CHENNAI: The world is standing at a pivotal crossroads in the fight against climate change. A newly released Emissions Gap Report 2024 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has delivered a stark warning: if nations do not close a massive emissions gap by increasing climate pledges and delivering immediate actions, the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C will be lost within a few years. The report, No More Hot Air … Please!, calls for a G20-led global mobilisation to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions drastically.
As the upcoming COP29 conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, approaches, nations are under intense pressure to revise and strengthen their new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by February 2025 to prevent a climate catastrophe.
“Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now before the next round of climate pledges – or the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead, and well below 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. Andersen's remarks underscore the urgent need for decisive action at COP29 to set the stage for more ambitious NDCs in early 2025.
She said as things stand, the current NDCs have put the world on track for global temperature rise of 2.6 to 2.8 degrees this century and even worse, policies currently in place are insufficient to meet even these NDCs. If nothing changes and continues as we are, the temperature will rise by around 3.1 degrees by 2100. The consequences would frankly be unthinkable.
According to the UNEP report, Global emissions reached a record high of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2023, an increase of 1.3% from 2022. This rise was largely driven by emissions from the power sector, which emitted 15.1 GtCO2e, followed by transport (8.4 GtCO2e), agriculture (6.5 GtCO2e), and industry (6.5 GtCO2e). International aviation showed the sharpest rebound, with a 19.5% increase as travel demand neared pre-pandemic levels.
The G20 nations accounted for 77% of global emissions in 2023, with China, the United States, and India as the top three emitters. China alone contributed approximately 16 GtCO2e, reflecting a 5.2% rise from 2022. The US’ emissions totaled 5.97 GtCO2e, showing a slight decline of 1.4%, but per capita emissions remained close to three times the global average. India, the third-largest emitter, saw a 6.1% increase, reaching 4.14 GtCO2e. Despite this rise, India’s per capita emissions remain significantly lower at 2.9 tCO2e indicating its relatively modest historical contributions and ongoing development challenges.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the message of the UNEP emission gap report is clear," we are teetering on a planetary tightrope. Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most.”
Guterres called for COP29 to drive progress on two key fronts: increasing ambition in the upcoming NDCs due by early 2025 and scaling up financial support for developing nations.
The UNEP report presents a clear roadmap for the urgent measures needed to close the emissions gap. It emphasizes that global emissions must be reduced by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 from 2019 levels to have a realistic chance of achieving the 1.5°C target. With emissions rising in 2023, achieving these cuts now requires a drastic 7.5% reduction annually until 2035 for the 1.5°C goal, and 4% annually for the 2°C goal.
The stakes are higher than ever, Andersen warned, stressing that even if the world overshoots 1.5°C, it is vital to keep striving for a net-zero and sustainable future. “Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved, and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot,” she noted.
Despite the grim projections, the UNEP report presents a silver lining by highlighting the technical potential for substantial emission reductions. It estimates that up to 31 GtCO2e could be eliminated in 2030 and 41 GtCO2e in 2035 using existing technologies, representing approximately 52% and 72% of 2023 emissions, respectively. Key contributors to these reductions include increased deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies and wind energy, which could account for 27% of the total reduction potential in 2030 and 38% in 2035.
Forestry measures, such as reduced deforestation and reforestation efforts, could also play a critical role, accounting for around 20% of reductions in both years. Other significant opportunities include efficiency measures, electrification, and fuel switching in buildings, transport, and industry sectors.
However, delivering on these potentials will require massive investments. The report stresses the need for a minimum six-fold increase in global mitigation investments to achieve net-zero emissions. “We need to see a six-fold increase in the financing,” Andersen urged, “taking us from the current level of $6.7 trillion to about $11.7 trillion by 2035.” While these numbers may sound large, Andersen pointed out that they represent only a small fraction of global investments in infrastructure and are relatively modest compared to the costs of inaction.
The estimated incremental investment for achieving net-zero emissions stands at $0.9-$2.1 trillion annually. These investments are deemed affordable compared to the $110 trillion global economy and would yield returns by avoiding costs related to climate impacts, air pollution, ecosystem damage, and human health issues.
Climate activist Harjeet Singh, Global Engagement Director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, criticised the ongoing political inaction, stating, “Every fraction of fossil fuel emissions is pushing us closer to catastrophe. World leaders continue to drag their feet, protecting the interests of the fossil fuel industry, while people are suffering right now from the devastating impacts of a crisis they didn’t create.” Singh emphasised the need for wealthier nations to take responsibility, “At COP29, leaders must respond to the latest science and act on their fair share of responsibility.”
3 scenarios:
Intro: If only current NDCs are implemented and no further ambition is shown in the new pledges, the best we could expect to achieve is catastrophic global warming of up to 2.6°C over the course of the century
1. Full implementation of both unconditional and conditional NDCs – the latter those that require external support – would only reduce expected emissions in 2030 by 10 per cent, leading to predictions of up to 2.6°C of warming
2. Implementing current conditional NDCs would deliver up to 2.8°C of warming
3. Implementing only current policies would deliver up to 3.1°C of warming
* All these scenarios would cause debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies, and necessitate future costly and large-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to bring down the overshoot of the Paris targets.
Emission reductions required to align with 2°C pathways:
2030: 28%
2035: 37%
Reductions required to align with 1.5°C pathways:
2030: 42%
2035: 57%