Former Maharashtra Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan, in his freewheeling interview with Sudhir Suryawanshi, says Modi has been hostile towards Maharashtra since his second term as Prime Minister. Excerpts:
What key issues covered in Congress and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) campaigns are appealing to the voters on the ground?
Tackling inflation, unemployment, and corruption, addressing the farmers' crisis, and saving the Constitution are under the spotlight this state election. These same issues resonated in the recent Lok Sabha election, and the result was overwhelming for us. MVA secured 65% of the total seats, that is, 31 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats, while the BJP-led Mahayuti ended with only 17 seats. We expect similar results in the state polls as well.
What is the reason behind this resounding victory of the MVA in Lok Sabha?
The people were angered by the BJP's policies. The BJP has been in power for over 10 years, at both central and state levels, except for the 2.5-year MVA rule. People oppose Modi's anti-farmer policies besides rising inflation and unemployment in the state. People voted against the BJP, holding the state and central governments responsible for the farmers' crisis. The issues persist on the ground even though there is a six-month gap between the state elections and Lok Sabha elections. The reason is, unlike farmers from Punjab and Haryana, Maharashtra farmers are very docile and law-abiding. Punjab and Haryana farmers staged protests against the farm laws and attracted media coverage. In Maharashtra, however, many farmers committed suicide due to debt and falling farm produce prices.
In the last Lok Sabha election, onion prices were the key issue. This time, cotton and soybean prices are important issues and much talked about on the ground as well.
What is your take on this?
My simple question is, should farmers forget Modi's decision to ban the export of onions and manipulate domestic onion prices? It may not be an issue in the election narrative this time, but they will not forget what Modi has done to them in the past and does regularly whenever onion prices go up. Soybean farmers are angry because they are not getting even the government-promised prices for their crops, while on the other hand, the input cost has gone up drastically. They are failing to recover the input cost. Farmers in Vidarbha, West, and North Maharashtra are upset with falling prices of cotton and soybean, while Nashik farmers are upset with onion prices. The hurt is still there; we cannot ignore that.
The opposition, in their election campaign, pointed out that industries and job opportunities are being taken away from Maharashtra to Gujarat. In addition to that, a recent report revealed that Maharashtra’s per capita income and GDP growth have taken a hit. What is your view?
In terms of per capita income, Maharashtra has always been ahead of other states. It was earlier considered the number one state in industrial growth. Today, Maharashtra ranks eleventh in the country. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and even Goa are all ahead of Maharashtra in terms of per capita income. Why has Maharashtra deteriorated so much? Who is responsible for it?
This is a result of the BJP-ruled central government and the pro-BJP state government's step-motherly attitude towards the state. BJP's top leadership hijacked major projects like Vedanta-Foxconn and Tata Airbus meant for Maharashtra and shifted them to Gujarat. The biggest betrayal was the shifting of the international financial center from Mumbai to Gandhinagar in Gujarat. There are no international flights to Gandhinagar, so a bullet train line connecting Mumbai to Ahmedabad was unnecessarily developed by the Modi government. No one from Maharashtra wants to go to Ahmedabad by bullet train.
In his second term as PM, Modi had been very hostile towards Maharashtra; without consulting anyone, he has been pushing and shifting high-value projects to Gujarat.
Do you think that the seat-sharing arrangement among MVA alliance partners might cost MVA this election?
It is true that, in an alliance, each partner wants to secure more seats. Shiv Sena (UBT) focused on getting more seats in state polls to have a dominant position in state politics because six major parties are contesting this election. Sharad Pawar aimed for seats that his party can win and maintain the highest strike rate, as in the Lok Sabha elections, while Congress was not particularly focused on anything specific. We have a great chance to win more seats in the Vidarbha region (Nagpur and Amravati divisions).
Will Manoj Jarange Patil's decision to withdraw his candidates affect the elections?
I do not know, but on the ground, Dalits are angry with the government, and the same goes for the Marathas due to the Maratha reservations issue.
BJP started its campaign with the 'Batenge to Katenge' slogan but later PM Narendra Modi amended it with a new slogan, ‘Ek hai to safe hai’. What is your take?
Let us not forget that the BJP is a fundamentally fascist party backed by the RSS. They always need a sensational topic to polarize voters. Pakistan was earlier BJP's preferred bait. But today, the financial condition of Pakistan is so dismal, and its economy has collapsed, that it is no longer seen as a threat to us. The BJP has now generated a new bait out of simmering hatred against Muslims in the state and in India, to replace Pakistan.
BJP is now targeting them by hurling slogans like 'Hindu khatre mein hai'. How can a Hindu be in danger when the Hindu population is six times larger than the Muslim population? Why are RSS-BJP creating an inferiority complex among Hindus with such divisive slogans? RSS-BJP are emulating Hitler's narrative against Jews to remain in power.
