With both factions of the Shiv Sena set to mark the party’s 60th anniversary on Friday, the group led by Uddhav Thackeray is facing what experts describe as an existential crisis, while the faction headed by Eknath Shinde is struggling to retain relevance in an era dominated by the BJP.
The undivided Shiv Sena, once a steadfast ally of the BJP for 25 years, was effectively the “elder brother” in the Maharashtra coalition, but the balance of power shifted after 2014, when Narendra Modi became Prime Minister.
The alliance between the two parties broke just ahead of the 2014 Assembly elections. They reunited within four months, but relations were never warm thereafter, remaining tense and prone to periodic rupture.
A similar break came in 2019 when the Shiv Sena walked out of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance over the chief minister’s post. The split later set in motion events that led to the party dividing into two factions.
It is not that the Shiv Sena was unfamiliar with internal revolts.
From stalwarts such as Chhagan Bhujbal, Ganesh Naik, Narayan Rane to Raj Thackeray, the party had faced several rebellions, but none matched the one led by Shinde in 2022 that split the organisation.
Shinde, who rose through the ranks of the Shiv Sena, later left with 39 MLAs and 13 MPs. His group subsequently secured the party’s name and its bow-and-arrow symbol.
The Shiv Sena was formed in 1966 by firebrand orator Bal Keshav Thackeray, popularly known as Balasaheb, a cartoonist and son of social reformer Keshav (Prabhodhankar) Thackeray, who championed the cause of the “Marathi manoos”, or Marathi-speaking population of Maharashtra.
Bal Thackeray made the Shiv Sena a force to reckon with in Maharashtra, particularly in Mumbai, with Shiv Sainiks earning a reputation as street-level activists strongly aligned with the party’s causes.
In these 60 years, the undivided Shiv Sena had three chief ministers — Manohar Joshi, Narayan Rane and Uddhav Thackeray. However, none completed a full five-year term. After the 2022 split, Shinde headed the government for two-and-a-half years.
Political analyst Hemant Desai said both factions, especially Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray, confront a tougher challenge than Bal Thackeray faced in his lifetime.
“Bal Thackeray did not live in the time of a hegemonic BJP, but both Sena factions are currently living in that era... However, the Uddhav Thackeray-led group is staring at a much bigger crisis,” he said.
With only 20 MLAs, Shiv Sena (UBT) may be the largest opposition party in the Assembly, but the Shinde-led faction has nearly three times as many legislators in the House.
The undivided Shiv Sena controlled the cash-rich Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) for an uninterrupted 25 years, from 1997 to 2022. The party’s hold over the civic body ended in 2022 when the tenure of corporators concluded. In the subsequent civic elections in 2026, the BJP installed its mayor in the corporation. The Shiv Sena (UBT) currently has only one mayor in the state — at Parbhani Municipal Corporation.
Desai also said there is a silver lining for the Uddhav-led faction. It can start afresh, though this would require significant effort, particularly from Uddhav Thackeray’s son and heir apparent Aaditya Thackeray.
Shinde has been in power since 2014 — first in the Devendra Fadnavis government, then in the Uddhav Thackeray-led government, later as chief minister from 2022 to 2024, and as deputy chief minister since 2024.
“For the Shinde-led Shiv Sena, the challenge will begin once there is tightening of the noose over finances,” Desai said.
Political analyst Sanjay Kumar, a professor at the Delhi-based Centre for Development Studies and Societies, said the relevance of the two Sena factions needs to be viewed in the context of regional parties, especially in states where power transfer can take place within the first family.
Meanwhile, data indicates that the relevance of both factions has reduced in terms of vote share.
Referring to the split in the undivided Shiv Sena, Kumar said his group “is staring at another split” and did not appear to take cues from the Trinamool Congress, whose Lok Sabha MPs formed a separate group and later merged with the Nationalist Congress Party of India.
“Uddhav faction is more prone to getting into deeper trouble as it is not in power,” Kumar said.
He further said that while the Shiv Sena (UBT) is set to lose six MPs, the scale of losses in Assembly elections directly affects the number of MPs a party sends to the Rajya Sabha.
This also impacts the party’s share in national politics, he said.
Kumar said the Shiv Sena (UBT) not only faces leadership issues but also an ideological crisis, with the BJP having “snatched” its Hindutva plank.
“The Shinde-led Shiv Sena is likely to remain relevant for some time as the BJP still does not command a complete majority in state politics,” he said.
“Slowly and gradually, the Shinde-led Sena is moving towards losing relevance just like the JD(U) in Bihar,” Kumar added.
