Cinema tickets bought in Pakistan's border town of Sialkot were found in the pockets of three suicide militants who were killed after they attacked the Kaluchak army camp in Jammu and Kashmir on May 14, 2002. The camp was situated on National Highway 1A, close to the India–Pakistan international border. Thirty people, mostly women and children of army personnel, were killed by the militants. The Kaluchak attack came five months after the December 13, 2001 Parliament attack, which had already severely strained relations between India and Pakistan.
The Kaluchak attack was clearly aimed at provoking and demoralising the Indian Army. India responded with Operation Parakram, which entailed the mobilisation of troops along the Pakistan frontier as part of coercive diplomacy. Pakistan responded in kind and the international community feared a potential nuclear confrontation between the two nuclear powers. Only after months of extensive backchannel diplomacy, largely facilitated by the United States, were tensions defused.
Over the past 35 years, massacres of civilians such as the one that claimed 26 lives in the expansive grassy meadows of Baisaran near Pahalgam have repeatedly scarred the landscape of Jammu and Kashmir. It is a long list. This one had its uniqueness as it came after the abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019. And more importantly, since tourists were targeted, even though Amarnath pilgrims had been repeatedly attacked in the past.
Apart from Pahalgam, Baisaran meadows can also be accessed through the lofty Pir Panjal mountain Range which stretches for approximately 320 kilometers. It runs from east-southeast to west-northwest, primarily through the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, as it divides Kashmir valley from Jammu.
Baisaran meadows are part of a series of alpine pastures spread along both flanks of the Pir Panjal range, characterised by varying altitudes. These meadows serve as vital grazing grounds during the summer months from May till September, sustaining the livestock of the nomadic Bakerwal tribes.
Chillingly deliberate
The attack targeting mostly male tourists was not just an act of brutality. Its timing and context are chillingly deliberate. It coincided with Prime Minister Narendra Modi deepening strategic cooperation with Saudi Arabia, and US Vice President JD Vance's arrival in New Delhi signalling growing Indo-US alignment.
It also came just days after the Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir delivered a statement that was as revealing as it was provocative. He sought to distinguish Pakistan's national identity as fundamentally separate from that of "the Hindus", a formulation rooted unapologetically in the two-nation theory — the ideological foundation of Pakistan's creation. Such rhetoric is not merely symbolic but it has implications on the ground.
As the India-Pakistan conflagration deepens, a clinical analysis is essential to fully grasp the internal context in which the attack occurred. Understanding this is vital to ensure internal stability and preparedness before embarking on any external action and it is directly linked to convincing the international audience of Pakistan's involvement in the attacks, as was done during the Mumbai attacks.
Separate hard security imperatives from political messaging
For those of us who have witnessed firsthand the evolving phases of terrorism across the length and breadth of Jammu & Kashmir over the past 35 years, there is little surprise in the recurrence of such brutal acts. In moments like this, the danger lies not only in the violence itself but in the risk of losing sight of the bigger picture and failing to learn key lessons.
First, the governing elite must disown the narrative that the abrogation of Article 370 has led to a significant improvement in Jammu and Kashmir’s security situation. The oft-cited rationale for the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, which effectively nullified Article 370 and downgraded the state to a Union Territory, was that these measures would bolster the nation's resolve to combat terrorism. It is frequently argued that direct central control over Jammu and Kashmir's security is indispensable. However, this claim risks fostering a misplaced sense of complacency and diminishes the value of the sustained sacrifices and groundwork that have shaped and maintained security protocols in the region.
The attack took place in a meadow facing the Pir Panjal mountain range. For over twenty minutes, the terrorists were able to kill multiple civilians, and yet no security personnel were present. Normally, every large congregation in J&K is secured with perimeter protection. In this moment of national grief, we must draw lessons and separate hard security imperatives from political messaging.
Security is a professional function and the security apparatus must be allowed and expected to function professionally. In this context, the additional presence of troops (some will call it unsustainable) in the Kashmir valley since August 5, 2019 has shored up local intelligence in urban centres that have enabled relatively quiet consecutive summers in the valley and an end to stone-pelting.
But that doesn't mean attacks have stopped and recruitment of terrorists has ebbed in the valley. In 2022, there were targeted assassinations, indicating that at any given opportunity terrorists will strike, particularly in selective geographical locations. In a nutshell, it should be internalised that the existence or absence of Article 370 has no bearing on the security situation in J&K. In fact, the thinking that it has improved the security situation bred complacency.