BJP alliance partner Ajit Pawar and many other BJP leaders are also against this 'Batenge to Katenge' slogan -- why?
The reason is that Ajit Pawar and some BJP leaders cannot ignore the importance of Muslim votes in their respective constituencies. In order to appeal to the Muslims, they are overtly against this divisive slogan. Ajit Pawar is not even using photographs of Modi-Shah in his party campaign; a photograph of Yogi Adityanath is out of the question. There are major differences among Mahayuti alliance partners. It is a completely unnatural alliance; therefore, I am personally perplexed about why they do it.
There are 7,000 candidates in state polls, and many of them are rebels and independents. What mandate do the people of Maharashtra give: fractured or clear mandate?
I am confident that the people of Maharashtra will give a clear mandate in favor of MVA. There will be 15 to 20 independents, unlike 1995, when there were 42 independents. Some of them will be predisposed to one side or the other. They will join an alliance and help the party form the government. There is also a risk of both alliances having numbers too close, because, then, the BJP may activate Operation Lotus once again.
The Congress party was confident it would return to power in Haryana, and even surveys suggested high chances of victory for the party. But chances were botched at the last minute. What way will Maharashtra go? Will Maharashtra face the same fate as Haryana, or will something different happen?
If you compare the Lok Sabha election result in Haryana and Maharashtra, the Haryana result was 50:50; Congress and BJP each got five Lok Sabha seats. In Maharashtra, MVA got 65% against 35% secured by the BJP-led Mahayuti. The gap in our state is fairly large. Besides, Maharashtra is about four to five times the size of Haryana. Regions vary, not only geographically but also historically, culturally, socially, and climatically, while Haryana is a homogenous state. There is a stark difference between Vidarbha and the Konkan region that we should not forget.
Incumbent Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has not been announced as the CM candidate representing Mahayuti; BJP leader Amit Shah is projecting Devendra Fadnavis as the CM candidate while Ajit Pawar is waiting for his chance. What is your view?
Ajit Pawar is not in the CM race at all. In Mahayuti, there are only two people being considered for the position. While many hinted that Maratha leader Eknath Shinde may continue as CM if Mahayuti comes back to power, Amit Shah suggested Devendra Fadnavis could be considered for CM in a campaign last week. I think this is just a ploy to unsettle many people and induce bargaining.
I do not think that Modi and Shah seriously consider Fadnavis as the Chief Ministerial candidate anymore. I think he has been washed out. Why is he still relevant? The reason he has been kept close is that he clearly has an advantage over his competitors in BJP, right from Gopinath Munde, Pankaja Munde, Eknath Khadse to Vinod Tawade, Chandrakant Patil, and others.
Now BJP realizes that if they remove Fadnavis, there is no familiar face from the party left in the state capable of running the election campaign. Fadnavis will be tolerated by the top leadership of BJP till the election. Once the election is over, he will be shown the door and accommodated somewhere else. BJP will strictly go with Eknath Shinde if they come back to power.
Which seats are likely to be secured by Congress and Maha Vikas Aghadi in the state polls?
Congress and MVA will have a clear edge in the Nagpur, Amravati, and Marathwada regions, while in Nashik, Pune, and the Konkan divisions, there will be a fierce fight among all six parties of Mahayuti and MVA. Most of the seats in these latter three regions will be shared almost equally by MVA and Mahayuti.
The deficit of numbers for Mahayuti in the three divisions of Nagpur, Amravati, and Marathwada will be high; it will be difficult for them to recover these regional losses in other divisions where the fight is fierce. The performance of Congress in the two divisions of Vidarbha will be extremely strong compared to any other party. That is exactly why it emerged as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha elections with 13 seats. We secured double-digit numbers because of Vidarbha, and the same will happen in the state polls where MVA will win 60-65% of the seats, with Vidarbha having a major share. Congress will emerge as the single largest party.
Sharad Pawar said that the largest party in MVA will claim the CM post if it comes back to power. Could you explain?
I said the same thing three months ago when controversy over projecting the Chief Minister post arose. I said this is common practice in coalition politics since 1999. In an alliance, if no one is projected as the Chief Minister, the usual practice is to give the opportunity to nominate the CM candidate to the party that wins the largest number of seats. However, the leaders of all three parties chose an alternative approach where all leaders consult each other before nominating a candidate, deviating from this traditional formula and practice.
As you said, Congress will emerge as the single largest party. If MVA comes back to power, who will be nominated as the chief minister candidate in the Congress party?
It’s too early to speak about the CM candidate. Let us first win the election and emerge as the single largest party. Then the Congress high command will decide whom to nominate as the Chief Minister of Maharashtra. The usual practice is to hold a meeting with MLAs and understand their opinions in the presence of some observers. If the verdict is divided, the Congress leadership of that particular state assists in choosing the Chief Minister.
