While countries are locked in a power tussle over climate finance at the United Nations Climate Conference (COP29) in Baku, the least developed countries, especially those facing constant violence and conflict, are crying in despair with a staggering surge in the number of displaced people.
A figure that has nearly doubled in the past decade to exceed 120 million. While the familiar spectre of war and conflict continues to drive millions from their homes, the growing shadow of climate change is becoming an equally potent force of upheaval. For many, the convergence of these crises is inescapable, propelling them from one danger to another.
Take Bahadur Khan, a 60-year-old Afghan refugee whose story exemplifies the grim realities faced by millions. Displaced not once, but three times over the course of his life, Khan’s journey began in the early 1990s when Afghanistan’s civil war forced him and his family to seek safety in neighbouring Pakistan. The respite was short-lived. In 2010, catastrophic monsoon rains swept through Pakistan, submerging their home and leaving Khan scrambling to protect his family. Twelve years later, another monsoon devastated the region, with floodwaters from the Kabul River destroying what little they had rebuilt. Standing amidst the wreckage, Khan described the night his family was uprooted again. “That night was unforgettable as our house was inundated within minutes. We had no other option but to leave at once,” he said.
Khan’s story was captured by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in its report titled “No Escape: On the frontlines of climate change, conflict and forced displacement” released during the COP29.
Khan’s story is not unique. The UNHCR report says millions of displaced people are living in host countries that are themselves grappling with the devastating impacts of climate change. From the arid plains of Chad to the flood-prone camps of Bangladesh, displaced communities are often left with no choice but to rebuild their lives in some of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world.
More than 7,00,000 refugees from Sudan, for example, have sought refuge in Chad—a country plagued by extreme weather patterns, from heavy rains that destroy shelters to sweltering heat that makes daily life almost unbearable. In eastern Chad, where many Sudanese refugees now live, the struggle for survival is compounded by security risks from armed groups and a severe lack of humanitarian aid.
The situation is equally grim for Rohingya refugees in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. Already displaced by violence, many have faced further devastation from climate-related disasters like Cyclone Mocha, which struck the region in May 2023. Among the affected was Ma Phyu Ma, who had already been living in an overcrowded camp for internally displaced people since 2012. The cyclone swept away what little her family owned, including the fragile hut that served as their shelter and the nets they used to fish for sustenance. “Every little piece lost was precious to me,” she said. “We had very little to begin with. The hut was our shelter. The boat and nets allowed us to fish. The clothes were my source of income. It is painful for me to lose everything.”
These stories of loss and resilience are becoming increasingly common as the effects of climate change accelerate. According to recent studies, 90 million forcibly displaced people live in regions with high or extreme exposure to climate-related hazards.
Projections suggest that by 2040, the number of countries facing such hazards will rise from three to 65, with many hosting large displaced populations, including India. Refugee camps and settlements, already struggling with inadequate infrastructure, are predicted to endure twice as many days of extreme heat by 2050, further exacerbating the challenges faced by those who live there.
The Horn of Africa offers another stark illustration of the climate-displacement nexus. Between late 2020 and early 2023, the region experienced a devastating drought followed by torrential rains and flooding. In Somalia, more people reported being displaced by natural disasters than by conflict, a trend that highlights the growing role of climate change in forcing migration. In 2022 alone, over 6,00,000 people fled violence, while 1.3 million were displaced due to the drought—the highest number in over a decade.
Despite the scale of the crisis, global responses have been slow and fragmented. Displaced people are often excluded from decision-making processes that shape their future, with only a fraction of national climate strategies and disaster risk reduction plans explicitly addressing their needs. At the same time, funding gaps remain stark. While billions of dollars are earmarked globally for climate adaptation, the vast majority is spent in middle-income countries, leaving fragile states with a paltry $2 per person annually. This disparity means that the communities least responsible for carbon emissions are bearing the highest costs, often without the resources to adapt.
Recognising these gaps, a new initiative known as the “Baku Call on Climate Action for Peace, Relief, and Recovery” was launched at COP29. Backed by nations from both the Global North and South, the initiative aims to tackle the intertwined challenges of climate change, conflict, and displacement. Central to this effort is the creation of the Baku Climate and Peace Action Hub, which seeks to streamline access to climate finance and technical support for vulnerable nations.
Speaking to a select group of Indian journalists, Ambassador Elshad Iskandarov of the COP29 Presidency said the initiative builds on established frameworks such as COP27’s Climate Responses for Sustaining Peace and COP28’s Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery, and Peace, while adding practical innovations.
In a conflict-ridden country, global climate funds, multilateral development banks or donors hesitate to infuse money because there is a risk. So, the Baku call seeks to address this by providing a centralised mechanism to coordinate efforts across stakeholders — governments, UN agencies, think tanks and peace-building organisations.
“The hub will serve as a unified entry point for vulnerable nations, ensuring streamlined access to climate finance and technical support. It will do vulnerable mapping based on a set of criteria, develop pilot projects tailored to conflict-affected areas. In regions with strong non-state violent actors, we will ensure that funds reach the communities in need without falling into the wrong hands,” Iskandarov said and added some pilot projects are already in development.
He said Green Climate Fund, United Nations Development Programme and International Organisation of Migration have signed a letter of intent during the COP29.