One-way discourse and how it has created a strategic blind spot
Second, from PM Vajpayee to PM Nehru, with obvious differences in approach, J&K was historically treated as an issue beyond partisan political considerations. Mistakes were certainly made with momentous consequences often due to the misreading of local sentiment or over-centralisation but the political space allowed for honest debate and critical input.
In recent years, those ethos have been eroded. The past five years have witnessed the rise of a unidimensional discourse, where the projection of normalcy has become both a political goal and a performance metric. Departures from this narrative are too often branded anti-national, leading to a chilling effect on local voices.
The incentive structure has shifted: conformity is rewarded, dissent penalised. This has created a strategic blind spot. Truth can no longer reach power if the intermediaries are only echoing what is politically palatable.
The Valley, being a culturally and linguistically homogenous and tightly-knit society, has an acute collective sense of change on the ground. It can read shifts in militant activity, in public mood, in external pressures, but if those readings never reach decision-makers in New Delhi, the policy response will be delayed, flawed, or misdirected.
Academic institutions, for example, should enjoy freedom. In such a scenario, silence is not neutral; it is ominous. The remedy is clear: foster an environment where truth can be responsibly spoken to power. It is through such candour that meaningful course correction becomes timely and possible.
That newfound obsession with tourism stats
Third, a troubling trend in the political discourse on Jammu and Kashmir has been the repeated invocation of tourism statistics as proof of normalcy. This practice marks a stark departure from the cautious, consensus-driven approach of the past, when successive governments, regardless of party affiliation, agreed that rising tourist footfalls should not be conflated with a durable peace.
That restraint was rooted in wisdom. Tourism in Kashmir, while economically vital, is also extremely sensitive to perceptions of safety, often surging during brief lulls in violence but plummeting again after each major incident. It is a volatile indicator, and treating it as a strategic barometer leads to false assurances and delayed response mechanisms.
In recent years, however, institutional norms have been jettisoned. Enhanced tourist inflow is now touted in official briefings and political speeches as a measure of "restoration of normalcy" — a narrative that boxes the complex, layered reality of security, governance, and community sentiment into a single, convenient figure. This framing is dangerous. It encourages complacency in the security apparatus and suppresses critical assessments from field officers and local administrators. Moreover, it is easy for the terrorists to puncture this claim as tourists are easy targets.
The spike in infiltration attempts that was ignored
Fourth, infiltration has continued unabated in Jammu and Kashmir, particularly in the last two years. There is little ambiguity about the fact that the Pakistani military establishment actively enables terrorist infiltration into Indian territory.
The infrastructure of terror that runs across the border such as training camps, launch pads and logistical networks function with the tacit, and at times explicit, support of the official agencies. The strategic use of non-state actors has long been part of Rawalpindi’s asymmetric doctrine, and despite international scrutiny, this machinery remains largely intact.
As for the present attack, what makes it even more troubling is that India had ample warning. Ground reports in the weeks leading up to the attack pointed clearly to a spike in infiltration attempts, particularly through the Samba-Kathua sector in the south and the Rajouri-Poonch-Baramulla axis along the International Border and Line of Control respectively.
These regions, due to their topography and sociocultural overlap with Pakistani Punjab and Pakistan-controlled Jammu and Kashmir, offer terrorists easier routes and greater camouflage. The assassins of Baisaran, according to reports, were last active in Poonch. Locals had been alerting various stakeholders, including the ruling party and the opposition, but no one paid attention.
India's border management must therefore transition from a reactive containment model to a predictive prevention model — one that links field intelligence with real-time decision-making and diplomatic signalling. Infiltration should no longer be treated as an episodic challenge but as a constant threat, requiring constant vigilance and proactive deterrence.
In recent years, militant groups operating in and around Jammu and Kashmir have significantly upgraded their operational secrecy. Communication is now routinely encrypted through apps like Signal, making interception by traditional surveillance methods more challenging. These are not advanced state-level tactics — they are basic cybersecurity techniques accessible to any determined actor with minimal digital literacy.
Shoring up the most potent weapon in terrains like Pir Panjal
Fifth, one of the most urgent takeaways from the attack is the urgent need for a coordinated, unified internal security architecture and improving human intelligence.
Today, Jammu and Kashmir suffers from a dual power center: the military and paramilitary forces on one hand, and a weakened or politically constrained civil administration on the other. This fragmented structure has proven inadequate in anticipating, preventing, and responding to threats.
