The outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections upended the expectations set by most exit polls, which had projected a resounding victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The mandate still favours a potential third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the NDA secured a majority, despite the BJP falling short.
However, the coalition of opposition parties, collectively known as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), has curtailed the BJP's dominance, landing hard blows in pivotal bellwether states. Their concerted efforts have helped disrupt the saffron party's ambitious target of achieving the '400 paar' milestone for the NDA. BJP will now have to play the difficult game of coalition politics.
The map below shows how NDA and INDIA bloc performed in each state:
Here then are some key takeaways from the results:
* Where BJP plans went 'UP' in smoke!
In Uttar Pradesh, the political landscape took a dramatic turn as the INDIA bloc, spearheaded by allies the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress, defied expectations by emerging as the dominant force in the state. SP, in fact, emerged as the biggest party!
Despite widespread anticipation of a sweeping victory for the BJP and its allies, the electoral reality has painted a different picture. With Uttar Pradesh contributing the largest contingent of Members of Parliament (80) to the parliament, the unexpected surge of the INDIA bloc underscored a significant shift in voter sentiment.
Both the INDIA bloc and the NDA were said to have ended up with almost identical voteshares, something almost nobody predicted before the results.
* One-way fight in legacy war
In Maharashtra, the state wielding considerable influence with its 48 seats in the Lok Sabha, a gripping political narrative unfolded.
The Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition, comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (SP), surged ahead, showcasing a notable demonstration of unity and strategic coordination, also setting the stage for this year's assembly elections.
The MVA's dominance over the Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP and the breakaway factions of the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, solidifies the political legacies of Uddhav Thackeary and Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra. Baramati was the icing on the cake for the elder Pawar.
* Good game, well played Didi
The All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), a hot and cold INDIA bloc ally, emerged victorious in a three-way contest in West Bengal against the BJP and a coalition of fellow INDIA bloc allies Congress and the Left Front.
The state, which sends 42 MPs to the Lok Sabha, saw the TMC outperform its 2019 tally of 22 seats, while the BJP slumped to a big defeat despite a high-pitched campaign by PM Modi, Amit Shah and the party's top brass, who included Suvendu Adhikari this time around.
Yusuf Pathan, famous for his sixers, was among those who helped the TMC hit it out of the park in Bengal.
* Hindi heartland largely remains Modi-fied
While Uttar Pradesh slipped away from the BJP's clutch, the party continued its dominance with a clean sweep across the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, as well as the Union Territory of Delhi.
However, in Rajasthan, the saffron party's decade of unprecedented dominance came to an end this year as the Congress managed to flip a fair number of seats in the state, which sends 25 lawmakers to Lok Sabha.
In Gujarat, the Congress party dealt a blow to the BJP's aspirations of securing a clean sweep for the third consecutive time by clinching the Banaskantha Lok Sabha seat. Although this victory may appear as a minor blemish in the saffron party's enduring dominance in the state, it must have given Congress the heart to believe that it has the ability to penetrate Prime Minister Modi's stronghold.
* Paltu Chacha remains Kingmaker
In Bihar, the BJP-led NDA once again swept the state, as the Tejashwi Yadav-led opposition attack ended in vain. However, it took Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and Chirag Paswan's LJP (Ram Vilas) to help the BJP retain the state, which sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha. It was Nitish who carried the weight of the alliance after rejoining the NDA in January, even as the BJP and JD(U)'s numbers declined compared to their 2019 showing.
For INDIA, the RJD, which contested the most seats, had yet another underwhelming outing, while the Congress marginally improved on its solitary win in 2019. It took the left parties to help the opposition crawl its way to a high single-digit tally.
* Lotus blooms in God's own country
Arguably, the biggest surprise came in Kerala, where the BJP had nothing to show for despite having the highest density of RSS Shakhas. However, their fortunes changed this time around, with actor Suresh Gopi laying the pathway for the BJP's inroads into the state.
* Scorecard: Nine for five
In Karnataka, the dice rolled in favour of the BJP and JD(S) alliance, while the ruling Congress government, confident of securing a majority of the state's 28 seats, ended up with only a single-digit count.
On the surface, the numbers show that the BJP slumped from its tally of 25 seats in 2019, while Congress improved its standing compared to the solitary seat it won in that year's general elections. However, the results significantly dented the INDIA bloc's chances of reducing its gap to the NDA, as the Congress was in direct competition with the BJP in 25 seats.
Questions will be raised over what went wrong in the Congress camp, which failed to turn the tide, a year after it scored a thumping victory in the Assembly elections. The results will serve as a wake-up call for the Siddharamiah government, which banked on the five guarantee schemes it introduced in the state, supported by the social engineering and organisational efforts led by its Deputy CM, DK Shivakumar.
* 'Phir ek baar Modi sarkar', say seven sisters
The BJP-led NDA maintained its stronghold in the Northeast region, securing the majority of seats despite facing criticism for its handling of ethnic violence in Manipur.
The Northeast, comprising 25 seats, including 14 in Assam, two each in Manipur, Tripura, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh, and one each in Nagaland, Mizoram, and Sikkim, continued to favour a BJP-led government. However, the coalition's mandate in the region diminished compared to its performance in 2019.
