NEW DELHI: There are enormous challenges facing the country’s food stock and forest conservation efforts this year. Warmer winter and the emerging geopolitical situations in the Red Sea could impact India’s domestic food supply. Besides, a whole swathe of forest land is expected to be diverted for non-forestry purposes following the amendment of the forest conservation laws, which could trigger protests in different parts of the country.
The current warm winter has been a concern for rabi crops production. The Indian Meteorological Department said that the winter temperature was 2-4°C higher than normal in all wheat growing regions in December last. Like the last two years, experts fear the early arrival of heat waves as strong El Nino conditions could persist till May this year. And the early increase of temperature could impact India’s wheat production and buffer stock.
El Nino, a climate pattern due to the warming of the East Pacific Ocean, is synonymous with the weakening of the Southwest monsoon in India. Last year, it weakened the Southwest monsoon and reduced the soil moisture for rabi crops, which put further stress on farmers as they were forced to increase investment in irrigation.
Globally, food availability will be a challenge. Last year, due to high international prices, farmers increased their sowing areas. But adverse weather conditions lowered the positive sentiment of 2024. Experts speculated that lesser production of rice, wheat, palm oil, pulses and oilseeds kept exports down. Besides, China building up its food stock since the past two years, kept its global availability under pressure.
Moreover, the recent attack on cargo ships in the Red Sea emerged as another geopolitical challenge to the global food situation after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There are reports of ship hijacking and attacks on shipments. Ships are being diverted to longer routes which cost time and money. India imports lentils, peas, dry fruits and spices through the Red Sea while exporting rice, spices and others through these routes. The Russia-Ukraine war impacted shipment in 2022-23. The Red Sea situation is expected to impact shipments further.
All those factors can trigger a spike in food prices. But since this is an election year, the government would try to reduce food inflation by, say, reducing import duty and curbing export to control domestic prices. But after the general elections, experts say, the prices of food grains could see a sharp jump. On the environment front, 2024 may not be a happy year for forest conservation. Recent amendments in the forest conservation Act are expected to result in massive diversion of forest land for non-forest purposes. Protests from communities living in forests cannot be ruled out.
Despite the Supreme Court’s ruling against ex-post facto green clearance, there is a growing trend of such approvals of mining and infrastructure projects on forest land. Recently, the SC issued stay orders on a couple of mining projects for which the government had provided ex-post facto forest clearance. The SC had ruled in March 2022 that ex-post facto approval can be granted only in exceptional circumstances after taking all environmental impacts into consideration.
Moreover, legal environment experts have raised an alarm over such a trend. They fear that the amendment of forest conservation laws have widened the gap for exploitation. There are reports that the Union Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has approved developmental project proposals on forest land like construction of dams, etc., by different state governments. For instance, the Haryana government allowed the construction of a university on protected forest land in the Aravalli hills, which was stuck over the past many years.
The upcoming year would also be a talking point for the conservation of big cats. The government is scheduled to take up the tiger reintroduction initiative in Cambodia and promote more transboundary conservation cooperation with Bangladesh. Another batch of cheetahs would be coming in, probably from Kenya. Moreover, a new breeding centre is coming up in Gujarat, which was not in the Cheetah Action Plan earlier.
Access to safe, nutritious meals
According to the World Bank, there is food security when all people have unhindered access to safe and nutritious meals