There are areas, particularly in South Kashmir and the Pir Panjal region, where the deterrence and operational reach of the Army remains indispensable. The terrain, the historical pattern of infiltration, and the persistent presence of sleeper cells necessitate military deployment. However, placing the full burden of internal stability on the armed forces is not only unjust -- it is operationally unsustainable due to the sheer terrain in the midst of thick growth of trees where drones cannot capture human movement.
The Gujjar-Bakarwal community once stood as a bulwark against terrorism in the Pir Panjal range, which divides the Kashmir valley from Jammu. Thickly-forested Pir Panjal offers natural cover for terrorists and enables movement on either side with ease without detection. It is impossible to man every inch of the range that starts from the Line of Control.
The collaboration with mountain communities, who possess the knowledge of the routes and shortcuts from the Line of Control to the interiors, with the armed forces, especially in areas like Bafliaz and Marrah, was instrumental in disrupting Lashkar-e-Taiba's networks in the region. For a time, some of the routes of the terrorists along the Pir Panjal were transformed into zones of resilience. But trust is a perishable commodity. A bottom-up counter-terrorist strategy should get back to the basics by shoring up human intelligence, which is the most potent weapon in this terrain.
Why restoration of statehood could help
Linked with this is the fact that political apparatus — far from being a hindrance — must be reimagined as a strategic asset and a force multiplier in the fight against terrorism.
The present political elite under Chief Minister Omar Abdullah is merely functioning as a managerial set-up with control over some departments and this is leaving a political vacuum. An organic civil society in Jammu and Kashmir has become non-existent in the last five years and another feedback channel doesn't exist. Only when political and civil society engagement is bold, empathetic, and rooted in ground realities will it complement military efforts, enhance timely intelligence flow, and deter such attacks.
This is even more important in regions around the Pir Panjal, where identity, geography, and history intersect in complex ways. The fight against terrorism here will not be won by the gun alone. It will be won only with the support of communities living in these mountains for centuries. They know the local terrain and can smell trouble before anyone.
By curtailing Jammu and Kashmir's political executive's powers, by weaning away the police from its jurisdiction, they have been made a bystander on the foremost challenge facing the people of J&K. There is no assurance that the thirty-five-year-old chapter of militancy in J&K will end with the restoration of statehood. At the same time, the trends on the ground are best understood and picked up by the local agencies under political supervision, as they are more aware of granular nuances and past patterns.
Ideally, the restoration of statehood will place the Unified Command, a civil-security joint apparatus on counter-terrorism in J&K established since the 1990s, under the direct control of the elected Chief Minister. It is presently under the control of the LG.
Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, despite continuing to press for the restoration of statehood, may be less assertive about reclaiming control over security matters. The reason is simple: any similar attack occurring under his watch would likely trigger nationwide calls for his resignation. Yet, it remains true that the responsibility of fostering a credible civilian deterrence against terrorism ultimately lies with the political actors of J&K.
In Trumpian times, there are no easy options
As for delivering an immediate payback, it must be kept in mind that the geopolitical landscape has undergone a notable transformation since earlier crises in South Asia and this too has to be factored in. In the past, the United States played a significant behind-the-scenes role in crisis de-escalation, most notably during the military standoff following the 2001 Parliament attack and the 2002 Kaluchak massacre.
The current international environment presents a different set of challenges. Under President Donald Trump’s "America First" doctrine, the US foreign policy has shifted toward a transactional and interest-based approach, often deprioritising regions and conflicts that did not directly impact core American economic or strategic interests. In this framework, South Asia, despite its volatility and nuclear dimensions, may no longer command the same sustained diplomatic attention from the US State Department as it did in earlier decades.
In the wake of the egregious terrorist attack, as public pressure mounts on the Modi government to respond, South Asia stands on the edge of a powder keg. While public outrage is understandable, any retaliatory move undertaken without a clear strategic vision and proper forward planning may offer momentary domestic appeasement but risks grave unintended consequences, including the failure to deter future assaults.
There are no easy options. As India weighs its diplomatic and military options, it must simultaneously act on what lies within its immediate control: breaking the internal pattern of complacency. This entails building a resilient, integrated security architecture and fostering a political culture that genuinely listens to ground realities in Jammu and Kashmir and take steps essential to advancing enduring national security. This will be integral to the forward-planning exercise.
(Luv Puri has authored two books on J&K, including Uncovered face of militancy and Across the Line of Control, based on fieldwork in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir)
