NEW DELHI: Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin’s all-party meeting has once again brought the vexed issue of delimitation in focus. While the meeting on Wednesday passed a resolution urging the Centre to ensure that the 1971 Census should be the basis for the delimitation of the Lok Sabha seats for 30 years from 2026, it also condemned the impending delimitation exercise, saying that it will have significant impact on political representation and resource allocation of Tamil Nadu and other southern states.
The recent controversy stems from concerns that the upcoming delimitation exercise, likely based on the 2021 Census, will disproportionately benefit northern states with higher population growth rates. Southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka, which have effectively controlled population growth, fear losing political representation.
However, addressing the concerns, Home Minister Amit Shah had recently said that the southern states wouldn’t lose seats after delimitations conducted on a pro rata basis. Citing analyses, the chief ministers of the southern states argue that if the delimitation exercise is based on the latest census, the southern states will be at disadvantage and will see either a reduction or stagnation in the number of Lok Sabha seats. Meanwhile, the northern states will gain a significant number of seats, they say.
Historical Context
Delimitation exercises were conducted in 1952, 1962, 1972, and 2002. These exercises were guided by the Delimitation Commission. The current strength of the Lok Sabha, 543, is based on the 1971 Census. After that, delimitation exercise has not been done as the 42nd Amendment to the Constitution mandated a freeze in the exercise for 25 years until 2001, which was extended by another 25 years till 2026. Under Article 82 of the Constitution, only the Census data after 2026 can be used for the delimitation exercise.
To undertake the delimitation exercise, the government must conduct the decadal Census, which has been indefinitely postponed since 2021 because of Covid-19 pandemic.
What do studies say?
Some studies said that if delimitation was based solely on the latest Census (2021 or 2031), the number of Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka is likely to decrease from 28 to 26. Andhra Pradesh’s seats will drop from 42 to 34, Kerala’s from 20 to 12, and Tamil Nadu’s from 39 to 31. Northern states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Rajasthan have higher population growth rates and are projected to gain more Lok Sabha seats.
Citing the numbers, the southern states argue that better governance and lower population growth should not result in reduced parliamentary representation. They fear that political influence will shift disproportionately towards high-population states in the north.
Some surveys project that based on the latest Census projection, the south’s share of the Lok Sabha seats may drop to 19%, while those of north India could go up to about 60%.
A 2019 analysis by political scientist Milan Vaishnav for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace found that to ensure proportional representation based on population projections for 2026, the Lok Sabha would have to expand to 848 members so no state loses out on seats.
Pro Rata Basis
While there is no clarity on whether delimitation will be based on the latest population ratio or the existing number of Lok Sabha seats, constitutional expert PDT Achary says that the government should devise a rational formula to address the concerns of southern states.
Achary says that the suggestion to make 1971 as the basis for the delimitation of the Lok Sabha seats for 30 years doesn’t solve the problem. “Population will keep increasing and a solution has to be coined immediately. There can’t be a common formula as different states have different populations,” he says.
“Southern states can have one formula and it must be based on factors such as population control and other factors as they have pioneered in it.”
He points out that every MP represented 10.11 lakh people on average in a constituency. “For an average parliamentary constituency, a population 10 lakhs is the average as per the earlier calculation. At the same time, there are small constituencies like Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar and Chandigarh whose population may not even cross one lakh. Still they are a constituency and have the same mandate as the ones with 20 lakhs,” he says.
“Therefore, this differential will have to be brought in the new formula. States with larger populations can have a different basis like 20-25 lakhs for a constituency whereas states which have less population, can be pegged at 10 lakhs. If one goes by this formula, other states won’t have an abnormally large number,” he added.
