Sri Lanka is set to get its new president after a historic turn of events which led to a second round of counting of votes as no candidates were able to secure the required 50% majority in the presidential election.
As the counting progressed, Anura Kumara Dissanayake is leading with more than 5.6 million votes securing 43.93 % of the votes while Sajith Premadasa is following closely with 4.3 million votes, securing 33. 98% of the votes.
According to experts, Dissanayake, leader of the Marxist JVP's broader front, the National People's Power (NPP) is likely to secure more than 7 million votes, comfortably crossing the 50% mark.
Experts had earlier suggested that the second count may favour Premadasa, as those who voted for incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe are likely to have selected him as their second choice.
Saturday's election is significant for Sri Lanka as the first election since mass protests led to the ousting of former leader Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022, following the country’s worst economic crisis.
After the first round of counting of votes, Election Commission Chairman RMAL Rathnayake said that Marxist leaning Anura Kumara Dissanayake and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa have secured maximum votes in the presidential election.
However, he said that neither of them have secured more than 50% of the vote. This led to a another round of counting of the second preference votes which is to be added to the initial votes secured by the two candidates. He added the new president will be declared elected after the cumulative votes and preference votes are counted.
In Sri Lanka, voters elect a single winner by ranking up to three candidates in order of preference. If a candidate receives an absolute majority, they will be declared the winner. If not, a second round of counting will commence, taking into account second- and third-choice votes.
Notably, all eight presidential elections in Sri Lanka since 1982 have seen the winner emerge in the first round of counting.
Early trends indicated that Dissanayake initially garnered 52% of the votes, positioning him as the frontrunner for the presidency. However, opposition leader Premadasa, who was in second place, began to increase his vote share, resulting in no candidate reaching the 50% threshold.
Dissanayake won 15 out of 22 districts at the end of the first round of counting in all the 160 polling divisions. Dissanayake secured 42.31% of the votes and led by 1.3 million votes, while Premadasa received 32.76% after the first round of counting in all. Wickremesinghe, who took office during the peak of the 2022 economic collapse and imposed tough austerity measures as part of an IMF bailout, was trailing in a distant third with 17.27% vote share.
Dissanayake topped the Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale, Colombo, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambatota and Moneragala districts. Sajith Premadasa meanwhile claimed the Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Digamadulla, Batiicaloa, Trincolmalee, Vanni and Jaffna districts.
The polls were held on Saturday at over 13,400 polling stations across 22 electoral districts, featuring the highest number of candidates—38—but no female aspirants for the top post.
Voter turnout was around 75%, lower than the 83% recorded in the previous presidential election held in November 2019.
At the outset Dissanayake had won 21 of the 22 postal district votes and secured several results declared thus far from the 168 geographical parliamentary seats across different districts. This prompted several leaders to congratulate him after it looked like he was on the verge of securing the presidency.
Wickremesinghe has yet to concede defeat, but his Foreign Minister Ali Sabry congratulated Dissanayake on X, stating, "After a long and arduous campaign, the results of the election are now clear. Though I heavily campaigned for President Ranil Wickremesinghe, the people of Sri Lanka have made their decision, and I fully respect their mandate for Anura Kumara Dissanayake. In a democracy, it is crucial to honour the will of the people, and I do so without hesitation."
Sabry extended his sincere congratulations to Dissanayake and his team.
Premadasa camp senior Harsha de Silva also congratulated Dissanayake.
NPP sources indicated they would visit the presidential secretariat on Sunday to discuss the formalities of the transition.
Analysts noted that the swing Dissanayake garnered was unprecedented, despite pre-poll expectations of his victory being considered foregone.
The NPP, Dissanayake's once-marginal Marxist party, led two failed uprisings in the 1970s and 1980s that resulted in over 80,000 deaths. It won only 3% of the vote during the most recent parliamentary elections in August 2020.
However, Sri Lanka's ongoing crisis has presented an opportunity for Dissanayake, 55, who has seen a surge of support based on his pledge to change the island's "corrupt" political culture. "Our country needs a new political culture," he said after casting his ballot on Saturday.
This election cycle has shifted focus away from the minority Tamil issue, with the nation's battered economy and recovery taking centre stage. All three frontrunners have pledged to adhere to the IMF bailout reforms, while Dissanayake and Premadasa aim to adjust the programme to provide more economic relief to the public.
Meanwhile, India has raised concerns regarding Dissanayake's recent statements regarding cancellation of Adani projects. This adds to India's concerns regarding the growing influence of China over the country which sits on vital shipping lanes through the Indian Ocean.
"Dissanayake's recent statement that he will cancel Adani's projects had put the Indian high commission in Colombo in a tizzy," an expert said.
"But given the geopolitical realities, he will have to work with India," she added citing Dissanayake's statements emphasising the need to work with India as proof.
