"Pannianji, are you contesting?" was one of the first questions posed by a debutant Shashi Tharoor to the then sitting MP Pannian Raveendran, before his first ever electoral outing from the Kerala capital of Thiruvananthapuram in 2009. With the latter not keen, the former contested, won hands down, and is now seeking a record fourth term.
Thiruvananthapuram, one of the few constituencies in the state to witness a genuine three-cornered contest, has three heavyweights fighting it out. The prestigious seat was once represented by stalwarts in national politics like Annie Mascarene, ex-defence minister VK Krishna Menon and Congress patriarch K Karunakaran. Congress heavyweight Shashi Tharoor, UN diplomat-turned politician, shares the record of three consecutive terms with another Congressman A Charles, who won from here in 1984, 1989 and 1991.
In the constituency, however, the poll fever and fervour are yet to make their ripples felt on the ground. Though the candidates have initiated campaign moves, the political heat is yet to reach its crescendo, as the final picture was etched out just last week.
Keenly-watched triangular contest
The ruling Left has chosen a veteran Communist, the CPI's ex-state secretary and one-time MP Pannian Raveendran, to win back not just the seat but also its lost honour, as the party was pushed to a pitiable third slot the last two times, finishing far behind the BJP.
With the saffron party nurturing an earnest desire to open its account in Kerala, it has deputed Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar. A Malayali brought up outside the state, the Rajya Sabha MP from Karnataka was till now a not-so-familiar face among the capital's voters.
As expected, the Congress has chosen to rely on its sitting MP Shashi Tharoor, as they have done elsewhere in the state, except for Thrissur and Vadakara. Though his candidature was the last to be announced among the three, his was the most certain among the Congress electoral probables.
Enthusiasm vs Professionalism
Pannian can claim the early bird advantage, as he kickstarted his campaign well before the other two. Rajeev is slowly catching up with a meticulously organised and structured campaign. Tharoor has begun with a slow yet planned campaign, albeit a bit delayed.
While the last two are evidently professional in their approach - with in-house tech teams managing each move to the T, leaving no margins for error, with meticulous planning and follow-up steps - Pannian seems to be drawing enthusiastic crowds with his characteristic bonhomie.
Undoubtedly, his zealous passion is unmistakable in its sincerity. The veteran leader always seems to have a horde of fans hovering around him all the time. Simplicity being his hallmark, the veteran enjoys the aura of a bard, attracting the masses, cutting across age, gender and political affiliations.
As far as Rajeev is concerned, what began as an unfamiliar candidate saga has evolved into a well-chalked out campaign. Taking a cue from the rival Congress camp, a well-oiled machinery has been meticulously replicating Tharoor's campaign style in a bid to carve out his own niche among the voters. What was expected to be a cakewalk for Tharoor in his fourth outing seems to be slowly turning into a neck-to-neck fight.
What voting patterns say
Going by the voting patterns in the last few elections, Tharoor can claim to have a sizable vote share that stood with him, even during his most perilous electoral fight in 2014, which was marred by a slew of controversies and allegations surrounding the death of his wife Sunanda Pushkar.
In his first electoral fight in 2009, Tharoor emerged victorious securing 44.2% votes in a four-cornered battle with CPI's P Ramachandran Nair in the runner-up slot and BSP's A Neelalohithadasan Nadar coming third, pushing BJP's PK Krishna Das to fourth position. However, things were entirely different in 2014, when Tharoor, facing a formidable fight from BJP veteran O Rajagopal who finished a close second with 32.3% votes, clocked just around 34.1% votes.
This could well be termed as the biggest fight that Tharoor faced due to the slew of controversies around him. The payment seat row, wherein the CPI had put up a candidate after allegedly taking money, turned out in Tharoor's favour. The disgrunted Left allies, mostly worried that the BJP might open its account, voted en masse for the Congress, pushing the CPI to the third slot, for the first time in the state's electoral history.
With this, the BJP ensured a close second position in the constituency which continued in 2019 too. However, this time around, Tharoor bettered his own margin with 41.2%, while runner-up Kummanam Rajasekharan could muster only 31.3%. Noticeably, the CPI remained in the third slot, finishing far behind the BJP with just 25.6% votes.
Having said that, the fact remains that in 2005, Pannian recorded the biggest vote share from the constituency in four decades - 51.41%. Thanks to the support from K Karunakaran's DIC(K). The CPI won twice from here, prior to Tharoor. In 2004 when the Lok Sabha polls in the state witnessed an unprecedented Left wave with the LDF winning 18 of the 20 seats and NDA getting its maiden and lone seat ever through PC Thomas, CPI's PK Vasudevan Nair won with 37.6% votes against sitting MP VS Sivakumar of the Congress who polled 30.4%.
One year later, in the byelection necessitated by PKV's death, Pannian registered a thumping victory. In his first contest, Pannian won a record 51.41% of the vote while runner-up VS Sivakumar got 41.63%. The BJP was nowhere in the picture, finishing with just 4.83%.
