For the BJP, caste-based outfits in Tamil Nadu don't make for strange bedfellows. In fact, no outfit is a nonentity for them. Building their presence everywhere and winning seats is all that matters for India's biggest election machine at the moment. Tamil Nadu is no different.
So, there was little reason to be surprised when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) signed an agreement that will see the latter contest 10 seats in Tamil Nadu in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. The agreement was signed by PMK founder S Ramadoss and BJP state president K Annamalai in the presence of union minister of state for fisheries L Murugan at the Thailapuram (Villupuram district) residence of Ramadoss.
BJP has already stitched up an alliance with GK Vasan’s Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), while it has gained the support of TTV Dinakaran’s (expelled from AIADMK) Amma Makkal Munneetra Kazagam and former Chief Minister O Panneerselvam. Actor-turned-politician R Sarath Kumar has also disbanded his All India Samathuva Makkal Katchi (AISMK) and merged with the BJP. The smaller outfits like the TMC and AISMK were once with the DMK.
As for the PMK, the expectations were that it would tie up with the AIADMK-led by Edappadi K Palaniswamy. A few second-rung party leaders had told media that they wished for such an alliance. But, finally, it was the wish of the younger Ramadoss' (former Union minister for Health and Family Welfare) that prevailed.
Now, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) is left. It can swing either way. It can land in the BJP alliance or with the AIADMK. It’s only a matter of time.
N Sathiya Morthy, political commentator, points out that BJP is quite conscious about their limitations in Tamil Nadu despite the leadership putting up a bold face. The BJP's actual game plan, quite apparently, was to replace the DMK in power with the help of the AIADMK. But AIADMK severed ties with the BJP-led NDA in September last year. One of the reasons the AIADMK leadership cited for walking out of the alliance was the BJP state leadership defaming Dravidian leaders including CN Annadurai and J Jayalalithaa and their policies.
New ally, PMK, which represents the Vanniyar community, has a strong presence in the northern districts of the state. Sathiya Moorthy recalled that in the 2014 polls, the BJP in alliance with the AIADMK, PMK and DMDK managed to garner 18.5 percent votes. A repeat of that is unlikely, despite the BJP leadership’s claims. The strategy then appears to be to push the AIADMK to the third position, he said.
More importantly, Sathiya Moorthy said, the AIADMK, and even the PMK, will witness massive cross-voting for the rival DMK combine if it had stayed in the company of the BJP, since the party is identified in the state with its Hindutva agenda.
Proessor and political analyst A Ramasamy said that BJP has been focused with their strategy in Tamil Nadu. They want to win a couple of seats or improve their vote share. But currently, their vote share is less than two percent while PMK has a vote share of around six percent. Be that as it may, BJP’s main agenda is to see that the AIADMK is finished off. But AIADMK cannot be written off just like that. Edappadi Palaniswamy still has a strong support base in the Kongu belt.
But then lately, politics is controlled by corporate interests. The old kind of analyses hardly works these days, Professor Ramasamy pointed out.
A series of road shows by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has boosted the morale of the cadres in Tamil Nadu. Will they translate into votes is the million-dollar question now?
