A few weeks ago, OpenAI launched an in-built payment portal within ChatGPT that allows instant checkout. This means users can now make purchases straight from conversations. In addition to its upcoming partnership plans with Shopify, OpenAI has partnered with Stripe and Etsy.
OpenAI is advancing its AI assistant into the business world in addition to conversation. Up until now, ChatGPT has mostly served as a search or suggestion engine, sending users to other websites to make purchases. That dynamic is altered by Instant Checkout. Users can now browse, compare, and buy right within the chat window.
The Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP), which was co-developed with Stripe and made available as open source, serves as the foundation of this system. This implies that it might be adopted by other AI platforms as well, possibly establishing a benchmark for AI-driven business. By integrating buying into chats, OpenAI is establishing ChatGPT as a gateway to commerce rather than merely an assistant.
Winners, losers, and shifting power lines
However, e-commerce being a domain where power is concentrated in the hands of few prominent players, a feature like this might cause them to rethink their strategic decisions. For instance, Amazon, the “default destination” for online shopping for a long time, may see its dominance challenged by increased competition owing to the entry of ChatGPT. Amazon used to be in charge of everything, including logistics and discovery. However, ChatGPT poses a threat to this stack because it could undermine Amazon’s advantage of being the first stop if customers just “ask the AI” for the best deal and check out right away. Google is also at risk. Although its product search rankings and shopping ads have been profitable, its advertising revenues may decline if customers begin avoiding search engines completely.
History demonstrates that disruption has a price, and that initial enthusiasm can eventually give way to saturation. Current Indian market trends demonstrate how quickly user behaviour can change in response to changes in transaction costs.
The National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) reports that in May 2025, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) in India processed 18.68 billion customer-initiated transactions, totalling approximately ₹25.14 lakh crore. According to its calculations, Google Pay alone handled 6.74 billion transactions during that time, or roughly 36% of the total volume of UPI. Given the elasticity of this market, even small changes to fees or policies can have an impact on hundreds of millions of users. Hence, Uber, Ola, along with Google Pay all had to face the realities of monetisation, competition, and regulation after entering markets with aggressive discounts and changing user behaviour.
Lessons from digital payments
Digital payments are another example of a parallel. At first, Google Pay (along withPaytm and PhonePe) expanded by offering cashbacks and other incentives to its users. Instead of adopting UPI payments out of habit, millions did so because every transaction included a lottery-style incentive. The cashback culture is now disappearing as adoption has reached saturation. While UPI-linked bank transfers are still free, Google Pay started charging a 0.5%–1% convenience fee on some credit and debit card-based bill payments in early 2025. With this action, expansion-driven incentives give way to cost recovery. Even if they are small, analysts point out that these expenses can affect users’ preferences for payments, possibly driving some of them back to traditional UPI transfers or zero-fee apps. The current honeymoon period for ChatGPT might come to an end in a similar manner.
The competitive stakes
E-commerce is currently an oligopoly, with Shopify, Walmart/Flipkart, and Amazon merchants controlling the market. The AI interface itself, which is a new layer added by ChatGPT, has the potential to act as a gatekeeper. OpenAI acquires remarkable power over which merchants prosper if users choose to ask the AI for product recommendations by default. However, sustained dominance is more difficult to achieve than early disruption, as demonstrated by Uber and GPay. Google, Amazon, and Anthropic are competitors that won’t sit around doing nothing. If one AI assistant uses predatory commission tactics or opaque ranking algorithms to tip the scales, regulators may also step in.
Short-term adoption of ChatGPT’s Instant Checkout is anticipated to be fuelled by novelty, curiosity, and early media buzz. Merchants will quickly plug in if they are eager to investigate new channels. However, history advises caution in the long run. Like digital payments and ride-hailing, the platform might eventually reach saturation.
The Uber-Ola parallel: Predatory pricing and stagnation
Uber and Ola initially lured users with generous promo codes and heavily discounted fares when they entered India’s ride-hailing market. Driver sign-ups skyrocketed as customers swiftly switched from traditional taxis to app-based rides. The platforms appeared invincible for a while. However, predatory pricing—burning money to undercut rivals—was the foundation of the business strategy. Fares increased, incentives decreased, and growth stalled as investor patience waned. Drivers faced reduced pay, and passengers lamented the “cheap cab revolution” was over. The ChatGPT portal may take similar course.
