NEW DELHI: With only a fortnight to go for the first phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, all eyes are on some of the key Hindi heartland states where tribal votes will play a decisive role in the bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress. While the BJP is upbeat after the recent assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where the consolidation of tribal votes helped it sweep the states, the Congress is trying to reverse its fortunes.
Political observers say that the battle for the 47 Lok Sabha constituencies reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs) will only get bigger in the run-up to the election with parties vying for their share of the pie. However, statistics show that over the years, the BJP has successfully made inroads into the tribal vote banks, which traditionally stayed with the Congress for long. From 13 seats in 2009 to 27 in 2014, the BJP’s tally went up to 31 in 2019 in the ST reserved seats. In comparison, the Congress tally dipped to five seats in 2014 from 20 in 2009. In 2019, the Congress managed to get only four seats of the 47 reserved seats.
The stunning victory of the BJP in the recent Assembly polls has been attributed to the Modi government’s long-term strategy of wooing the community with outreach efforts, from announcing welfare measures to identifying aspirational districts for the tribal belts. Analysts say that a victory in MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh is crucial for both the Congress and the BJP as the states account for nearly 31% of the tribal population in the country. While MP has 21.1% of ST population, Chhattisgarh nearly 30.6% and Rajasthan13.49%.
Among the various measures announced by the Modi government in recent months include Rs 24,000 crore scheme allocated under the Pradhan Mantri Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups mission. The scheme is aimed at providing basic facilities such as education, health, and livelihood to the community living on the margins. Analysts say BJP’s optics around appointing the first President from the tribal community have helped to strengthen its support among the community.
Other steps such as raising the Budget allocation from Rs 4,295.94 crore in 2013-14 to Rs 12,461.88 crore in 2023-24 and the setting up of Eklavya schools for ST students have given an edge to the BJP.
Analysts say that the welfare steps by the Centre were one of the reasons that the BJP was able to beat anti-incumbency in the recent MP Assembly elections. The BJP won 26 of the 47 reserved ST constituencies.
In Chhattisgarh, of the 29 ST reserved seats, the BJP won 17 while the Congress 11. But in 2018, the Congress won 25 ST seats and the BJP only 3. In Rajasthan, the BJP made major gains by winning 12 of the 25 ST reserved seats. The three states were won by the Congress in 2018 mainly with the help of tribal votes.
Stung by the defeat in the assembly elections, the Congress is also going all-out to sway the tribal vote bank with the promise of five guarantees to protect forests and the tribal land. The guarantees include setting up a national mission for implementation of the Forest Rights Act through a dedicated forest rights division, a separate budget and settling the pending FRA claims. To reach out to the community, the Congress also assured that all amendments made by the Modi government to the Forest Conservation Act and Land Acquisition Act, which have caused such great distress to Adivasis, will be “withdrawn”.
BJP guarantee
Rs 24,000 crore allocated under the Pradhan Mantri Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups (PM PVTG) mission
Optics around first tribal President Droupadi Murmu
Eklavya Model Residential Schools (EMRS) to provide education to ST students through residential schools setup in 2019
Budget allocation for economic empowerment of the tribal raised from
Rs 4,295.94 crore in 2013-14 to Rs 12,461.88 crore in 2023-24
Tribal push by Congress
Five guarantees under ‘Adivasi Nyay to protect water, forests and land
National mission for implementation of the Forest Rights Act through a dedicated forest rights division, a separate budget and action plans, including settling pending FRA claims.
Will withdraw all amendments made by the BJP government to forest conservation and land acquisition acts,
To enact state laws in conformity with Panchayat Extension to Scheduled Areas Act (PESA).
Will make the Scheduled Caste Plan and the Scheduled Tribe Sub Plan and enforceable by law
