
Los Angeles is still grappling with blazes that killed 27 people so far, burnt over 12,000 structures and forced more than two lakh people to evacuate. Wildfire expert at Climate Central, Kaitlyn Trudeau, tells Jitendra Choubey in an email interview that a range of climate change factors from lesser precipitation to fragile urban infrastructure, was responsible for the increased intensity of the fires. Kaitlyn had also worked as a cartographer for California State Parks.
1 What triggered the wildfires that spread to the affluent neighbourhood of Pacific Palisades of California in winter?
While the exact cause of the wildfires is still under investigation, we know that the situation was exacerbated by what we call “fire weather” – hot, dry, and windy weather that come together to set the stage for extreme fire behaviour. Prolonged drought conditions, driven by climate change, have left vegetation dry and highly flammable. Extreme heatwaves, which are now longer and occur with greater frequency and intensity due to human-caused climate change, further increase the risk of ignition and extreme fire behaviour. Additionally, as we saw this week, strong winds can play a significant role in both fanning the flames and creating new fires, as they can blow embers a considerable distance from the original fire.
2 How do scientists see abnormal wind events? Did the local met office issue any early warning signs or advisories?
The Santa Ana winds are strong, seasonal winds that commonly occur in this area in the winter months. They are known for being intense but nothing like what we saw on Tuesday night (January 7). Wind speeds of 100 mph blew through the region (similar to a Category 3 hurricane), which then caused all firefighting aircraft to be grounded as it was too dangerous to fly.
These winds spread fire across the region, and without firefighting aircraft, many communities burned without any help. Why exactly were the winds so strong this week? More research is needed to answer that question. Local news outlets warned citizens on Monday night to prepare for “life-threatening wind gusts and storms,” as the National Weather Service had issued warnings across the region.
3 How frequent is wildfire in winter in California or other regions? Generally, wildfire is synonymous with summer. There are reports of water shortages, which delayed the extinguishing of the fire.
We’re seeing more intense and prolonged heat waves, which dry out the landscape, making it more vulnerable to wildfires. A longer fire season—now nearly year-round in some areas—is becoming the norm as warmer springs and delayed autumn extend the window for wildfire activity. Wildfires have occurred in Southern California in the late fall months in recent years, but it is more unusual to see wildfires in January.
There weren’t water shortages necessarily as the area’s reservoirs are either above average or full at this time. The reason firefighters couldn’t access water in some situations is because the demand on the system was so enormous that the water they stored to be used for fire hydrants quickly ran out.
Normally, you would not need to use as much water as was needed because firefighters get help from aircraft, which usually drop large amounts of water. However, because of the high winds, all firefighting aircraft were grounded and so they had to use more water from the hydrants than typically would be necessary.
4 A recent report by Climate Central shows that 63% (39 out of 62) of US cities lose at least a week of winter days each year due to climate change. Do you think the current fire is a result of warmer winters?
Warmer winter temperatures definitely have played a role. Additionally, the LA area has seen very little precipitation for many months and is experiencing moderate drought conditions. Last winter, the area saw a large amount of precipitation which led to new growth of vegetation the following spring. After a very dry summer and fall, this new vegetation has dried out on the landscape and has served as more fuel for these fires.
5 Is there any direct connection between climate change and wildfire in winter?
Yes, climate change can influence winter wildfires. Winter is the fastest warming season for most of the country. We’ve seen more winter heat waves, which reduce snowpack (a critical water supply for the West), leading to earlier snowmelt. Winter is usually the only time of year that California gets any precipitation. However, climate change is causing more frequent and prolonged periods of drought. Climate-driven changes like shifting precipitation patterns can create conditions where wildfires become more frequent, even in winter.
6 Is the current urban infrastructure enough to address the wildfire crisis? Does the government need to rethink and reorient investment to create a more climate-resilient infrastructure in the future?
Our current infrastructure was built to withstand a climate that no longer exists. Time and time again we see extreme weather events cripple cities and devastate communities. There is a lot more that can be done to create resilient communities including updating critical infrastructure, switching to renewable forms of energy, and educating the public on why addressing climate change needs to be a priority.
7 Any estimate of how much carbon or greenhouse gas is released into the atmosphere every year due to wildfire? What are some short, mid-term, and long-term interventions that could reduce it?
Annual CO₂ emissions from wildfires, 2003 to 2024, were around 6.17 billion tonnes, whereas the US contributed 159.62 million tonnes (mt). Brazil made the highest contribution, 845.41 mt, followed by Canada, 622.21 mt. In the short and mid-term, we should really focus on preventing wildfires. In the US, most wildfires are started by people. But in the long term, we must dramatically reduce the amount of carbon pollution we’re emitting into the atmosphere. There simply is no substitute.
8 What should be considered while planning a city in a green belt or near a forest in the age of climate change?
I’m not sure we’re best suited to answer this question as it’s not necessarily our area of expertise. However, some options to consider include implementing fire-resilient designs, ecosystem management, infrastructure upgrades, and community education and preparedness—just to name a few.
Although there are many ways we can better build our communities, it’s important to remember that despite our efforts, it’s going to become increasingly difficult to prepare for the future when we can no longer use the experiences of the past to guide us.
Climate change is changing the baseline of the planet and pushing our world outside the bounds of what we’ve experienced in the past. The best thing we can do to prepare our communities for the future is to dramatically begin to reduce carbon emissions as fast as we can.