Darkness descended upon the AAP headquarters in the capital after the party, pushing for a fourth consecutive term in the Delhi Assembly, faced a major setback to its political ambitions at the hands of BJP, putting its ‘Delhi dream’ to bed (forever or not, only time will tell).
Dashing the hopes of the AAP leadership, the party’s dream of national expansion faced a major jolt in the Saturday verdict. This setback may also have grave repercussions beyond the borders of the capital as AAP seeks to retain Punjab in 2027.
As political commentators came down heavily upon the AAP, minutely dissecting the party’s defeat and every cause that may have led its greatest poll debacle since inception, an old party comrade possibly emerged as its harshest critic.
Expelled AAP co-founder and lawyer Prashant Bhushan held his estranged brother-in-arms and AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal responsible for the poll debacle.
In a post on X, Bhushan accused Kejriwal of changing the very constitution upon which the AAP was founded; the crusade for transparent and democratic governance and stauch advocacy of political alternatives had long receded, to be superceded by selfish motives of individuals.
Bhushan posted, “A party formed for alternative politics which was supposed to be transparent, accountable and democratic was quickly transformed by Arvind into a supremo-dominated, non-transparent and corrupt party which didn’t pursue a Lokpal and removed its own. This is the beginning of the end of AAP.”
Warning from an estranged past
In his post, Bhushan shared a 10-year-old open letter addressed to Arvind Kejriwal. Bhushan penned the letter to the AAP chief in 2015 after the party’s disciplinary committee expelled him and activist Yogendra Yadav, accusing them of ‘anti-party activities’.
In the letter, Bhushan compared their removal to a Stalinist purge of dissenters.
“After winning the Delhi elections with such a thumping majority, when you have such good fortune, you should be showing your best qualities to the people of this country. But unfortunately, your worst qualities have emerged now,” Bhushan held.
Noting the irony in AAP’s demeanour after it had retained power in thecapital in 2015, Bhushan wrote “The removal of the Lokpal, us and others who questioned the manner of our removal, reminds one of Stalin’s purge of dissenters in the Communist party of Russia. You should read Geaorge Orwell’s ‘Animal Farm’ to see the parallels between Stalin’s Russia and what is happening in our party today. God and history will not forgive what you are doing to the party”.
Bhushan’s letter prophecised that simply delivering ‘good governance’ will not help AAP achieve its goal of clean politics.
“You feel you can rectify everything by running the Delhi government well in the five years that you have. You think if you deliver on governance, people will forget what you have done to the party. I wish you well in that endeavour,” the letter reads.
Bhushan reminded the AAP supremo of the fate endured by the traditional political parties. “But the dream that we embarked upon of clean and principled politics and corruption-free governance was much bigger. The fear that I have, is that after how you have behaved and the character traits that you have shown, this dream of clean and principled politics that the Aam Aadmi Party was founded upon may well turn into a nightmare. But still, I wish you well,” he wrote.
The middle class’ exodus
Delhi’s middle class has long played the role of a kingmaker in the capital’s volatile political landscape, swinging between parties depending on governance performance and electoral promises.
In previous assembly elections, this influential demographic stood firmly behind the AAP, drawn by its focus on civic services, anti-corruption rhetoric, and welfare measures. But in 2025, the very same voters turned their backs on Arvind Kejriwal’s party, leading to AAP’s biggest electoral setback since its inception.
According to a survey by CVoter, the income groups in the bracket of Rs 20,000-50,000, Rs 50,000-1,00,000, and more than Rs 1,00,000 favoured BJP.
For over a decade, Delhi’s political pulse followed a predictable pattern—AAP dominated state elections, while the BJP maintained its grip in Lok Sabha contests.
The middle class, particularly in South and West Delhi, proved instrumental in these shifts, rallying behind Narendra Modi’s leadership at the national level while favoring Kejriwal’s governance model locally. However, this time, their dissatisfaction with AAP’s performance outweighed any lingering loyalty, shifting the balance decisively in BJP’s favour.
At the heart of this shift lay a growing sense of disillusionment. AAP’s rise to power was fueled by its promise of a clean, transparent government that prioritized efficiency and service delivery. Free electricity, subsidized water, and improved public services once formed the backbone of its appeal. But over the years, the sheen wore off.
Civic infrastructure crumbled, governance paralysis set in due to repeated clashes with the lieutenant governor, and corruption allegations dented AAP’s credibility. The very middle-class voters who had propelled the party to power in 2015 and 2020 now felt shortchanged, questioning whether the government had truly delivered on its promises.
Compounding this frustration was a growing perception that AAP’s welfare schemes disproportionately favored lower-income groups while leaving the salaried middle class out in the cold.
