India and Canada are currently embroiled in a significant diplomatic crisis following allegations made by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He claimed that Indian government agents were involved in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Khalistani terrorist, in British Columbia in 2023. India has vehemently rejected these allegations, labelling them as "absurd" and "politically motivated." In response, both nations expelled key diplomatic personnel, further exacerbating tensions.
The diplomatic relationship between India and Canada was established in 1947, founded on shared democratic values, pluralism, and cultural ties. It gained momentum during Prime Minister Nehru's visit in 1949 and through Canada's assistance in nuclear technology, notably with the CIRUS reactor in 1954. However, the relationship faced challenges early on, notably in 1948 when Canada supported a plebiscite in Kashmir. Subsequent tensions arose, including India's nuclear test in 1974, perceived by Canada as a breach of its commitment to peaceful nuclear energy, and concerns over Khalistani militancy in the 1980s.
Other significant points of contention included India’s nuclear tests in 1998 and the 1985 Air India Flight 182 tragedy, which resulted in 329 fatalities. The situation further deteriorated following Trudeau's comments on the farmers' protests in India in December 2020.
Recent events have illustrated ongoing challenges, such as the vandalism of the BAPS Swaminarayan Mandir in Edmonton by Khalistani separatists on July 22, 2024. This act occurred shortly after a minute of silence was observed in the Canadian House of Commons for Nijjar, reflecting a non-partisan acknowledgment of Khalistani sentiments among Canadian political parties.
Historically, Canadian political discourse has shown a persistent acceptance, if not sympathy, towards the Khalistan movement since the early 1980s. This consensus has evolved, influenced by Cold War dynamics and contemporary domestic issues, shaping the complex landscape of Canada-India relations.
Ties during Cold War
During the Cold War, Canada engaged with India through various initiatives, including project financing, food aid, and technical assistance, aligning with other Western nations. A notable collaboration was the establishment of the CIRUS nuclear reactor at the Trombay Atomic Energy Establishment in 1954. However, relations deteriorated after India's peaceful nuclear explosion in 1974, which utilised fissile materials from this reactor.
In the 1970s and 1980s, Canadian foreign policy under Prime Ministers Pierre Trudeau and Brian Mulroney closely aligned with US interests, particularly influenced by Cold War dynamics in the Indian subcontinent. This alignment became evident after the India-Soviet Friendship Treaty of 1971 and the subsequent Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
During the rise of Khalistani militancy in the 1980s, the Canadian government largely ignored growing separatist activities. In 1982, Canada denied the extradition of Khalistani terrorist Talwinder Singh Parmar, citing Commonwealth protocol, which stated that India only recognised Her Majesty as Head of the Commonwealth, not as Head of State. This stance was compounded by the failure to prosecute those responsible for the 1985 Air India Flight 182 bombing.
Subsequent administrations under Jean Chretien, Paul Martin, and Stephen Harper saw some improvement in Indo-Canadian relations, spurred by India's strengthening ties with the West. Despite this, Canada maintained its traditional position on the Khalistan issue, supporting a united India while asserting that advocating for a Khalistani homeland did not inherently constitute illegal activity, thereby upholding its commitment to freedom of expression as a democratic right.
Canada's consensus due to vote bank politics?
Currently, India has markedly changed its position relative to Canada in various dimensions. India's economy now ranks as the fifth largest in the world, compared to Canada's ninth place. In 2022, India exported goods worth US$5.37 billion to Canada, while Canada exported US$4.32 billion in return. Additionally, India is the largest source of international students in Canada, with approximately 600,000 Indian students enrolled in Canadian institutions. The presence of nearly 1.4 million Canadians of Indian descent further complicates this relationship, contributing to a vibrant diaspora.
Despite these positive statistics, the ongoing diplomatic crisis highlights an imbalance that Canada appears reluctant to recognise. The framework shaping India-Canada relations has undergone significant transformation; India's increasing power and influence now challenge the previously dominant narratives of 'developed versus developing' or the simplistic east-west dichotomy.
For many years, successive Canadian governments, irrespective of the political parties in power, have exhibited a tendency to disregard Indian security concerns while adopting a permissive stance towards Khalistan-related activities. This approach has been influenced by three key factors: the dynamics of the Cold War, the political emphasis on freedom of expression, and the implications of vote bank politics.
Since Justin Trudeau's government took office in 2015, considerations of electoral vote banks have prompted Canadian political parties to adopt a policy of appeasement towards Sikh communities. Under Trudeau's leadership, pro-Khalistan sentiments have been strategically leveraged for electoral gain. Following the 2015 general election, the Liberal Party achieved a majority with 184 Members of Parliament, including 18 Sikhs, four of whom were appointed to the cabinet.
The growing representation of Sikhs in Parliament during Trudeau's first term led to the introduction of specific populist measures aimed at engaging this community. Notably, in 2017, the Ontario Provincial Legislative Assembly passed a resolution designating the anti-Sikh riots of 1984 as an act of genocide.
