A new analysis by Climate Trends, a Delhi-based organisation, has connected the dots between climate change, crop losses and rising food prices. The study shows how extreme heatwaves and erratic rainfall have severely impacted TOP production over the past five years, pushing up prices of these staples and driving food inflation to alarming levels. Drawing on Reserve Bank of India studies, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) analysis and official datasets, the research highlights how weather shocks are becoming a recurring driver of inflation.
A RBI study shows that rainfall changes raise vegetable inflation by about 1.24 percentage points, while temperature changes increase it by around 1.30 points. These short-duration, perishable crops are highly sensitive to sudden climate shocks, and their concentrated production in a few states makes them especially prone to volatility.
Food inflation in India, which had eased after 2014 due to improved supply, spiked in 2019-20 as unseasonal rains damaged kharif onions in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, and potato crops in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. The trend continued during the pandemic, moderated briefly in 2021-22, and climbed again due to post-pandemic demand and the Russia-Ukraine war. Erratic weather in 2023-24 further disrupted supply, driving inflation higher. Consumer food price inflation reached 11.5% in July 2023 and 10.87% in October 2024. Vegetable inflation rose to 37% in July 2023 and 42% in October 2024.
In 2023, heavy rains in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka caused tomato production declines of 10.9 and 12.9%, respectively. Prices at Azadpur Mandi jumped from ₹18 per kg in June to ₹67 in July. Onions faced a similar disruption when unseasonal rain and hailstorms in Maharashtra led to a 28.5% production drop. Prices peaked at ₹39 per kg in November. Potatoes were hit by unseasonal rain in West Bengal and frost in Uttar Pradesh in 2023-24, reducing production by 7% and keeping prices elevated throughout 2024. At Azadpur, potato wholesale prices in August 2024 averaged ₹21.6 per kg, higher than the ₹10-14 range seen in 2021-23.
The year 2024 was the hottest on record, with heatwaves and erratic rainfall intensifying pressure on agricultural output. Tomatoes averaged ₹40 per kg in Delhi’s wholesale markets in July 2024. Onion prices peaked at ₹37 per kg in September. Small and marginal farmers, who dominate the supply of these vegetables, were hit hardest, lacking access to cold storage, refrigerated transport, or adequate crop insurance. The losses were not only limited to production in the field. Transportation disruptions, rotting during transit due to moisture and heat, and post-harvest spoilage in mandis added to the shortages.
Azadpur Mandi, Asia’s largest wholesale fruit and vegetable market, reported reduced supplies and higher spoilage in 2023-24. Wholesalers said tomatoes from Himachal were damaged by rains, leading to poor quality and low arrival in Delhi. “The produce from Himachal got damaged due to the rain. The tomato season in Himachal usually starts around June 15-20, but this time the rains destroyed standing crops. The ones which reached Delhi are poor in quality and are fetching very low prices,” a trader said. On days of heavy rain, fewer retailers came to buy stocks, while unsold vegetables rotted in the market. “When it rains, moisture gets trapped inside the vegetable crates, which causes them to rot during transportation,” another wholesaler said.
The production data reflect the impact of these events. Himachal Pradesh’s tomato output fell from 5,32,340 tonnes in 2022 to 4,74,340 tonnes in 2023. Karnataka’s output fell from 2.3 million tonnes to 2 million tonnes in the same period. Maharashtra’s onion production dropped from 12 million tonnes in 2022 to 8.6 million tonnes in 2023. Potato production in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal declined from 34.6 million tonnes in 2022 to 32.1 million tonnes in 2023. The reduced output coincided with retail price spikes lasting several months until new harvests entered the market.
The correlation between extreme weather events and food price inflation is evident in official data. In November 2019, rainfall damaged onions across Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka, sending vegetable inflation to 35.9%. In July 2023, rainfall and heat damage to tomato crops pushed vegetable inflation to 37.3%. In October 2024, potato shortfalls caused by frost and unseasonal rain drove vegetable inflation to 42.1%. These price shocks translated into higher overall consumer food inflation, which touched double digits during these episodes.
India’s agricultural system is exposed to climate volatility, with over 65% of cropped land unirrigated and dependent on the southwest monsoon. Short-duration crops such as tomatoes, onions and potatoes, despite being staples, are more vulnerable to weather fluctuations than cereals. While production of tomatoes is distributed across several states, onions and potatoes remain concentrated in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, making national supply heavily reliant on conditions in a few regions.
The impacts of climate change on crop yields are not limited to vegetables. Studies cited in the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land have shown that wheat yields in India declined by 5.2% between 1981 and 2009 due to warming. Farmers are already changing sowing and harvesting times, adopting short-duration varieties, and altering cropping patterns. However, these adaptations remain limited and largely reactive. “Climate change has made India’s weather patterns erratic, leading to an exponential rise in the frequency and intensity of disasters. Spells of heatwaves are more intense and prolonged, while rainfall patterns are erratic marked by extremely heavy rainfall in shorter duration and longer dry spells,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President–Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather.
Experts point to measures that could build resilience. Protected cultivation such as greenhouses can shield perishable crops like tomatoes from extreme weather, though they are not viable for onions and potatoes. Investments in cold storage, warehousing, and refrigerated transport can reduce post-harvest losses. Weather-informed advisories and price forecasting could help farmers adjust sowing and harvesting schedules. Cluster farming and collective transport could allow smallholders to share costs and reduce spoilage. Social protection measures, including crop insurance and nutrition safety nets, are also seen as essential to buffer households from inflationary shocks. “Big farmers can absorb weather shocks, but small landholders are disproportionately affected. Cluster farming can build collective resilience,” said Dr Ashutosh Singh, Professor, College of Agribusiness Management, GB Pant University of Agriculture and Technology.
Climate-driven food price shocks highlight the intersection of environmental change and economic stability. In India, where food accounts for nearly half of the Consumer Price Index, even moderate supply disruptions have disproportionate impacts on inflation. The Climate Trends analysis shows that the persistence of shocks in 2019, 2023 and 2024 is evidence that extreme weather is no longer an anomaly but a recurring factor shaping the price of essential vegetables. Unless structural measures are adopted, volatility in tomato, onion and potato prices will continue to challenge both farmers and consumers.