On September 21, over 5.5 million Sri Lankans voted for an ‘untried but trusted’ political leader to lead them through one of the most tumultuous periods the country has ever faced. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, 56, has inherited a nation in steep external debt and a political system that bleeds from lack of accountability, grand corruption, family rule and a poor law and order situation.
Add to this, the legacy of Dissanayake’s own party: two bloodied insurrections that cost many lives and saw the destruction of public property in 1971 and 1987-1989. The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the main constituent party of the National Peoples’ Power (NPP), is therefore both loved and feared. On September 21, love won. A section of the voters who remember the past violence clearly overlooked its chequered past and entrusted the nation to Dissanayake, marking the end of an era.
In five years, the JVP/NPP has increased its political fortunes from a mere 3% in 2019 to 42% - a remarkable political feat for a party that appeared to be on the decline. With the September 21 vote, people have installed as president a man once considered an ‘outsider’ by the traditional political parties. Dissanayake still needs to deal with the party’s violent history and address an unprecedented economic crisis. Meanwhile, the international community has been tiptoeing around the JVP/NPP and watching the Indian Ocean island with keen eyes.
Dissanayake’s party has time and again protested against privatisation and bilateral commercial projects. Neither Dissanayake nor his party are considered fans of India. It goes back to the time when the Marxist JVP offered its cadres an orientation program which included five lectures, the fifth on Indian expansionism. There is historical mistrust that is hard to shed.
But that’s an old story. The JVP has evolved into a broader political movement as the NPP, bringing in various groups under its umbrella with a seemingly evolving identity. Now propelled into power, the ninth president of Sri Lanka has little room to navigate but more work to do in order to win friends.
When an NPP delegation visited India this February, it indicated two things: Delhi’s acknowledgement of the NPP’s growing popularity and the latter's willingness to work on its relationship with India.
According to an Indian diplomat who served in Colombo, it's time to bury the hatchet – at both ends, for the right reasons. Delhi was aware of the NPP’s increasing popularity and the possibility of an electoral win, especially following the 2022 public protests that created extremely favourable political conditions for the NPP. The same understanding existed within the NPP. “The NPP wants to shed some of the old JVP baggage and showcase itself as mature and pragmatic. This first step was important,” he said.
“It was a slow burn. The JVP has taken strategic steps to evolve into a larger political movement that is acceptable to a much larger section of the people. To capture power, a party needs to become acceptable not only to those who subscribe to their political ideology but to the floating voters, the disgruntled. The NPP has positioned itself well,” says Rathindra Kuruwita, analyst and writer.
According to Omar Rajaratnam, an international relations analyst and advisor for Factum, a Colombo-based think-tank, the new president will not get time to acclimatise or get his foot in the mud gradually, and will be thrown into the arena straight away. His immediate challenges will include a balancing act – of competing geopolitical interests, primarily among India, China and the US – without the risk of dropping any one of them.
These countries already have long-established diplomatic relations, investments and heavy geopolitical interest in the island. Any alterations should come after expert assessments.
“India played a key role in supporting Sri Lanka to secure a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and vouched for the island. When the financial crisis hit, the first responder was India and assistance came, both in cash and kind. That was way before the debt servicing agreement was drawn up,” says Rajaratnam.
He notes that the JVP’s ascendancy will naturally cause apprehensions in New Delhi. Putting the JVP’s well-known anti-India sentiments and the mistrust of India’s political intentions aside, the current situation calls for pragmatism and shedding inflexible, old positions, he says.
The JVP has consistently campaigned against Indian investments in Sri Lanka and in the past has repeatedly mobilised people to oppose such “overtures.” Such simplistic approaches will work against Sri Lanka’s interests, now reeling under an economic crisis with some of these undertakings already inked, he says.
Referring to Dissanayake’s recent calls from his campaign platform to “cancel Adani-funded projects”, Rajaratnam says such rhetoric is ill-advised. “As president, Dissanayake is required to juggle everyone and serve the best interests of Sri Lanka. If the administration identifies any agreement that fails to serve the island’s best interests, they should renegotiate it, seek better terms or even part ways if that’s the best option. But there cannot be any unilateralism. It will create insurmountable pressure that the administration will not be able to withstand; it will create a bad precedent; impact the credibility of the state and will invariably carry consequences. That would put us in the eye of a massive geostrategic storm,” Rajaratnam told The New Indian Express.
He notes that bilateral agreements should be reviewed carefully and renegotiated – if needed. One area that Dissanayake should prioritise is Indian imports. “There are items Sri Lanka can manufacture. If Sri Lanka is to become an export-led country, then there are some choices to be made here. Sri Lankan cannot be an open yard for Indian goods,” said Rajaratnam.
Kuruwita says, “Dissanayake may not have strong, direct links with China but those would be the easiest to forge. The NPP is a left-leaning party with Marxist-Leninist beginnings. It can be the counterbalance when things are heavily leaning in favour of the US or India. If they play a bad hand well, it can balance the two Asian giants and benefit.”
In this relationship with India, another bone of contention will be the implementation of the 13th Amendment to devolve power. The JVP has historically opposed the constitutional amendment and the provincial council system, calling it a burden on the exchequer. In the past, it has not acknowledged the need to devolve power and empower local communities to make decisions. “This will prove a bone of contention as the presidential manifesto commits to the conducting of the provincial polls but nothing beyond that,” adds the Indian diplomat.
“It is part of the country’s law, and its non-implementation amounts to a violation of the constitution itself – besides undermining the rights of people, specially those in the North and East who clamour for power devolution,” the former diplomat told The New Indian Express.
As for the commercial agreements, Rajaratnam says that some assurances from the new president will go a long way, except where there is a need to amend.
An area where Sri Lanka may have to soft pedal is the foreign research vessels that dock there. Sri Lanka is a sovereign country and is able to make its own decisions. “However, there are some practicalities the NPP should consider, acknowledging geopolitical considerations," suggests Rajaratnam.
Kuruwita is hopeful that the old wounds will not matter at this point. “NPP’s evolution is immense. India would not want to upset the new administration which also enjoys significant support. In fact, the moment may be ripe for some strategic negotiations by Colombo, of course without ruffling feathers. The rhetoric belongs to the past. Now it is the cold reality of managing bilateral relations pragmatically.”
It is about playing that geostrategic game well, says Rajaratnam. “Some countries harbour anti-Russian sentiments and are open about it. Russia has not had a detrimental influence on Sri Lanka ever. Despite these geostrategic issues, the stage is set for India and Russia to jointly manage a pot built with Chinese funds. It should be about securing the best commercial benefits for an island trying to recover from a crisis,” he adds.
