CHENNAI: In the lead-up to the COP28 to be held in Dubai, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released a damning report that univocally says inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptation had left the world exposed.
The report titled "Underfinanced Underprepared" said despite the clear signs of accelerating climate risks and impacts worldwide, the progress on climate adaptation was slowing on all three fronts - finance, planning and implementation - when it should be accelerating. As a result, the costs of adaptation for developing countries are estimated to be in the plausible central range of US$215 billion to US$387 billion per year this decade.
The report said the current climate action is woefully inadequate to meet the temperature and adaptation goals of the Paris Agreement. While global average temperatures are already exceeding 1.1° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, current plans reflected in the nationally determined contribution (NDCs) are putting us on a path towards 2.4°C to 2.8°C by the end of the century.
2023 is already the worst year on record with multi-billion dollar climate disasters that were far more disruptive and deadly with temperature records toppling globally and regionally. Storms, floods, heatwaves and wildfires caused devastation in several parts of the world.
Inger Andersen, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of the UNEP, said all these would have massive implications for people left to face the full force of climate impacts without any shield. "Based on a detailed update, the adaptation finance gap now stands at US$194-366 billion per year, with adaptation finance needs in developing countries likely to be 10-18 times as great as finance flows – over 50 per cent higher than the previous range estimate. At the same time, new adaptation projects are being added more slowly and the number of new national adaptation planning instruments is plateauing," she said.
Pledges thrown out of window
Despite pledges made at COP26 in Glasgow to double adaptation finance support to around $40 billion per year by 2025, public multilateral and bilateral adaptation finance flows to developing countries declined by 15% to around $21 billion in 2021.
The report cites a recent study that indicates the 55 most climate-vulnerable economies alone have already experienced loss and damage valued at more than $500 billion in the last two decades. Costs are likely to rise steeply in the coming decades, particularly in the absence of forceful mitigation and adaptation.
Dhruba Purkayastha, India Director of Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) told TNIE: “Seen in the context of India, which is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world, domestic finance, particularly public finance at the subnational level will likely continue to play a prominent role in bridging the adaptation finance gap. It is, therefore, necessary to strengthen the fiscal position of states by better alignment of fiscal devolution to vulnerability which is not the case with current Finance Commissions. It is equally important that India develops a template for tracking and tagging adaptation related expenditures, as this would help in moving towards a credible adaptation finance/funding plan.”
While the report talks of seven ways to increase financing and bridge the gap, it also points out that adaptation needs are local public goods and would need public finance investments by developing countries, which "if obtained from borrowings would increase indebtedness for vulnerable countries in the Global South,” opined Malini Chakravarty from CPI.
COP28 must set momentum
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, commenting on the report's findings, said: "All parties must operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund at COP28 this year. And we need new and early pledges to get the fund started on a strong footing. We are in an adaptation emergency. We must act like it. And take steps to close the adaptation gap, now."
The UNEP said together with the first Global Stocktake, the COP28 can provide a more robust framework for adaptation finance needs, without losing sight of ramping up mitigation.
Developed countries created this mess
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated what remains of the global carbon budget - a benchmark to keeping global warming below 1.5'C - is about 500 GtCO2. The amount will be depleted by the end of the decade at the current rate of global emissions. The developed countries that are responsible for over 75% of historical emissions, continue to play 'villain'.
According to an analysis done by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), developed countries are projected to collectively emit around 3.7 giga tonnes extra carbon dioxide in 2030, against the reduction goals expressed in their NDCs under the 2016 Paris Agreement. This represents a 38% emission overshoot, with the United States, European Union and Russia responsible for 83% of this. Only two developed countries - Norway & Belarus - are on track to achieve their reduction commitments by 2030.
The mitigation efforts of developed countries impact the carbon budget available to developing nations, which need sufficient carbon space to address their economic and social development challenges and ensure a just transition.
G Sundarrajan, member, Tamil Nadu Governing Council on Climate Change, told TNIE: "Clearly, the inaction on the part of developed countries has made it impossible to keep global warming below 1.5'C. There will be an overshoot and we may even breach 2'C before there would be some recovery, if stringent actions are taken now. The adaptation gap also shows that time is running out."
Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Fellow, CEEW, said, “The numbers are clear – even in this critical decade, developed countries are not projected to meet their 2030 NDC targets. This failure has implications for the limited global carbon budget available now, especially for developing countries like India."
Harjeet Singh, head, global political strategy at Climate Action Network International, said the widening gap in adaptation finance is a stark indicator of years of neglect, leaving countless vulnerable people exposed to escalating climate calamities.
