Indian sugar producers and traders expect a significant decline of about 19% in sugar production for the upcoming season, according to the second estimate.
Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh are likely to see the most significant drops in output. The All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) projects that India's sugar production will be around 25.8 million tonnes (MT) in 2024-25, down from 31.8 MT in the previous year.
The biggest decline is expected in Maharashtra, where sugar production is predicted to fall by approximately 27% compared to last year. Uttar Pradesh is also expected to see a decline of about 13%.
Even the Indian Sugar and BioEnergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has estimated lower sugar production, though slightly higher than AISTA's projection. ISMA predicts around 27.25 MT after diverting 3.75 million tonnes of sugar for ethanol production.
As of March 10, 2025, ISMA reported that sugar production had reached 23.3 million tonnes, with 228 mills currently operational across the country. In Uttar Pradesh, improved plant cane recovery and yield may extend the crushing season until April, though some mills in the eastern and central parts of the state are expected to close by the end of March.
In Maharashtra and Karnataka, reduced sugarcane yield per unit area has led to lower cane availability. Some mills in Karnataka are expected to restart operations during a special season in June or July 2025.
Maharashtra, the largest sugar-producing state, is projected to have a final production of around 8 million tonnes, down from 11 million tonnes last season. Uttar Pradesh, the second-largest producer, is estimated to produce 9 million tonnes, lower than last year’s 10.4 million tonnes. Karnataka's production is expected to be 4.1 million tonnes, slightly higher than the previous estimate but still lower than last season’s 5.3 million tonnes.
AISTA noted that the final figures could vary by ±2%. Meanwhile, sucrose diversion for ethanol production is expected to reach 3.8 million tonnes, a significant increase from the earlier estimate of 0.4 million tonnes.
Despite the current decline, ISMA remains hopeful that production will improve next year. A favorable southwest monsoon in 2024 and good water availability in reservoirs have contributed to better planting for the 2025-26 season in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
