Syria: US fears vacuum post-Assad with growing concerns over return of ISIS
The US administration is grappling with the consequences of Bashar al-Assad's rapid and unexpected downfall. President Biden has suggested that US strategies, particularly in weakening Russia and Iran’s regional influence, played a role in Assad’s collapse.
Despite Washington not anticipating such an outcome, Biden now sees it as a “historic opportunity” but one fraught with "risk and uncertainty." The primary concern is the potential power vacuum, which might lead to the rise of Islamist insurgents, further destabilising Syria and the wider region. The US is working to determine who will control Syria moving forward.
As celebratory gunfire rings out in Damascus following Assad’s fall, most Syrians will not share the US’s concerns. While the US may briefly acknowledge the end of Assad’s brutal regime, its greater focus will be on the uncertain future and what will replace the vacuum left by his downfall.
The Pentagon has confirmed that American forces will remain stationed in eastern Syria, where they are officially tasked with countering the Islamic State. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, Daniel Shapiro, stated that the US will continue its presence in the region and take necessary steps to prevent the resurgence of the group, reported Reuters.
"We recognise that the evolving and volatile situation on the ground in Syria could provide ISIS with the opportunity to regroup, plan external attacks, and enhance their operations. We remain committed to working with our partners to continue undermining their capabilities," said Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, Daniel Shapiro.
He warned that the unstable and shifting situation in Syria could provide ISIS with the opportunity to regroup, carry out operations, and plan attacks. Additionally, Shapiro emphasized efforts to secure detention of ISIS fighters, repatriate displaced people, and ensure the lasting defeat of the terror group. He made these remarks at the Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain's capital.
Spillover "is a concern," said National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, with particular worry about the so-called Islamic State.
On Sunday, US Central Command forces conducted dozens of precision airstrikes targeting known ISIS camps and operatives in central Syria.
In previous phases of Syria's long-running civil war, "at its worst, we saw the explosion of ISIS onto the scene," he said at a conference in Simi Valley, California run by the Reagan National Defense Forum.
The main priority is to ensure "that the fighting in Syria not lead to a resurgence of ISIS," Sullivan said. "We are going to take steps ourselves, directly and working with the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurds, to ensure that does not happen," reported AFP.
President elect- Trump, who visited Paris on Saturday, warned against US involvement in Syria, saying the country is "a mess" and "not our friend."
"THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT," Trump said on his Truth Social platform.
Sullivan, addressing Trump's remarks, agreed, saying "the United States is not going to... militarily dive into the middle of a Syrian civil war."
In his remarks, Trump blamed former President Obama for the situation in Syria and suggested that Russia should now distance itself from the country, using its "weakened state" to advocate for a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine.
He noted that this was a pivotal moment for Vladimir Putin to act. During his presidency, Trump initially announced a troop withdrawal from Syria in 2019, a decision later reconsidered amid concerns about leaving a power vacuum for Russia and ISIS. The BBC suggests Trump might seek to return to his previous stance.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the US will closely monitor developments in Syria and continue to collaborate with regional partners. He emphasized the US commitment to supporting international efforts to hold the Assad regime accountable for atrocities, including the use of chemical weapons and the unjust detention of civilians, such as journalist Austin Tice.
US troops continue to train and equip what Washington views as moderate Arab and Kurdish forces in areas east of the Euphrates River and at the al-Tanf base near the borders of Iraq and Jordan. While it is unclear how Damascus will respond to the US presence in Syria, it appears likely that Washington will seek to negotiate a stabilization of the country, primarily relying on its preferred factions.
Earlier in Syria's civil war, former US President Obama authorised limited support for what the US considered moderate rebel groups. However, as extremists gained power on the battlefield and Russia intervened on Assad’s side, this support was withdrawn. Since then, Washington has backed a UN-led effort for a negotiated resolution between Assad and opposition forces. It is likely that the US will now shift its focus to pushing for a mediated solution involving both the rebel factions and the remnants of Assad's regime.
Western governments, which have long distanced themselves from Assad’s regime, now face the challenge of navigating a new administration where Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is expected to exert significant influence. HTS, a group designated as a global terrorist organisation, complicates the West’s approach as it must decide how to engage with a potential future leadership that includes HTS, despite its controversial status on the international stage. Abu Mohammed al-Golani, cut ties with al-Qaeda , marking a shift in HTS's ideology.
Mouaz Moustafa, from the Washington-based Syrian Emergency Task Force, which coordinates with US military and partner forces in Syria, called the situation in Syria an "indescribable good" that should not be attributed to any one faction. According to a BBC report, he explained that the operations room includes multiple factions with diverse political views, united in their goal to liberate Syria from groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS, as well as from Iran and Russia, and to allow the Syrian people to reclaim their country.