Campaign on developmental plank
Going by the general pattern, development has been the prime campaign topic of debate in the constituency. While the Left Democratic Front (LDF) wants to highlight lack of development in the constituency during the last 15 years, the United Democratic Front (UDF) lists out the initiatives undertaken by Tharoor. On the other hand, the NDA is keen to juxtapose the country's overall development against that of Thiruvananthapuram.
While the CPI is synonymous with Pannian's campaign, in the case of Tharoor and Rajeev, more than their parties per se, it's their individual poll machinery that's at work.
Lack of development in the constituency remains the prime argument by both the Left and the BJP. 'Pazhaayippoya 15 varshangal' (The lost 15 years) is one of the key highlights in Pannian's campaigns while Rajeev reminds voters that time has been running out with his slogan 'Namukk Ini Pazhaakkan Samayamilla' (We now don't have time to waste). A content Tharoor, however, goes by the motto 'Thudaratte Nammude Swantham Tharoor' (Let our own Tharoor continue.)
Caste interplay, community equations, vote swings and undercurrents
Hardly a week after campaigning began, the poll picture in the constituency has undergone a drastic change. If Thiruvananthapuram was one of the sure bets for the Congress among the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, it's no longer the case. If first impressions were that the LDF and BJP hardly posed a threat to Tharoor, it took no time for the Congress and the LDF to realise that Rajeev Chandrasekhar is no small fry.
"Contrary to the initial impression that the Congress would retain its seat and that the LDF would push back BJP to the third slot, the perspective has changed. A professional Rajeev Chandrasekhar is surging close behind Tharoor, with Pannian far behind. The seemingly walkover win scenario has changed. The urbanised voter community is sure to see a vote swing," pointed out a CPM source.
While the BJP is keen to harp on politics as a means to reinforce 'Modi's guarantee', the Left camp's politicking is to attack Tharoor over his controversial Hamas remark and statement on the Ayodhya Ram temple issue. Winning the Muslim minority votes would be crucial for both the Congress and the Left. Contrary to the BJP and the LDF, the Congress has been talking about development as well as socio-communal and political issues.
The Vizhinjam Seaport project and the ensuing fishermen agitation is also bound to play a key role in the election. A section of the coastal population harbours resentment towards both the Left government and Shashi Tharoor. The BJP camp has naturally slid in to fish in these troubled waters. Both the LDF and BJP are also doing their best to reap electoral gains from a mild anti-incumbency wave against Tharoor.
A well-organised campaign to woo residents associations in the city too is gradually gaining momentum in the state capital. Tharoor has always enjoyed major support from the urban, IT and youth groups, in addition to sufficient support from the coastal population, especially the Latin Catholic votes. However, both the BJP and the LDF hope to poach the same.
Tharoor has been an appealing face for both the urban and coastal population. But this time around, Rajeev is likely eat into the urban, IT votes, while Pannian is sure to make substantial gains from the coastal votes. Pannian will also gain a sizeable vote share from the city and rural areas too. The present incumbent's win would be decided, depending on whether the gains made by the other two would be over and above Tharoor's eroding vote base or not.
The next-door politician image, a clean track record and the people's leader is what makes Pannian stand out among the trio. This is exactly what the CPI has been trying to cash in on. The genuinely simple leader enjoys clear backing of the common man.
Juxtaposed to him, stands Rajeev, eager to woo the IT and urban crowd, with his elaborate social media campaign that seeks to highlight the constituency's lag, despite PM Narendra Modi's developmental agenda for the country. Such professional moves are definitely attracting crowds. However the party support for him is yet to reach an optimum level.
"Of course Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur are two seats with the most winning possibility for the party. Rajeev is suitable for the IT and youth crowd. But he's not mingling much with the party workers. A highly sophisticated MNC model team has been taking the campaign forward. But the ground level enthusiasm is missing. On the other hand, in the case of Suresh Gopi, there's enthusiasm at the ground level, but management tactics are lacking," pointed out a BJP leader.
Meanwhile none of the predictions and assessments seem to deter the Tharoor camp. Riding on the popularity wave, the Congress politician plans to cash in on the developmental and welfare activities that he has implemented here in the last decade and a half. A full list of activities in the constituency will be out in a day.
"It's true that the fight is slowly narrowing down to Congress vs BJP. The BJP candidate will have to say why he has not made any intervention in the state so far. They are silent on politics, as it could hurt minorities. Otherwise how will they justify the highly irresponsible statement by the BJP candidate after the Kalamassery blast? On the other hand, the Left wants to get minority votes and that's why they highlight Hamas and Ayodhya. We have enough weapons in our arsenal to counter such campaigns. We speak about development, socio-communal and political issues that will resonate with the voters," avers a source in the Tharoor camp, exuding confidence.
Even as temperatures soar, the constituency is set for a big fight, the result of which could drastically alter Kerala's existing political climate.
