CHENNAI : At the UN’s COP28 climate change conference in December, countries reached an historic agreement to triple global renewables capacity by 2030. The target would see the world reach 60% renewable electricity, almost halving power sector emissions and putting the world on a pathway aligned with the 1.5’C climate goal.
While many were skeptical initially, the ‘distant’ target seems to be in sight. According to a report by London-based global energy think tank Ember, renewables generated a record 30% of global electricity in 2023, mainly driven by the growth in solar and wind. The forecast shows 2024 would be the first year with falling fossil generation, marking 2023 as the likely peak of power sector emissions. The report titled ‘Global Electricity Review’ provides the first comprehensive overview of the global power system in 2023 based on country-level data. It is the world’s first open dataset on electricity generation covering 80 countries representing 92% of global electricity demand, as well as historic data for 215 countries. The analysis also includes data for 13 geographic and economic groupings, such as Africa, Asia, the EU and the G7. It also dives deeper into the top six CO2 emitting countries and regions, which account for over 72% of global power sector emissions.
In 2023, solar generation saw a vertical growth of 23%, wind 10%, while fossil fuel generation grew by just 0.8%. The report said China was the main contributor last year, accounting for 51% of the additional global solar generation and 60% of new global wind generation. Other major contributors to global wind growth include the EU (24%) and Brazil (7%), while global solar growth was provided by the EU (12%) and the US (11%). Together the top four solar growth economies – China, the EU, the US and Brazil – accounted for 81% of solar power growth in 2023. Combined with nuclear, the world generated almost 40% of its electricity from low-carbon sources in 2023. As a result, the CO2 intensity of global power generation reached a new record low, 12% lower than its peak in 2007, the report said.
Dave Jones, one of the lead authors and Global Insights Programme Director of Ember, said: “The renewables future has arrived. Solar, in particular, is accelerating faster than anyone thought possible. The decline of power sector emissions is now inevitable. 2023 was likely the pivot point – peak emissions in the power sector – a major turning point in the history of energy. There’s an unprecedented opportunity for countries that choose to be at the forefront of the clean energy future.”
India: Path towards net zero
While India overtook Japan to become the third-largest solar power generator in 2023, providing 5.9% of global growth in solar, the country’s power sector emissions are expected to increase for several years until clean sources grow fast enough to meet all of the rise in electricity demand.
The Indian government has set out ambitious renewables targets, which will see solar generation reach 602 TWh and wind generation reach 237 TWh by 2030. Achieving these targets would require an annual growth rate of 27% for solar and 16% for wind, which was achieved in 2023.
India is one of the few countries planning to triple renewable capacity by 2030, aiming for 509 GW. According to Ember analysis, annual capacity additions need to significantly increase for India to meet this capacity target. Individual states like Gujarat, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu etc are attracting a lot of investments in renewables.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin has set an ambitious target to achieve net-zero emission before 2070 and recently the state was first to come out with greenhouse gas inventory.
The Ember’s report said India’s solar generation has been increasing significantly over the last two decades, from just 0.01 TWh in 2000 to 113 TWh in 2023. Most of the growth came in the past five years. Generation in 2023 was 17 times larger than in 2015 (6.6 TWh). Solar more than doubled (+145%, +67 TWh) since 2019. However, coal has accounted for the largest rise since 2000, increasing by nearly four times (+1,090 TWh) from 390 TWh in 2000 to 1,480 TWh in 2023.
As a result, India’s power sector emissions have also more than tripled since 2000. However, had wind and solar generation not grown over the last two decades and this demand had been met by coal, India’s power sector emissions in 2023 would have been 13% higher. Given the current growth of electricity demand and coal generation, emissions are unlikely to peak soon. But still, India’s per capita emissions from the power sector are the fourth lowest in the G20, despite high coal reliance.
Clean energy will outweigh demand
2024 will likely see a fall in power sector emissions, as bumper growth in clean generation is likely to outweigh higher electricity demand growth. The Ember analysis forecasts that electricity demand will increase significantly by 968 TWh in 2024. But clean generation will likely grow even faster, adding an estimated 1,300 TWh in 2024, which is more than double the increase in 2023 (+493 TWh). As a result, Ember estimates fossil generation is set to decline slightly by 333 TWh or 2% in 2024.
The latest solar forecast from BloombergNEF and wind forecast from Global Wind Energy Council shows renewables continue to rise from the record levels in 2023, throughout this decade. Almost 90% of the forecast rise in clean generation is driven by solar and wind additions, with nuclear, hydro, bioenergy and geothermal making up most of the rest. Even if the annual increase in demand rises from the historic 2.5% per year to the 3.5% increase envisaged by 2030 in the IEA Net Zero Emissions scenario, clean generation is forecast to rise even more, reducing fossil fuel consumption and power sector emissions.