LUCKNOW: The battle lines have been formally drawn in Uttar Pradesh for the high stakes Lok Sabha election with eight seats in the western region of the state set to vote in Phase-I on Friday. A total of 80 candidates are in the fray and 1.44 crore voters are set to decide their fate.
Of the eight seats, the BJP had lost five – Saharanpur, Bijnor, Nagina, Moradabad and Rampur – in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the SP, BSP and RLD were contesting in a grand alliance. The saffron outfit had to be satisfied with Kairana, Muzaffarnagar and Pilibhit. While Saharanpur, Bijnor and Nagina (SC) were won by the BSP, the SP had emerged victorious in Moradabad and Rampur.
This time, while the BJP has accomplished a big strategic victory by winning over the Jayant Chaudhury-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which has a strong influence on the Jat vote, the Congress and SP have joined hands in the INDIA bloc and the Mayawati-led BSP is going it alone.
As per the Congress-SP seat-sharing arrangement, the Congress will contest only one seat -- Saharanpur -- of the eight in the first phase, with the SP contesting the remaining seven.
While the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is relying on the popularity of PM Narendra Modi and CM Yogi Adityanath in UP and beyond, improved law and order, beneficiaries of welfare schemes besides the consecration of Ram Lalla in his abode in Ayodhya, the SP has been harping on caste census while pitching for the Pichhda (OBC) Dalit (SC) Alpsankhyak (Muslim) narrative.
On the other hand, the Congress is looking for a revival in the state where it has been reduced to a non-entity.
Across all eight seats set to vote on Friday, Muslims, Dalits and OBC (primarily Jats, Gurjar and Sainis) hold a sizable presence.
However, some of the most watched-out contests would be in Pilibhit where the Gandhis — Varun and mother Maneka – are not in the scene for the first time since 1989 and the saffron party has pinned its hopes on Jitin Prasada against the SP’s Bhagwat Saran Gangwar, a five-time MLA from Nawabganj assembly seat in Bareilly. The BSP, on the other hand, has fielded Anees Ahmad Khan, aka Phool Babu, a three-time MLA from Bisalpur.
The BJP is finding it tough to sail through in Muzaffarnagar, the sugar bowl of UP, where its sitting MP and union minister Sanjiv Baliyan, is seeking a straight third term. With the RLD becoming part of the BJP-led NDA, all eyes will be on the challenge thrown by the SP’s Harendra Malik, a Jat. The BSP has fielded Dara Singh Prajapati, an OBC, who could potentially consolidate both the OBC and Dalit vote.
In Kairana, the BJP’s sitting MP Pradeep Chaudhary, a Gurjar, is facing a stiff challenge from SP’s Ikra Hasan, sister of SP MLA Nahid Hasan. The BSP has fielded Sripal Singh -- a Thakur -- in what is being perceived as a move to nudge the BJP in the west UP region. In 2019, Chaudhary had defeated Ikra’s mother Tabassum Begum. Polarisation seems to be the high point in Kairana.
In Rampur, another interesting contest is in the offing. Touted to be a pocket borough of senior SP leader and 10-time lawmaker Azam Khan, Rampur was wrested by the BJP in the 2022 by-polls necessitated after Azam vacated the seat following his election to the UP assembly. BJP candidate Ghanshyam Lodhi, the sitting MP, is now pitched against the SP’s Mualana Mohibullah Nadvi and BSP’s Zeeshan Khan who is reported to be invoking Azam and his legacy while campaigning.
In Saharanpur, the contest is expected to be intense, with BJP’s Raghav Lakhan Pal Sharma, Congress’s Imran Masood and BSP’s Majid Ali in the fray. This time, the BSP has replaced Fazlur Rehman, its sitting MP, with Majid Ali.
Moradabad, the brass city, is also set for an interesting contest as the SP has replaced sitting MP ST Hasan with Ruchi Veera against the BJP’s Kunwar Sarvesh Singh. The BSP has fielded Irfan Saifi, who could potentially eat into the Muslim vote bank of the SP.
In Bijnor, the RLD’s Chandan Chauhan, a Gurjar, is pitched against the SP’s Deepak Saini. In 2019, the seat was won by the BSP’s Malook Nagar who is now in the RLD. The BSP has fielded Chaudhary Vijendra Singh, a Jat.
In Nagina reserved seat, the BJP has fielded its sitting MLA Om Kumar, who will be up against the SP’s Manoj Kumar, a former district judge. The seat was won by the BSP’s Girish Chandra in 2019. This time, the BSP has fielded Surendra Pal Singh. Moreover, Azad Samaj Party chief Chandra Shekhar Azad too is contesting from here.
