With the announcement of candidates for most of the Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka, the big picture of the mega electoral battle is getting clearer. But, the much-talked-about BJP-Janata Dal (Secular) alliance is yet to firmly set foot on the ground, although it appears solid.
If the displeasure expressed by JD(S) leaders during a core committee meeting earlier this week is anything to go by, grassroots-level leaders are yet to be taken into confidence by the BJP. It’s a warning bell for the BJP to act fast to bring in a proper synergy between the two parties at all levels and avoid creating confusion, anxiety, and bad blood within JD(S) against the alliance.
In the meeting attended by former prime minister HD Deve Gowda and former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy, many JD(S) leaders expressed discontentment over the BJP not involving them in campaigning or election-related work and not inviting them to the PM’s rallies in Kalaburagi and Shivamogga. The regional party leaders felt that in 18 Lok Sabha seats, they could help the BJP by transferring three to four percent of votes. But, if the BJP fails to utilise its services and takes a hit, it would be responsible for it.
Kumaraswamy, who spoke to the media after that meeting, did convey the displeasure expressed by the party leaders. But, it looked as though he was holding back more than what he was expressing. On their part, Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy seem to be trying their best to send out the right message to their cadres and to the BJP leaders to ensure NDA candidates’ victory in all the LS segments. They have asked the JD(S) leaders to coordinate and cooperate with the BJP. The JD(S) is proactively campaigning in the Bengaluru Rural seat where noted cardiologist and Deve Gowda’s son-in-law Dr CN Manjunath is contesting on the BJP ticket.
However, the enthusiasm seen in the initial days of forging the alliance is not visible anywhere except in Bangalore Rural. The BJP needs to show that it is accommodating and flexible where needed, as the broader contours of the agreement have been agreed upon. Ironically, they are yet to hold joint conventions or meetings to discuss joint strategies at the local level. If the alliance has to serve its intended objective, the bonhomie between the top leaders of both parties needs to trickle down to booth level.
From the BJP’s point of view, there is hardly any scope for complacency, especially when there is no one-sided contest in any seats in the state. Striking the alliance was just one part of the job done. They need to hold joint conventions in all constituencies so that workers from both parties operate as a cohesive unit.
Failure to ensure both parties work together at ground level could even backfire. In 2019, when Congress and JD(S) faced the polls together, they could not ensure synergy between the two. Not just that, in many places, internal contradictions in the alliance helped the BJP. However, there are many differences between the Congress-JD(S) alliance in 2019 and the BJP-JD(S) now.
In the Lok Sabha elections, which will be mostly centred around the performance of the Union government, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, and guarantee schemes, the alliance partners’ success depends on their ability to supplement each other. For example, BJP’s support will be crucial for JD(S) in Gowda’s home district Hassan, and the regional party’s support can greatly help BJP in the Bangalore North LS seat. Apart from many other seats, the BJP needs JD(S) in Mysuru, Tumakuru, and Chikkaballapur to woo dominant Vokkaliga community votes. Even in seats like Bidar in Kalyana Karnataka, JD(S) could play a vital role for BJP.
In Karnataka, the Congress is a formidable force capable of exploiting the fault lines in the alliance as well as rumblings within the BJP after the announcement of the tickets. Congress would be hoping to consolidate minority and Kuruba community votes and if it manages to get the Vokkaliga community’s backing it can be a force to reckon with in the Old Mysuru region. That’s where the JD(S), a smaller partner in the alliance, could play a big role. In North Karnataka and coastal Karnataka, it would be a direct fight, with the BJP having a slight advantage in many seats.
Congress, which failed to convince its ministers to contest the LS polls, has given the tickets to several kith and kin of ministers and top leaders. That is nothing new in Congress, but this time, it has reached new heights. The ministers will no doubt make all-out efforts to ensure that their children win elections. Youngsters, even if they are from political families, may bring a fresh perspective to politics, but only time will tell how the party cadres and voters perceive such a strategy.
In this election, Congress leaders would find it morally difficult to attack the JD(S) as a family party!!!
Ramu Patil
Senior Associate Editor
ramu@newindianexpress.com