In a contrasting move, a report by Canada’s Ministry of Public Safety titled ‘2018 Public Report on the Terrorist Threat to Canada’ identified Sikh extremism as a security concern. However, after facing significant backlash from the Sikh community, the Trudeau administration revised the report, omitting references to Sikh extremism.
Conversely, opposition leader Erin O'Toole and Conservative party members introduced a motion in February 2018, expressing condemnation of all forms of terrorism, including Khalistani extremism, while reaffirming support for a united India. This motion aimed to acknowledge the contributions of Canadian Sikhs and those of Indian origin. However, various Sikh organisations, such as the Canadian Sikh Association and the World Sikh Organisation of Canada, denounced the motion, arguing it unjustly portrayed the entire Sikh community as linked to terrorism. Following this backlash, the Conservative Party ultimately decided to withdraw the motion from the House of Commons.
In recent years, the political importance of the Sikh community in Canada has grown significantly, driven by an increasing Sikh population and the emergence of a minority government. Census data provides valuable insights into the historical patterns of Sikh immigration to Canada. Prior to 1980, there were 33,535 permanent Sikh residents in the country. From 1980 to 1990, this number rose to 40,440. However, the most substantial increase occurred between 1991 and 2000, when 88,210 Sikhs became permanent residents. Subsequently, from 2001 to 2010, over 111,000 Sikhs obtained permanent resident status, and from 2011 to 2021, more than 141,000 did the same. According to the latest census data from 2021, the number of Sikhs in Canada has grown to approximately 771,000, representing about 2.1% of the country's total population.
When Prime Minister Trudeau alleged a “potential link between agents of the Government of India and the killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar” on September 18, 2023, the Conservative Party initially questioned the Prime Minister's judgment and called for evidence to support his claims. However, their stance shifted as Conservative MPs later condemned the killing and adopted a more sympathetic view towards Khalistani extremists.
In the broader context of Canadian political discourse, both the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party have typically pursued policies of appeasement towards the Sikh community, particularly toward factions advocating for an independent Khalistani state. Current political dynamics suggest that the Conservative Party, like its counterparts, is keen to secure support from the Sikh electorate.
A recent Ipsos poll conducted for Global News revealed that 44% of Canadians believe Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, would be the best choice for Prime Minister, while Trudeau lagged behind with only 25% support. Notably, Trudeau's backing decreased by 6% since September 2023, whereas support for Poilievre rose by 4% during the same timeframe. Given this positive polling and the prospect of forming the next government, the Conservatives are wary of alienating the Sikh community through anti-Khalistan rhetoric.
Implications
The deteriorating relations between India and Canada have significant implications for both nations. Economically, a decline in diplomatic ties could hinder trade and investment opportunities, adversely affecting businesses and industries that rely on robust bilateral co-operation.
Politically, the tensions may prompt a re-evaluation of policies related to immigration and the treatment of diaspora communities. From 2013 to 2022, the number of Indians granted permanent residency in Canada increased by 260%, reflecting a strengthening bond between the two countries.
The substantial Indian diaspora in Canada, which includes a significant Sikh population, may experience repercussions from these strained relations, potentially impacting their social and political standing. Many Indian immigrants have arrived in Canada as professionals, skilled labourers, and entrepreneurs, with increasing interest in Canada's Startup Visa (SUV) program. Additionally, India has been the top source country for international students in Canada since 2018, and Canada is India's fourth-largest source of tourists, accounting for 5.3% (80,437) of all Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) in India in 2021.
Moreover, the ongoing diplomatic crisis may influence regional security dynamics, particularly concerning counterterrorism and anti-extremism efforts. Both nations could face challenges in collaborating effectively on security issues, potentially exacerbating existing threats.
Culturally, the tensions may lead to increased polarisation within Canadian society, especially among communities with ties to India. This could manifest in heightened social tensions and challenges in community relations.
Overall, the deterioration of India-Canada relations poses risks that extend beyond diplomatic concerns, affecting economic, political, and social spheres in both nations.
Conclusion
This analysis highlights a growing consensus among Canadian political parties regarding the Khalistan movement, which has evolved over time. Initially, during the early advocacy for Khalistan, Cold War dynamics influenced Canada's approach, resulting in a permissive stance on anti-India activities while overlooking India's security concerns. As the Sikh diaspora has grown in both size and political significance, vote bank politics have increasingly shaped Canadian responses to the Khalistan issue.
Currently, the Liberal Party, Conservative Party, and New Democratic Party have all demonstrated varying degrees of sympathy toward pro-Khalistan sentiments, further empowering anti-India factions within Canada. This bipartisan support is likely to persist, given the increasing population and influence of the Sikh community in Canadian politics.
(The author is Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Central University of Kerala, Capital Centre)
