CHENNAI: This week, two important reports were published ahead of the UN Climate Conference in Dubai (COP28) that have already set the alarm bells ringing. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Production Gap report reveals governments’ plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, which means substantial increase in greenhouse gases emission and associated health hazards.
The annual State of Climate Services report by World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) categorically says climate change might reverse decades of progress made towards better health, particularly in the most vulnerable communities. If one reads both the reports together, it is clear the world is at the crossroads and climate change is triggering an unprecedented health crisis.
What can we expect from COP28 under UAE Presidency? While it is commendable that UAE took efforts and will host the first-ever Health Day at this year’s COP, there is criticism that the draft “health and climate ministerial declaration’ set to be launched at the COP on December 3 fails to make any reference to fossil fuels and their health impact.
COP28 President-Designate Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who himself is the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, said the declaration was a voluntary call to action that sits outside the formal UNFCCC negotiations and reflects the shared views and aspirations of countries as “we collectively aim to safeguard and invest in our population’s health”.
Fossil fuels must be phased-out
Shweta Narayan, International Climate and Health Campaigner with Health Care Without Harm, told TNIE: “We welcome the COP28 Presidency making health a focus of the negotiations and we believe that in order to make health truly a part of the climate discussions we need that every government must put people’s health and well-being first, starting to fully commit to a rapid, just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels - thereby addressing the key drivers of the climate crisis.” She said around the world, the impacts of increasing floods, heat waves, fires and droughts drive home the point that the climate crisis is also, profoundly, a health crisis. People are being displaced, suffering and dying due to warming temperatures. At current levels of warming, health systems are already at their limits.
“The UNEP Production Gap report is very concerning and exposes the hypocrisy of countries that present themselves as climate champions on the world stage but in fact are intensifying the climate crisis through increased production of coal, oil, and gas,” Shweta said.
Supporting the call to curb fossil fuel usage, Dr Maria Neira, Director, Environment, Climate Change and Health, WHO, told TNIE “People are dying from air pollutants that result from our dependence on fossil fuels. These pollutants cause lung cancer, heart disease, stroke, neurological diseases, asthma, COPD, and many other illnesses. Over 99% of people around the world are breathing air that exceeds WHO air quality guidelines, causing 7 million premature deaths every year.
Accelerating access to clean energy to mitigate climate change, to reduce air pollution is therefore critical for our health. Any postponement, delays, means more disease, more deaths. How many are we ready to accept? We need to dramatically reduce fossil fuels if we want to reduce millions of premature deaths each year from air pollution”. “Agreeing to cut down on emissions from coal, oil and gas will be necessary at this COP, which will see the full spectrum of fossil fuel interests. It therefore necessitates the global health community to demand the fastest reduction in usage of fossil fuels,” opines Aarti Khosla, founder and director of Climate Trends.
Who is expanding production?
While 17 of the 20 countries profiled in the Production Gap report have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions, and many have launched initiatives to reduce emissions from fossil fuel production activities, most continue to promote, subsidise, support, and plan on the expansion of fossil fuel production, including India. None have committed to reduce coal, oil, and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
The war in Ukraine, the ensuing pressures on global energy supply and record high prices for internationally traded gas have further spurred plans for and investment in liquefied natural gas infrastructure by exporters and importers alike. Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author on the report and scientist at Stockholm Environment Institute, said: “We find that many governments are promoting fossil gas as an essential ‘transition’ fuel but with no apparent plans to transition away from it later.
“But science says we must start reducing global coal, oil, and gas production and use now — along with scaling up clean energy, reducing methane emissions from all sources, and other climate actions — to keep the 1.5°C goal alive.” 20 countries with newly expanded country profiles are Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, UAE, UK of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and United States. Altogether, these countries account for 82% of production and 73% of consumption of the world’s fossil fuel supply.
India should lead the way
India, currently, ranks second globally on coal imports, 24th in oil imports and 22 in gas imports. And, India is increasing its coal production. Ashish Fernandes, CEO, Climate Risk Horizons, says, “India is right to call out the hypocrisy of the developed world by insisting on a comprehensive fossil fuel phase out that includes oil and gas. But at the same time, India cannot keep using the West’s hypocrisy to hide its own abject failure to rein in the growth of coal. Renewable energy is the cheapest new source of electricity in India, and the cost of battery and other storage is also falling fast.
“Our analysis shows that scrapping plans for new coal and even retiring some expensive coal plants while doubling down on renewables will lead to immense savings for the power system as a whole, benefitting state governments and consumers. There is no economic or financial rationale for the construction of new coal power plants in India – renewable energy is more than able to meet increased demand if the right policies are enacted. The public investment that is meant to go to new coal would be more productive if spent on India’s underfunded energy transition.”
