From winning his first Assembly election from Koothuparamba in 1970 by a margin of a little over 700 votes to becoming Kerala's second-longest serving Chief Minister after EK Nayanar, Pinarayi Vijayan's has been an eventful political journey.
But if the soon-to-be 80-year-old had nursed any dreams of winning an unprecedented third consecutive term as Chief Minister, they have been shaken by the jolt the ruling Left Democratic Front suffered in the local body polls.
The awakening is all the more rude because any suggestion of a thumping UDF victory in these polls would have elicited derision from both within and outside the front just a few months ago.
The Congress-led front was in utter chaos, characterised by deep infighting, leaders playing musical chairs for a truant Chief Ministership, and a glaring lack of a coherent action plan.
I am, in fact, reminded of the chuckle in a senior Left leader's voice as he told me how "if you go to most Christian houses in central Travancore, you'd come across a portrait of Christ, often accompanied by a biblical verse—'Not by my merit, but by His Grace'.
"It aptly encapsulates my stance whenever someone asks me whether we'll bag a third term. Yes, we'll get a third consecutive term—not due to our government’s merit, but because the Opposition is weak!" he had gone on to underline.
Back to the present
In the three-tier panchayat elections, the CPM-led Left front lost four sitting city corporations, four district panchayats, more than 200 grama panchayats, half of the municipalities, and an equal number of block panchayats.
The UDF last registered such a sweeping victory in local body polls back in 2010. This result has undoubtedly come as a major and timely confidence booster for the Opposition.
The biggest takeaway, however, is the BJP's breakthrough in the state capital, as the saffron front won its first-ever city corporation in Kerala. With VV Rajesh taking over as Mayor, it now remains to be seen what further ripples this win will go on to create.
Crucial role played by the Sabarimala gold theft case
Can the UDF victory be attributed merely to anti-incumbency?
Did the Sabarimala gold theft case play a decisive role?
How does one explain why the Rahul Mamkoottathil fiasco hardly had an impact?
And finally, what about the rising minority resentment against the ruling front's inconsistent political posturing? Did that contribute to the backlash faced by the LDF?
With the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government completing a decade in office, anti-incumbency was more or less a given. But the defeat could not have been this severe without several additional factors.
The Left's rout in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections—held when the Sabarimala women-entry controversy following the Supreme Court verdict was still fresh in public memory—remains instructive. The LDF's churlish and arbitrary attempts to implement the verdict antagonised believers across the state. A similar scenario unfolded this time as well.
Both the UDF and the NDA quickly seized upon the Sabarimala gold theft case as a central campaign plank. The Opposition successfully created a public perception that the Left was being deliberately evasive.
The CPM's reluctance to act against leaders implicated in the case—particularly its failure to take action against senior leader and former MLA A Padmakumar even after his arrest by the Special Investigation Team—only reinforced this impression.
The Sabarimala factor thus acted as a catalyst, intensifying an already virulent anti-incumbency sentiment.
Photo that may have cost the LDF dearly
Communal appeasement also played a role in sending the Left hurtling to defeat.
The LDF's attempt to counter the Opposition by aligning with select community leaders backfired spectacularly. Their expectations of consolidating votes by engaging with SNDP Yogam general secretary Vellappally Natesan and NSS general secretary G Sukumaran Nair failed to yield dividends.
In fact, one image that may have cost the LDF dearly was that of Vellappally alighting from the Chief Minister's official vehicle upon arrival for the global Ayyappa meet. It irked many Left voters.
Final blow
The final nail in the coffin was the visible consolidation of minority votes against the Left.
Over time, the CPM has alienated minority sections that traditionally aligned with the UDF. The party's aggressive posturing—especially Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s attacks on the UDF over its informal understanding with the Jamaat-e-Islami-backed Welfare Party—failed to resonate.
Instead, this further alienated minority voters, accelerating the erosion of the Left's support base. Meanwhile, the majority community, traditionally sympathetic to the Left, fragmented its vote across the LDF, UDF, and BJP.
What led to the UDF surge?
Despite the open factionalism and controversies such as the Rahul Mamkoottathil episode within the Congress, the party staged one of its strongest comebacks.
