Donald Trump's new scramble for Venezuela's oil is meant to benefit US companies, and possibly other Western firms. But the oil industry is treading carefully, with the terms uncertain.
The Trump administration is meeting US industry groups on Friday after claiming US companies would invest "billions of dollars" to revive Venezuela's oil and gas sector, after years of embargoes and underinvestment.
So far, only one US company, Chevron, is operating in the Latin American country with a licence granted by Washington.
Is it easy to drill for Venezuelan oil?
Between political uncertainties and the colossal funding required, restoring production is a tall order.
Production peaked at 3.5 million barrels a day (bpd) 25 years ago but currently is at one million bpd.
"Most Venezuelan oil is extra heavy, meaning it is extremely viscous and carbon rich compared to lighter oil grades, such as US West Texas Intermediate," said Clayton Seigle, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
One oil industry figure, who asked to remain anonymous, likened it to "a spread mixed with sand".
Energy analysts Wood Mackenzie said: "It requires special preprocessing (called upgrading) prior to refining into transportation fuels like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel -- and that added processing requires costly, capital-intensive infrastructure."
The analysts called Venezuela "among the largest oil production emitters in the decade".
What are the political and financial challenges?
According to a study by researchers Rystad Energy, an eye-watering $183 billion of investment would be needed in oil and gas exploration and production infrastructure by 2040 to reach three million bpd, including $53 billion just to maintain actual production levels.
But Seigle said longer-term political stability would be the clincher for oil companies.
Without it, he said, "they're unlikely to make the tremendous investments that would be needed to restore and grow Venezuela's capacity to produce oil and gas".
"Companies run the numbers and determined that major new oil production with prices near or below $60 (a barrel) would not be profitable -- an unacceptable outcome for their investors."
What do the oil companies say?
One feeling dominates at the oil companies: don't rush.
"It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investment," a spokesperson for ConocoPhillips told AFP.
Chevron stressed that it continued to operate "in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations".
The French group TotalEnergies completely withdrew from Venezuela in 2022 and doesn't seem close to a return anytime soon.
In line with its strategy, it does not want to invest in extra-heavy oil development projects, such as those in the Orinoco Belt, where Venezuela's oil reserves are primarily concentrated.
Exploiting oil there is costly and greenhouse gas-intensive.
Why do some have so much at stake?
Some companies, such as Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol, which share assets in the country, could take advantage of the new situation to recover unpaid debts from Venezuela, notably linked to gas deliveries.
Despite US sanctions on Venezuelan oil imposed since 2019, state-owned oil and gas company PDVSA was paying its debt to them in crude oil until March 2025, when the Trump administration revoked operating licences in Venezuela.
The arrangement was then abandoned.
Repsol chief executive Josu Jon Imaz claimed in March last year that he was in contact with the US authorities to find "mechanisms" to maintain its operations.
Since president Nicolas Maduro was seized last weekend, the company has not made any statement.
According to a note from Spanish bank Sabadell, quoted in Spanish media, "an orderly transition would be positive for Repsol because, in the medium term, the current embargoes on the export of Venezuelan crude oil can be expected to be lifted".
