American historian Allan Lichtman, known as the "Nostradamus" of presidential election predictions, has accurately forecast the winners of nine of the last 10 US presidential races.
This time, Lichtman has predicted that Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat her Republican challenger, former President Donald Trump, in the race to the White House.
His forecast comes just days before a scheduled presidential debate between Trump and Harris on September 10.
The 77-year-old historian is one of the few pundits to have accurately predicted both Donald Trump's 2016 victory and Joe Biden's 2020 win.
His track record spans four decades and 10 presidential races, with his only miss being in 2000, when he predicted Democrat Al Gore to defeat Republican George W Bush. Gore did win the popular vote but lost the electoral college by a razor-thin margin.
To accurately forecast these races, Lichtman employs a model called 'The Keys to the White House', which uses 13 keys—in the form of true-or-false questions—to assess the state of the US and its political system ahead of a presidential election.
According to this model, if six or more keys are unfavourable to the White House party, it is predicted to lose the election. Conversely, if fewer than six keys are unfavourable, the party is expected to win.
In a video with The New York Times, Lichtman backed Harris to defeat Trump in November’s presidential election, noting that eight keys are in favour of the Democrat, compared to three in favour of the Republican.
"Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States—at least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote," he said in the video.
Lichtman's keys are based on whether the White House party gained seats in the House during the most recent midterm elections, avoided a primary contest, and if the incumbent president is seeking re-election.
Additionally, the model considers whether there is no third-party candidate running, the short-term and long-term economies are strong, the White House has enacted major policy changes, there is no significant social unrest or major scandal, the White House has achieved foreign policy success without experiencing foreign policy failure, and whether the incumbent candidate and challenger possess the necessary charisma.
Lichtman said Trump benefitted from three keys that came up false.
The first key involved the White House gaining seats during the anticipated red wave in the 2022 midterms, defying expectations. However, the party lost control of the House, making this key false.
Similarly, Lichtman noted that if the incumbent president were not seeking re-election, it could negatively impact the Democrats' standing, which makes this key false as well.
Additionally, the poll historian pointed out that the key requiring the incumbent party’s candidate to be highly charismatic has not been met by Harris, rendering this key false.
"To meet this key, a candidate must be a once-in-a-generation figure with broad inspirational appeal. Harris does not meet this standard, so this key is also false," he said.
Lichtman further warned that the remaining two keys, predicting success or failure in foreign policy, could still shift in Trump’s favour before the election due to the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the war in Gaza, which he described as a "humanitarian disaster with no end in sight."
"Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip. The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House," he said in the video
Lichtman first used the model to accurately predict Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984 despite economic and approval challenges.
In 1988, despite Republican George HW Bush trailing Democratic challenger Michael Dukakis by 18 percentage points in opinion polls as of May that year, Lichtman predicted a Bush victory based on his association with Reagan’s successful presidency and foreign policy achievements.
For the next election, Lichtman predicted Bush will be a one-term president. This prediction was confirmed when Bill Clinton, who was initially doubted by many Democrats, won the 1992 presidential election. This even led to Clintons becoming strong supporters of Lichtman’s model.
However, Lichtman predicted Democrat Hillary Clinton's loss to Donald Trump in 2016, maintaining his forecast throughout the election campaign, even as pollsters from both sides confidently projected a Clinton victory.
They were all wrong. Lichtman wasn't.
Will his track record of accurate predictions hold this time as well?
The answer will emerge when the US votes on November 5.
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