiration to become the country's president. He spoke about his readiness to get there, step by step, on merit.
Twenty-four years later, running for presidency for the second time, Premadasa positions himself as "well-trained, well-educated for the top job and supported by the most capable team" to lead the nation out of a political and economic crisis.
His father, Ranasinghe Premadasa, was the island's president from 1989 to 1993 and is criticised for the brutal crushing of the second JVP insurgency of 1987-89. When President Premadasa was killed by an LTTE suicide bomber in 1993, Premadasa Jr, who was then completing his postgraduate studies at the University of Maryland, returned home and joined the UNP. There has been no looking back since then.
To launch his political career, Premadasa selected the remote district of Hambantota, the Rajapaksa stronghold. In 1994, he was appointed UNP's district leader for Hambantota. In 2000, he was elected to parliament with 83 % of the UNP's preferential vote, signalling the popularity enjoyed by the Premadasas with the rural poor.
From 2001 to 2004, he served as the Deputy Minister of Health. In 2011, Premadasa was appointed UNP's deputy leader. In President Maithreepala Sirisena's 2015 cabinet, Premadasa served as Minister of Housing and Samurdhi. He unsuccessfully contested the 2019 Presidential Election as United National Front's presidential candidate and lost to Gotabaya Rajapaksa, polling 5,564,239 votes ( 41.99%). The same year, Premadasa was appointed the Leader of the Opposition and a member of the Constitutional Council of Sri Lanka.
Premadasa was a vocal critic of the absence of internal democracy within the UNP which created a serious rift with UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. Eventually, he formed Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), a UNP breakaway group that soon became the largest opposition political party in Sri Lanka.
Educated at S. Thomas' Preparatory School, Royal College, Colombo, Mill Hill School and the London School of Economics, Premadasa believes Sri Lanka requires an economic policy that is steeped in equity and social justice – economic liberalism married to a policy that is "socially democratic".
Drawing inspiration from his father, Premadasa has carefully cultivated a "pro-poor" image and is a believer of grassroot politics. The SJB's promises reflect his realism and the promise of subsidies and general poor relief. A key economic pledge is to renegotiate the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to ensure greater security for the economically marginalised. He has promised constitutional reforms, special programs for the poor, a boost to tourism and an accountable government.
To his credit, Premadasa has shown the ability to garner support from the island's Sinhala majority as well as the ethno-religious minorities. He is largely considered the moderate candidate who has the backing of the country's 20% minorities.
Away from politics, Premadasa is a gifted wildlife photographer and a piano player.
