As the counting of votes for bypolls to two Assembly seats in J&K begins, it would be interesting to see if the ruling National Conference overcomes the strong anti-incumbency factor and retains its traditional stronghold of Budgam or loses it for the first time.
The bypolls to Budgam Assembly seat (in Kashmir) and Nagrota (in Jammu) were held on November 11 with 50.01% polling recorded in Budgam and 74.82% in Nagrota.
The bypolls were necessitated after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah vacated the Budgam seat and retained the Ganderbal constituency, while the Nagrota seat fell vacant after sitting BJP MLA Devender Singh Rana died in October last year.
The Budgam seat is a high-stakes and prestige seat for the ruling NC as it was represented by CM Omar Abdullah. A total of 17 candidates were in the fray including NC’s Aga Mahmood, PDP’s Aga Muntazir and BJP’s Aga Mohsin, all belonging to influential Shia families.
The bypolls in Budgam were held amid growing anti-incumbency against the Omar government as people were dissatisfied over unfulfilled promises including job creation, installation of smart power meters, 200 units of free electricity, 12 subsidised LPG cylinders and a fair reservation policy. The discontent has fuelled anti-incumbency that could challenge NC’s long-held dominance in the constituency.
Adding to NC’s worries, influential Shia leader and Srinagar MP Aga Ruhullah refrained from campaigning for the party candidate due to dissatisfaction with the Omar-led government.
It is expected to be a close contest between NC’s Aga Mahmood and PDP’s Aga Muntazir, who are also relatives.
Budgam has historically been a fortress for NC and the party has never lost the polls from the seat. Right from the first election for the Budgam seat in 1972 to the 2024 Assembly polls, voters of the constituency have consistently backed NC, electing its candidate every time.
NC sources said the party was not in favour of giving the mandate to Aga Mahmood for the seat, but his name was cleared after insistence from party president Farooq Abdullah.
It now remains to be seen whether Aga Mahmood will help NC retain the seat. A victory will provide a major boost for Omar’s government and signal that NC’s popularity has not diminished since last year’s Assembly polls despite opposition criticism. The win will give Omar confidence to continue with his “soft approach” towards the Centre.
However, a loss would mark an unprecedented setback for NC. It will be a major jolt for the party that has never before been defeated from the seat. It will underscore strong anti-incumbency against the Omar government and reflect public disappointment with NC’s performance and its failure to fulfil its poll promises. It will force CM Omar Abdullah to reassess his government’s policies and adopt a new approach moving forward.
Just as the Budgam seat holds significance for NC, the contest in Nagrota is crucial for the opposition BJP.
The seat witnessed a triangular contest between BJP’s Devyani Rana, daughter of late MLA Devender Rana; NC’s Shamim Begum; and JKNPP president and former minister Harsh Dev Singh.
For the BJP, the bypoll serves as a popularity test in its Jammu bastion, gauging whether the party continues to command voter loyalty or if the ruling NC has made inroads following its return to power.
