TN Assembly polls: Rajinikanth’s entry may force political stakeholders to redraw strategies

Political commentator and editor of Thuglak magazine S Gurumurthy is of the view that Rajinikanth’s political entry would have a significant impact on State politics.  
Rajinikanth fans celebrating his political entry announcement in Tiruchy on Thursday (Photo | EPS/M K Ashok Kumar)
Rajinikanth fans celebrating his political entry announcement in Tiruchy on Thursday (Photo | EPS/M K Ashok Kumar)

CHENNAI: With barely five months more for the 2021 Assembly elections, actor Rajinikanth has reconfirmed his political entry. And his entry will, in all likelihood, force the major political stakeholders in Tamil Nadu to redraw their strategies for winning the forthcoming Assembly elections. 

While the ruling AIADMK has welcomed Rajinikanth, the principal opposition party DMK declined to comment saying: “Let him actually launch the party and make known his policies first. Then we will comment.”

However, political commentator and editor of Thuglak magazine S Gurumurthy is of the view that Rajinikanth’s political entry would have a significant impact on State politics.  “Majority of votes in Tamil Nadu are non-DMK and non-AIADMK votes. Rajinikanth will target that. In reality, Rajinikanth is the only person who can defeat both. A survey, done before Rajinikanth announced his political entry, estimated that he has got around 14% votes. So, if he can garner the anti-DMK and anti-AIADMK votes, he will emerge as a major factor,” Gurumurthy told The New Indian Express.

In this connection, Gurumurthy recalled how the by-election to Dindigul parliamentary constituency in 1973 where the anti-DMK and anti-Congress votes played a key role and changed the political scenario in the State. In that four-cornered election, a few months-old AIADMK got 50% plus votes and the vote share of the DMK and the Congress came down.  

“It was because the anti-DMK votes which the Congress was getting had gone to MGR’s party. The anti-Congress votes, which the DMK was getting, went to MGR’s party. So, the DMK barely escaped by securing just around 18% votes to retain the deposit amount. That turned the Tamil Nadu politics in which two things became very clear: Both anti-Congress and anti-DMK votes along with MGR’s own votes went to MGR’s party. Till now, anti-DMK votes have not returned to anyone and it is with the AIADMK.”

When asked about the position of the BJP after the political entry of Rajinikanth, Gurumurthy said, “If Rajinikanth emerges as a factor -- I mean if Rajinikanth and BJP get together, BJP will be the loser because philosophically, Rajinikanth’s line is BJP line. On all national issues, Rajinikanth took BJP's stand.”

On the possibility of Rajinikanth joining hands with the BJP, Gurumurthy said, “It depends upon what the groundshift that takes place. Whether he is going to declare this or not, the DMK will be his political enemy. So, naturally, there will be a rallying around him from other political parties. That will be a chemical change in Tamil Nadu politics.”

Political analyst Tharasu Shyam is of the view that there would be a sea-change in Tamil Nadu political scenario due to Rajinikanth’s political entry.  “Now, all major political parties in the State will have to redraw their political strategies for the 2021 Assembly elections now. On the political highway, Rajinikanth has opened a new shop. So, existing shopkeepers have to retain their customers. So, eventually, they have to make new offers. In the electoral arithmetics, Rajinikanth’s entry has given a new-found joy to the alliance parties. In a nutshell, the Dravidian majors will be doing their best to retain their present allies particularly the smaller allies to avoid scattering of votes.” 

Asked what kind of impact Rajinikanth’s party would have in the political arena in the State, Shyam said, “On his own, Rajinikanth may garner around 5 to 10% votes. In alliance with breakaway groups from other parties, he may increase his vote share. That’s all.” 

Shyam also said given the practical realities, Rajinikanth’s party cannot go it alone in the Assembly elections. But going by whatever said by Rajinikanth so far, he may not align with any party. So, in due course, disgruntled office bearers in different parties will move towards Rajinikanth’s party.

On Rajinikanth's Aanmiga Arasiyal (spiritual politics), Shyam said, “It is not new to Tamil Nadu. From 1949, temple tower has been the symbol of Tamil Nadu government’s emblem. In fact, Tamil Nadu is the only State to have a religious symbol as its emblem. Pasumpon Muthuramalinga Thevar has stood for the slogan (nationalism and spiritualism are like two eyes of our Nation).” 

AIADMK coordinator and Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam said, “We welcome actor Rajinikanth's entry into politics." Asked whether the AIADMK would align with Rajinikanth's party, Panneerselvam said, "In the coming days, anything can happen in politics. If there are chances, we may align with his party."   

Questioning whether Rajinikanth's political entry would make an impact on the AIADMK, Fisheries Minister D Jayakumar said, 'The AIADMK vote bank comprising that of MG Ramachandran and J Jayalalithaa, will not waver at any situation. 

DMK spokesperson TKS Elangovan said that “Only when he launches the political and makes known his policies and ideologies, we can comment on them. There must be a political agenda for every political party and Rajinikanth is yet to clarify these things.”

DMK spokesperson V Kannadasan said, “The DMK has faced MG Ramachandran forming his own political party. Let many more parties come. The DMK will face them.  It has become quite routine that just ahead of Assembly elections, there come political parties with hidden agendas.  And before the next election, the new party would vanish. This is the history of many parties in Tamil Nadu.”

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