Navigating geopolitical shoals is tricky business in international diplomacy. Realism prevails. But it is not as if actions become a matter of expediency and subject to personal whims and fancies, or that morality and legality of actions become irrelevant. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s overnight visit to Israel is a case in point. The visit is untimely, unwarranted and out of sync with regional and international politics. It is taking place at a time when the fog of war is descending on the state of Israel.
The ministry of external affairs did not give a briefing on the visit. Perhaps, public accountability for foreign policy actions is no longer required. Or, perhaps, the geopolitical headwinds unnerve Delhi.
What we know about the visit came from Tel Aviv. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu personally undertook the media management, calling Modi a ‘personal friend’, which is rather strange at that level. Netanyahu is a skilled and experienced diplomat and is very focused on what he seeks to extract out of anyone. Quite obviously, at a time when the world avoids socialising with Netanyahu, Modi’s visit came like celestial manna to the beleaguered Israeli leader who is in a crucial election cycle that may take him to prison unless he retains immunity in office from prosecution. It is Howdy Modi 2.0. But why should it be obligatory on Modi’s part?
The India-Israel relationship has phenomenally transformed through the Modi years as one of Delhi’s most strategic partnerships. For Israel, the more it gets shunned internationally, the more it needs to hold India’s hands. Delhi has no qualms that Israel is an exceptionally brutal genocidal state, which is antithetical to India’s ancient values of compassion and forgiveness. Israel violates international law with impunity. But Delhi is so opportunistic that Indian diplomats at the UN dithered at the recent voting on the Israeli plan to annex West Bank territory. They played safe by abstaining but signed up the very next day on the final statement. The flip-flop exposed Indian policy as unprincipled.
Today, adherence to international law and the UN charter is a hot-button issue as Trump’s ‘armada’ gathers around the Persian Gulf. These are extraordinary times. At the recent Munich Security Conference, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio invoked the ‘white man’s burden’ of the colonial era to deliver an encomium to five centuries of the West’s “missionaries, its pilgrims, its soldiers, its explorers, pouring out from its shores to cross oceans, settle new continents, build vast empires extending out across the globe”. European elites who came to listen gave Rubio a standing ovation. Such is the bizarre world we live in. Israel itself is blithely invoking Genesis to stake claim to all the lands between the Nile and the Euphrates.
There is a high probability that the US and Israel will attack Iran to advance a regime change agenda. This could happen close to Modi addressing the Knesset. Netanyahu thoughtfully proposed the flattering idea with a purpose. Again, according to Netanyahu, India would sign up to a so-called ‘Hexagon of Alliance’—a proposed network of allied countries in or around West Asia that collectively stand against what he termed “radical” adversaries.
The Times of Israel quoted Netanyahu as saying, “In the vision I see before me, we will create an entire system, essentially a hexagon of alliances around or within West Asia.” The visionary Israeli PM thereupon singled out India, Greece and Cyprus as the core participants of a civilisational alliance that shares similar strategic concerns.
Netanyahu let the cat out of the bag by also elaborating that this bloc would stand in opposition to what he described as “radical axes” in the region, including the “radical Shia axis” as well as what he visualises as an “emerging radical Sunni axis”. One doesn’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that Netanyahu hopes to team up with India against Turkey and Saudi Arabia. He must have heard somewhere that the Modi government is upset with Ankara’s stance on Kashmir and with Riyadh over its defence pact with Pakistan.
What Netanyahu is looking for is an anti-Islamic alliance. He feels encouraged that during Modi’s last visit to Israel, he identified Hindutva with Zionism. Netanyahu hopes that Modi will now take a giant leap of faith to pit India against Islam. In sheer naïveté, Netanyahu anticipates that Modi would find the idea irresistible. From his perspective, it might more than substitute for the moribund Abraham Accords, which was expected to foster Israel’s integration into its Muslim neighbourhood and mitigate to some extent its regional isolation. But what gains would the wonder that was India get out of such a confrontational alliance?
Netanyahu realises that the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, which sought to strengthen economic development by enhancing trade links and infrastructure connectivity between India, the Gulf region and Europe, won’t fly. Saudi Arabia has turned its back on Israel and has begun exploring an alternative route via Syria, bypassing Israel’s Haifa. Simply put, the Haifa port, which was once touted by Delhi as India’s counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, has turned out to be a white elephant. Its uncertain future is tied to the success of Trump’s Riviera project in Gaza. (India, interestingly, attended Trump’s Board of Peace event as an ‘observer’.) Netanyahu’s ingenuity lies in enticing Delhi to turn its back on Iran’s Chabahar, which potentially connects with the International North-South Transportation Corridor leading to Europe.
The government is skating on thin ice by teaming up with Israel's regional rivalries. There is a growing perception that India is ‘tilting’ towards the UAE in its brewing rivalry with Saudi Arabia. Delhi traditionally followed a careful policy of neutrality vis-a-vis the rivalries endemic to the Gulf. Make no mistake that Saudi Arabia remains the custodian of the two holy mosques and leads the Islamic world, and is a pivotal player in the global energy market. The UAE is a dynamic trading hub and potential investor.
We need friendship with both countries. Strategic autonomy, multi-alignment and balanced partnerships serve India’s interests, which are poles apart from Israel’s. The Modi era too will pass into history, but India will continue to live in its region.
M K Bhadrakumar | Former diplomat
(Views are personal)