A key move the UDF made was in announcing its candidate lists early, even amid internal discord. They also initiated election preparations on time, and conveyed a clear impression that they were taking the polls seriously.
Credit is due to leader of Opposition VD Satheesan's camp for the meticulous planning and execution of the campaign. Well before polling day, Satheesan told The New Indian Express that the UDF would win Kannur, Thrissur, and Kochi corporations and make significant gains in Kollam as well—a prediction that later proved prophetic.
What failed for the Left?
The Left primarily banked on its welfare schemes.
A steep hike in social security pensions and the rollout of new schemes for women and youth—announced just weeks before the election notification—were expected to translate into votes. That expectation, however, did not materialise. The disappointment within the Left was palpable on counting day.
CPM leader MM Mani voiced this bluntly in his trademark style: "People took the money and then duped us."
While leaders like CPI state secretary Binoy Viswam distanced themselves from the remark, the message was clear—the electorate had not fallen for the bait.
As in all local body elections, local issues also played a decisive role.
Failures in tackling the stray dog menace, waste management, and the deepening crisis in the public health sector significantly influenced voter sentiment.
Compounding this was the increasingly arrogant approach of certain Left cadres towards the public. Their rigid opposition to protests—particularly the ASHA workers' agitation—stood in stark contrast to the Left's professed ideological commitments.
BJP's historic win in the state capital
As mentioned, the Kerala local body polls of 2025 will, however, be remembered in the years to come for the BJP's historic breakthrough in Thiruvananthapuram.
The party's first major victory in Kerala came in 2016, when veteran leader O Rajagopal won the Nemom Assembly seat, challenging the state's entrenched bipolar politics. Though the LDF reclaimed the seat in 2021, the BJP made further gains by winning its first Lok Sabha seat in 2024, when actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi secured Thrissur.
The BJP has now achieved another milestone by winning its first city corporation—Thiruvananthapuram. Election strategies rolled out by technocrat-turned-politician Rajeev Chandrasekhar, who was recently appointed BJP state president, bore fruit. The NDA improved its tally from 34 wards in 2021 to 50 of the 101-member council.
Rajeev's strategy of fielding prominent professionals paid dividends. Now, it remains to be seen how VV Rajesh builds on this.
That said, the BJP failed to replicate this success elsewhere.
Apart from Thiruvananthapuram, its overall performance remained largely stagnant. It lost the Pandalam municipality but gained Tripunithura, won only one district panchayat division, secured 54 block divisions, and 26 grama panchayats.
Notably, the BJP made inroads into the Christian community, with a portion of the LDF's lost votes getting transferred not just to the UDF but also to the BJP.
The numbers and a prognosis for 2026
Can this verdict then be safely interpreted as a harbinger of a UDF comeback in the 2026 Assembly elections?
According to the State Election Commission's figures, the UDF secured 41.12% of the vote, the LDF 36.23%, and the NDA 15.02%. Independents and others accounted for the rest.
Party-wise, the Congress secured 29.17%, the CPM 27.16%, and the BJP 14.76%.
Interestingly, compared to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, both the UDF (45.21%) and NDA (19.24%) saw vote share declines, while the LDF (33.6%) increased their share.
Going by this, all is not lost for the ruling front. The LDF's comeback in 2021 after its 2019 Lok Sabha debacle must also be kept in mind.
Systematic groundwork, recalibrated strategies, and introspection proved decisive in that instance. Whether the Left can replicate that feat remains an open question—especially as the CPM has yet to openly acknowledge the depth of anti-incumbency.
Tharoor: The X factor?
Interestingly, the BJP's victory in Thiruvananthapuram has also led to speculation intensifying around Shashi Tharoor.
The Congress MP's public congratulation of the BJP's historic performance has once again triggered rumours of shifting loyalties. While some believe Congress should project Tharoor as its Chief Ministerial face to avoid losing him, others argue he has little to gain by joining the BJP.
For now, Tharoor continues to keep his cards close to his chest. But given the current political flux, any decision he takes could prove decisive in shaping Kerala's electoral future.
And yes, like Bob Dylan sang, the times they are a-changin' in Kerala too. The Chief Ministerial question ahead of assembly polls is can Pinarayi and the Left rewind the clock back once again?