2024 will go down as an epoch-making year in Odisha politics. The fortress was stormed, the aura of invincibility shattered...to the extent that it put the very existence at stake.
Not one of the above was expected, almost unfathomable. But the people’s power showed its supreme might, and the earth shook. The BJD was defeated and the 24-year-long reign of Naveen Patnaik as chief minister of Odisha came to an end. Not only did the defeat pave the way for formation of the first BJP government in Odisha, the BJD was also found floundering for relevance at the national-level, without a single MP in the Lok Sabha for the first time since it was formed.
Till mid-2024, or more precisely June 4, no one could anticipate such a big shift in the politics of the state. Naveen was still reckoned unbeatable with his unwaning popularity among the masses and the continuous flow of welfare programmes covering each and every section, coupled with the organizational strength and election machinery of BJD across the state.
The grand and ambitious Srimandir Parikrama project at the Jagannath temple in Puri had been unveiled and was thought as a powerful counter to the BJP’s Hindutva polarisation efforts following the Shri Ram Janmbhoomi Mandir inauguration in Ayodhya. Various new schemes for women, youth, students and farmers were rolled out and expected to spearhead the Naveen magic.
There was acknowledgement of the anti-incumbency factor making a dent, but it was not supposed to breach the citadel. Naveen and his party appeared well on the path of securing a record sixth consecutive term in Odisha. The fight for the Lok Sabha was agreed to be tighter.
But, that was not to be. The election results displayed a BJP wave in the state and a tsunami in the Lok Sabha seats. The BJD was reduced to just 51 in the Assembly from a whopping 112 in 2019 and most humiliatingly drew a blank in the parliamentary seats. The ultimate shocker was Naveen losing to a BJP first-timer Laxman Bag in the Kantabanji Assembly constituency while barely scraping through in his traditional Hinjili seat.
Post-poll analysis pinned the loss upon Naveen’s trusted aide and bureaucrat-turned-politician VK Pandian. The Tamil Nadu-born IAS officer was the long-serving private secretary to Naveen before quitting service in 2023 and joining the BJD. Over the past decade, Pandian had gradually taken absolute control of both the government and the party. From 2014 to 2019, he had remained behind the curtains, but after the unprecedented victory of 2019, he emerged from the background to openly display his power, authority, and ambition.
With Naveen ceding the space to Pandian, he became the all-in-all and the former a mere prop in governance as well as political affairs. Pandian was virtually projected as his successor, making district tours on his behalf and also leading the party campaign during elections. Naveen’s election meetings which had Pandian standing beside him holding the microphone can be said to be the watershed moment that brought on the electoral twist. The perception of the chief minister no longer in control and the fear of being ruled by an ‘outsider’ was well-capitalised by the BJP which made ‘Odia Asmita’ its central poll issue.
The rest is history now. However, for all the reasons given and alibis presented, Naveen himself is responsible for the predicament. Pandian has since the defeat taken ‘political sanyas’ forcing the former CM to again take centrestage. The sand, though, is slipping. Discontent and desertion has become a normal in the BJD. The Rajya Sabha flock is taking wings, so is the situation from the state-level down to the grassroots.
2025 has too much at stake for Naveen. Very recently, at the BJD foundation day celebrations, he announced, “I am here for a long time”. How he navigates through the year to steer the BJD ship will determine his and his party’s future.