The BJP, the world’s largest political party, started its high-voltage election campaign with a Hindutva flavor but also a divisive slogan, “Batenge to Katenge” (If we divide, we may remain distanced from power), to consolidate the Hindu vote bank, which has fragmented into various castes and sub-castes in Maharashtra due to various reasons.
Interestingly, before this extremist slogan could reach the masses in full force, BJP’s star campaigner, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, reversed the course set by another BJP campaigner, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who popularized “Batenge to Katenge”. Modi introduced a more inclusive slogan, “Ek Hai to Safe Hai” (If we are united, we are safeguarded), at his campaign rally in Dhule. The objective of this slogan was to bring together all castes, creeds, and religious minorities under one umbrella to retain power in Maharashtra, the highest GDP-contributing state. The BJP not only used this slogan in its campaign rallies but also began running advertisements with it in prominent newspapers across Maharashtra.
The BJP’s parent body, RSS, has its headquarters in Nagpur, Maharashtra, but the state has always remained elusive for both RSS and BJP. While Narendra Modi has been sworn in for a third term as Prime Minister of India, Maharashtra has yet to come fully under his or the RSS’s grasp.
The reason lies in the fact that Maharashtra is not like the "cow belt" where divisive slogans like “Batenge to Katenge”, “Kabrastan and Shamshan” (referring to Muslim and Hindu burial grounds), and other polarized narratives might work. Maharashtra is the land of social reformers like Shahu Maharaj, who first initiated reservation policies for downtrodden people; Mahatma Phule, who educated farmers and fought against Brahminical dominance; and Dr. B.R. Ambedkar, who exposed the dogmatic practices in Hinduism that were against the larger sections of society. Additionally, Maharashtra has the legacy of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, who, with a small but loyal army, gave sleepless nights to the mighty Mughal Empire. Shivaji, though a Maratha by caste, brought together small castes and even recruited Muslims into his army to fight the Mughals. Moreover, in the 13th century, Maharashtra was home to the Varkari Sampraday, a religious and spiritual movement that included people from all castes and communities, opposing exploitative practices prevalent in Brahminical Hinduism. In short, Maharashtra’s progressive and secular ideas are significant stumbling blocks for the RSS-BJP’s ideological juggernaut.
Because of these factors, BJP’s political ally, Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, led NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) immediately opposed this divisive slogan, stating that such politics would not work in Maharashtra. Realizing its mistake, the BJP then tried to correct the narrative by introducing a more inclusive slogan.
BJP has been trying hard to expand its footprint in Maharashtra since the days of OBC leader late Gopinath Munde, uniting smaller OBC castes and positioning them against the dominant Maratha caste, which makes up 30 to 35 percent of the state's population. This OBC consolidation helped the BJP in 1995, but its success was limited, as power was shared with the Shiv Sena. However, the BJP now aspires to a "100 percent BJP" model in the state, a goal still distant despite being in power at the Centre for the last 11 years. The Marathas are largely opposed to the BJP, but when the 10-12 percent minority votes rally behind the Marathas, along with the support of 10 percent Dalits and 7 percent tribals, the caste arithmetic becomes complex. RSS and BJP have been trying to decode this equation for a long time.
In 2014, the BJP had its peak in Maharashtra state elections, winning 122 out of 288 seats by contesting separately. However, in the 2019 state assembly elections, the BJP’s number dropped to 105. Despite this, the BJP is contesting 148 seats, while its ally, Shiv Sena, is contesting 91 seats, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP is contesting 59 seats in the Mahayuti (Grand Alliance). Despite these efforts, the BJP is struggling even to retain its previous performance, let alone achieve new records. Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, and Yogi Adityanath are the party’s star campaigners, but the recent Lok Sabha election results have shown that Modi's magic seems to be waning. Many seats Modi campaigned for in the last election were lost by the BJP.
So, will Modi and Yogi be able to revive their magic? This is a question on everyone’s mind, including BJP leaders. Modi, Shah, and Yogi form a "double whammy" for the BJP. The more they campaign, the more they refresh people's memories of Modi-Shah’s Gujarat origins and the relocation of Maharashtra’s heavy investment and job-generating projects to Gujarat. This will give the opposition an opportunity to play the Marathi-Gujarati card, which has historical roots dating back to the days of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj’s plunders in Surat for his people's survival and expansion, and Deputy PM Morarji Desai’s insistence on giving Mumbai to Gujarat rather than Maharashtra.
The BJP also made a blunder by bringing the ‘Samvidhan’ narrative back again that was forgotten in the last six months. In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP admitted that the 'Samvidhan khatre mein hai' narrative damaged them. In their haste to attack Congress leader Rahul Gandhi over his town hall meeting on Samvidhan in deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis' constituency, the BJP linked the red colour of the Constitution book with the Marxist and Naxalite movement. Rahul Gandhi quickly responded, alleging the BJP-RSS is against Dr Ambedkar's Constitution. The Samvidhan narrative may help the Congress to rally Dalit votes behind them along with Kunbi and backward castes in Vidarbha and other parts of Maharashtra. Now, the BJP is trying to push this narrative under the carpet. The election result will reveal whether it helped or backfired.
Therefore, the BJP, a party that is an expert at setting political narratives, seems to be on the back foot in Maharashtra. It is caught in a dilemma over whether to build an inclusive or divisive narrative in the final eight days of the election campaign. Time is short, and the stakes are high for the world's largest political party in this crucial state.