While slum dwellers, migrant workers, and daily wage laborers – AAP’s most loyal voter base – continued to benefit from targeted subsidies and cash transfers, many in the middle-income bracket felt neglected. Their concerns – rising cost of living, failing civic amenities, and worsening public infrastructure – were either unaddressed or drowned out by AAP’s welfare-first narrative. The growing disconnect reached a tipping point in 2025.
Adding to the BJP’s advantage was its strategic economic positioning. Just weeks before the elections, the Centre announced major tax breaks and salary hikes under the 8th Pay Commission, directly appealing to Delhi’s large pool of government employees and salaried professionals. This fiscal relief, combined with Modi’s promise of governance stability and economic growth, gave middle-class voters a clear incentive to switch sides.
BJP’s campaign capitalizsd on these shifting sentiments, crafting a narrative that highlighted AAP’s alleged administrative failures and corruption scandals. The party also expanded its outreach to key voter blocs – Uttarakhandis, Poorvanchalis, and urban villagers – further consolidating its middle-class support.
By contrast, AAP struggled to shake off the perception that it had lost its governance edge, with repeated controversies and internal turmoil overshadowing its message.
In the end, the election results told a clear story. While AAP retained significant backing from Delhi’s poorer sections – particularly among Dalit and slum-dwelling voters – it suffered a major dent in middle-class support, proving costly in key constituencies.
A survey by the Dalit organization NACDOR in January indicated that despite a slight decline, Dalits continued to back AAP 44-33. However, this was not enough to offset the exodus of middle-class voters who had once formed the party’s backbone.
For AAP, the 2025 election loss serves as a harsh reality check. The party’s reliance on welfare politics, without adequately addressing the governance concerns of Delhi’s middle class, proved to be a fatal miscalculation. The very demographic that once championed Kejriwal’s brand of politics now saw a more stable alternative in the BJP. As the dust settles, AAP faces the daunting challenge of rebuilding trust and re-engaging with a voter base that has moved on.
Congress’ sweet revenge
While the BJP emerged victorious and the AAP suffered a stunning collapse, an unlikely player quietly influenced the outcome – the Congress. Despite failing to win a single seat, the grand old party played a decisive role in the ruling party’s downfall by splitting opposition votes, indirectly aiding the BJP’s march to victory.
The most glaring example of this dynamic was in the high-profile New Delhi constituency, where AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal lost to BJP’s Parvesh Verma by 4,089 votes.
The Congress candidate, Sandeep Dikshit, secured 4,568 votes – more than the margin by which the BJP won. This pattern was repeated across multiple key constituencies, including Jangpura, Greater Kailash, and Chhatarpur, where the Congress secured enough votes to have potentially swung the outcome in AAP’s favor had opposition votes remained consolidated.
In at least 12 constituencies, the BJP’s victory margin was smaller than the number of votes secured by Congress candidates. While the Congress remained a non-contender in the larger battle, its ability to siphon off votes from AAP proved to be a game-changer. The impact of this vote-split was amplified by the fact that Congress improved its performance compared to 2020, securing nearly six lakh votes and increasing its vote share by approximately 2%. Coincidentally, the difference in vote share between the BJP and AAP was also around 2%, suggesting the Congress’s marginal revival came directly at AAP’s expense.
After being pushed into political irrelevance following AAP’s meteoric rise in 2015, the Congress appeared to have regained some traction, particularly among voters disillusioned with Kejriwal’s governance but unwilling to embrace the BJP. While this resurgence was far from enough to win seats, it successfully disrupted AAP’s vote base, turning what could have been a close contest into a decisive defeat for the ruling party.
Poll results clearly show that had the Congress allied with AAP, as was speculated in the run-up to the elections, the results might have been different. Instead, its independent run ended up benefiting the BJP, inadvertently contributing to AAP’s steep decline from 62 seats in 2020 to just 22 in 2025.
For AAP, the lesson from this election is clear – it can no longer afford to ignore the Congress factor in Delhi. Even in its weakened state, the Congress demonstrated that it still commands a fraction of the electorate, one large enough to tip the scales in a tight race. While the Congress may have ended the election with zero seats, its impact on the outcome was far from insignificant. By eating into AAP’s vote share, it unwittingly became the silent architect of the Kejriwal-led party’s worst-ever electoral performance.
After securing a historic victory in the now-concluded Delhi Assembly elections, the BJP has now set its sights on the upcoming Municipal Corporation of Delhi mayoral elections, expected to take place in April this year. A win in the mayoral race would establish a BJP-led ‘triple-engine’ governance model in the capital city, with the saffron party in control at the Centre, state, and municipal levels.
