NEW DELHI: The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has predicted a higher possibility of the emergence of the El Niño phenomenon after summer, which may weaken the Southwest monsoon in the Indian Sub-continent.
The most recent El Niño, which occurred in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record, causing record-deficient rainfall in India and impacting food stocks.
According to the latest update from the WMO, a recent weak La Niña event is expected to fade into El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or El Niño-neutral conditions. There is a possibility of a warming El Niño episode later this year, which, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. It is synonymous with the weakening of the Indian southwest monsoon. La Niña is the cyclic counterpart to El Nino, known for cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, causing good rainfall in India.
The WMO observation is similar to that of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMD also observed that La Niña transitioned to neutral in summer and further transitioned to El Niño in July onward.
WMO Global Producing Centres forecasts indicate a 60% chance of ENSO neutral conditions – neither El Niño nor La Niña during March–May 2026, rising to a 70% chance during April-June. During May-July, the chance of neutral conditions is 60%, whilst the chance of an El Niño increases steadily to around 40%.
However, forecast uncertainty increases at longer lead times. Predictions issued at this time of year are typically less reliable due to the so-called boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-known limitation affecting ENSO outlook skill.
Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General, said that WMO is carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making. “Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management,” said Saulo.
“They are also a key part of the climate intelligence provided by WMO to support humanitarian operations and disaster risk management, and thus save lives,” she added.
Naturally occurring large-scale climate events such as El Niño and La Niña are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures in the long-term, exacerbating extreme weather and climate events, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
