Urban flooding loss to touch $5 billion by 2030 in Indian cities: Report
Indian cities must adapt to the growing impacts of climate change while investing in resilient municipal infrastructure and services to avert annual damage and loss of billions of dollars in flooding and urban heat-related impacts, says a new study.
A dedicated programme is needed to support resilient urban development in the country and key priorities must include investing in a 10-point action plan for cities, a national and state urban resilience programme to address flooding and extreme heat, the World Bank report said and recommended a financing and implementation strategy.
As per the report, ‘Towards Resilient and Prosperous Cities in India’, by the World Bank in collaboration with Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), Indian cities will be unable to reach their full potential if they stayed on their current development trajectory. They are highly vulnerable to climate impacts because of the heavy concentration of people and assets and limited capacity to manage the impacts.
Rising risk of urban flooding
Under continuing urbanisation, climate impacts and without any remedial actions, the annual losses from storm water-related or pluvial flooding are expected to be $5 billion by 2030, and between $14 billion and $30 billion by 2070. The current loss is around $4 billion a year, it revealed.
The report projected that India’s urban population is expected to double to 951 million by 2050 and reach 1.1 billion by 2070. This will add around 45,000 sq km of new urban areas between 2023 and 2050, and as much as 75,000 sq km between 2023 and 2070. If not managed well, this massive increase will substantially increase flood impacts while leading to contamination of water resources, supply and sanitation networks, leading to consequent health hazards and reduced quality of life, the report stated. Urban expansion has already altered the flood risk profile for many regions, and more than two-third of the urban population is at risk.
As per the report, climate change and urbanisation patterns are the main drivers of pluvial flooding risks, with a forecast increase in risk of 3.6 times to 7 times by 2070.
Increasing impact of urban heat
The study reveals that exposure of India’s urban population to dangerous levels of heat stress has increased by 71 per cent from 4.3 billion in 1983-1990 to 10.1 billion person-hours per year in 2010-2016 in the country’s 10 largest cities.
Urban Heat Island effect compounds the impact of increasingly frequent and severe heat waves, and in the business as usual scenario, the study projected that heat-related deaths in Indian cities will double from 1,44,000 a year to 3,28,500 by 2050. Cities such as Chennai, Lucknow and Surat could be under high heat stress conditions by 2050, the report stated and added that the extreme heat will also result in loss of billions of dollars annually.
“In Chennai, extreme heat is already putting workers in danger and costing as much as $1.9 billion each year, about 2.3 per cent of the city’s gross domestic product (GDP),” it underlined.
Increased speed and scale
The report recommended timely adaptation of effective resilience measures in urban development to avert billions of dollars in annual damage and losses caused by flooding and urban heat-related impacts. Close to $5 billion in pluvial flood-related losses can be averted by 2030 and $14 billion to $30 billion by 2070 through appropriate interventions. Greening cities with cool roofs and implementing heat wave early warning systems and other mitigation actions would also increase GDP and save up to 130,000 lives a year by 2050, it stated.
Besides, the report suggested that low-carbon pathways can be achieved and will be efficient in the long run. “The most ambitious policies and related investment would allow cities assessed to reduce their emissions by 80 per cent on average by 2050 and save up to $136 billion in expansion costs by 2050 through more efficient planning, infrastructure and service provisions,” it stated. “The national and state governments are taking numerous actions to support cities. Besides, the national government, states and cities are also taking measures to tackle flooding, water scarcity and extreme heat. However, the speed and scale of these efforts need to be significantly increased to meet the growing challenge,” the report suggested.