DUBAI: As the dust settles in Dubai after two weeks of tantalising ifs and buts over the future of fossil fuels - primary cause for global warming - the question remains whether the 'North Star', the term coined by COP28 President Sultan Al-Jaber to describe the 1.5°C limit, is dead or alive. Everyone hailed the COP28 outcome, also known as the UAE Consensus, which urged all the parties to transition away from fossil fuels. While it was widely seen as historic, climate scientists griped that it was "too little, too late".
In his speech at the closing plenary, Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary, United Nations Climate Change, said: "We are currently headed for just under 3 degrees. This still equates to mass human suffering, which is why COP28 needed to move the needle forward.”
The text (UAE Consensus) leaves a lot of room for interpretation. "If all countries don’t take the most ambitious approach, loopholes leave us vulnerable to fossil fuel vested interests, which could crash our ability to protect people everywhere against rising climate impacts. This agreement is an [ambition] floor, not a ceiling, so the crucial years ahead must keep ramping up ambition and climate action," Simon said.
Climate scientists say overshooting 1.5°C is fast becoming inevitable. Minimising the magnitude and duration of overshoot requires rapid phase down of fossil fuels, but COP28 underachieved on that front. Prof Johan Rockström, Director, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research said science is clear. Dubai was the grand mitigation moment for coal, oil and gas, which needed to shift from increasing 1% per year to decreasing globally by at least 5% per year, in order to protect the remaining carbon sinks and stocks in ecosystems, plus building resilience and new carbon sinks in agriculture. "So far, we have failed, taking us on a dangerous path towards losing sight of the Paris Agreement target — the 1.5°C biophysical limit."
Ploy Achakulwisut, Research Fellow at Stockholm Environment Institute, who is also part of the UN Secretary-General's Climate Action Team, said: “The fast-shrinking carbon budget means that governments and the private sector must stop enabling new fossil fuel projects, accelerate the early retirement of existing infrastructure, and plan for a well-managed phase-out of fossil fuel production and consumption alongside rapidly increasing the pace of renewable energy deployment. High-income countries must lead this transition and provide support for countries with lower capacities, with all countries striving for an equitable and just transition away from fossil fuels.”
But, what did we get?
The UAE Consensus was a watered down pact that called upon countries to contribute towards transitioning away from fossil fuels so as to achieve net zero by 2050. There was not enough political will to recognise the devastating consequences of an impending 'overshoot' and push for fossil fuels phase-out. But one should acknowledge that this was the first time ever in three decades of climate negotiations that the term fossil fuel was used in the final text. However, the text provides no time schedules and no targets. To keep 1.5°C alive or at least bridge the gap, production and usage of fossil fuels must be rapidly reduced. How is it going to happen? There are no clear answers at this juncture.
As per the recent UNEP Production Gap report, 17 of the 20 countries that pledged to achieve net-zero emissions, continue to promote, subsidise, support and plan the expansion of fossil fuel production, including India. Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy, Climate Action Network International, said the COP28 resolution was marred by loopholes that offer the fossil fuel industry numerous escape routes, relying on unproven, unsafe technologies.
The hypocrisy of wealthy nations, particularly the US, as they continue to expand fossil fuel operations massively while paying lip service to the green transition, stands exposed. "Developing countries, still dependent on fossil fuels for energy, income and jobs, are left without robust guarantees for adequate financial support in their urgent and equitable transition to renewable energy," he said.
Coal on decline
After recording an all-time high global coal demand in 2023, where its production touched 8.5 billion tonnes, experts say a decline was in sight. For the first time, the International Energy Agency, in its annual coal market report, predicted a drop in global consumption by 2026. However, there is a stark difference among regions.
What is the reality? Did the U.A.E. Consensus do enough to save the world from impending environmental catastrophes or was COP28 another missed opportunity? Experts warn that the warming overshoot is unavoidable
