CHENNAI: Last month, Tamil Nadu witnessed one of the most unprecedented rainfall and flooding events in its history, costing 31 lives and thousands of crores in economic loss. In fact, 2023 was a year of humongous natural disasters.
In India, cloudburst in North Sikkim triggered flash floods while heavy rains in Himachal Pradesh set off landslides. Cyclone Michaung drowned the metropolitan city of Chennai. Elsewhere, destructive wildfires hit Hawaii and earthquakes struck Turkey killing tens of thousands of people.
The World Meteorological Organisation confirmed 2023 as the warmest year on record. The worst hit are the vulnerable communities for whom the climate crisis is a health crisis. Things are only going to manifest further going by the latest report released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) during its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
The report titled “Qualifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health” analysed six climate-driven events, which include floods, droughts, heat waves, tropical storms, wildfires and rising sea levels for their direct and indirect impact on health.
The findings show that by 2050 climate change will place immense strain on global healthcare systems, causing 14.5 million deaths, $12.5 trillion in economic losses and $1.1 trillion in extra costs to healthcare systems around the globe.
The analysis is based on scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the most likely trajectory for the planet’s rising average temperature -- 2.5°C to 2.9°C over pre-industrial levels.Shyam Bishen, Head, Centre for Health and Healthcare and member of the Executive Committee, World Economic Forum, warned:
“Over the next decade, the failure to mitigate and adapt to climate change will represent our gravest risk globally, with changing climate and weather patterns already leading to alarming trends.”Prarthana Borah, sustainability leader, said understanding the impact of climate change on health is essential if we have to accelerate mitigation solutions.
While the direct impact is more easily identified, it is difficult to see the indirect impact because applied studies like the WEF report are few. “Every step must be taken to educate the healthcare industry not only to understand the issue but to take mitigation steps. Active participation of healthcare workers in the climate dialogue is essential, which would be a progressive step.
COP28 was historic to include a specific health day and positioning health within climate negotiations.”Biggest killers: Floods & droughtsThe new report identifies floods and droughts as the leading causes of mortality and heat waves as the biggest cause of economic losses.
Floods were found to pose the highest acute risk of climate-induced mortality, accounting for 8.5 million deaths by 2050. South-East Asia, northern South America and Middle Africa represent key regions projected to face the highest impact due to floods and rainfall.
In fact, from 1970 to 2019, floods accounted for 59% of climate-related disasters and 77% of climate-related deaths in South America. Additionally, the midsection of Africa is projected to experience a distinct rise in flood risk.Droughts, indirectly linked to extreme heat, are the second-highest cause of mortality, with an anticipated 3.2 million deaths.
Heat waves take the highest economic toll at an estimated $7.1 trillion by 2050 due to the loss in productivity. Excess deaths attributed to air pollution, caused by fine particulate and ozone pollution, are expected to be the largest contributor to premature death with almost 9 million deaths a year.Climate change will also trigger a catastrophic rise across several climate-sensitive disease outcomes, including vector-borne disease, which will likely impact previously less affected regions such as Europe and the United States.
By 2050, an additional 500 million people may be at risk of exposure to vector-borne diseases, the report finds.“The climate crisis is a health crisis, and it is driving a vicious cycle of disease, economic devastation and suffering. It is clear from this report that we are still to understand the full impact,” said Vanessa Kerry, CEO of Seed Global Health and WHO Special Envoy for Climate Change and Health.
“If we fail to act, not only will the death toll be staggering but we also risk losing progress made over decades to improve health outcomes around the world. Countries least able to afford these shocks – and who contribute the least to global emissions – will be impacted the most.”Vulnerable populations & equity gapAccording to the United Nations, approximately 3.3 billion to 3.6 billion people live in areas highly vulnerable to climate change.
Eight countries most affected by climate change compiled by the United World Food Programme includes six African countries. While developed regions account for two-thirds of global emissions, Africa – which only produces about 2-3% of global emissions – is already suffering a disproportionate amount of the pain from climate change, according to the WMO.In southern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, the resulting productivity loss may reach 5%, according to the International Labour Organization. By 2050, there could be as many as 1.2 billion climate refugees.
More than half of the world’s population will live in regions with severely limited water supplies by 2040. This includes extensive regions in China and India, the report said.Another important aspect highlighted in the report is the alarming percentage of morbidity. It is projected that only 21% of the overall health impact will be attributable to actual mortality, while 79% is due to long-term disabilities and health conditions that developed subsequent to the climate event.
This trend raises concerns about the lasting effects of climate events on the well-being of individuals. It also highlights an alarming trend of climate events leading to generations of unhealthy individuals. The prevalence of stunted development among children and generalised anxiety disorder illustrates why morbidity may have such a negative impact over the rest of the century.
The incidence of both is significantly higher than almost any other disease or condition, except for malaria, which follows close behind.Need for collaborationDespite these stark findings, the new research shows that there is still time for global stakeholders to take decisive, strategic action to counter these forecasts and mitigate the health consequences of climate change. Intensified multi stakeholder collaboration, across borders and industries, as well as a comprehensive transformation of the global health system to make it more resilient, adaptable and equitable will be crucial steps to achieve this.
“Our analysis sheds light on the profound impact of climate change on mortality, morbidity and the interconnected macroeconomic landscape, with healthcare systems alone likely having to bear an additional cost of $1.1 trillion due to climate change,” said Sam Glick, Global Leader of Health and Life Sciences at Oliver Wyman. “It is clear that we need sustained action to mitigate the far-reaching consequences of climate change and ensure a healthy future for all.”