NEW DELHI: There is a surge in Covid-19 cases again, with Southeast Asia, especially Hong Kong, Singapore, China and Thailand, reporting a spike. The surge comes more than five years after the WHO declared Covid-19 a pandemic.
Why the surge?
A cyclical viral illness flares up periodically after long, quiet periods. The main reason is the gradual decline in population-level immunity.
“Over time, antibody levels naturally wane — a process known as immune contraction — making people susceptible to reinfection. This is why even individuals with prior Covid-19 infection or vaccination may get infected again,” said Dr Rajeev Jayadevan, former president of the Indian Medical Association (IMA), Cochin.
Another reason is increased international travel, which allows viruses to move rapidly across borders and.The SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to undergo genetic changes, which help it evade the immune protection developed against earlier variants. These mutations make it easier for the virus to re-enter the human body by outsmarting prior immunity.
Situation in Southeast Asia
Singapore and Hong Kong are experiencing a significant resurgence of cases in May, driven primarily by the Omicron sub-variants LF.7 and NB.1.8.
Singapore reported a 28% increase in cases from April 27 to May 3, 2025, with an estimated 14,200 cases compared to 11,100 the previous week.
Hong Kong is experiencing its highest Covid-19 activity in a year, with test positivity rates rising from 6.21% four weeks before to 13.66% in the week ending May 10. Weekly cases increased from 972 to 1,042 in the week ending May 10, following a low of 33 cases in early March.
Hong Kong reported 81 severe cases and 31 deaths in the week ending May 3, marking a one-year high.
NB.1.8 is said to be triggering the surge. Originating in Hong Kong, it is driving the highest wave since mid-2023. In addition to Singapore and Hong Kong, China and Thailand are also reporting a surge.
India’s situation
The country saw a slight rise in Covid cases in May, but the figure did not even touch 300, so it is not a cause for concern, said Krishna Prasad, a health data analyst. While 93 cases were reported during the week of May 5-12, the number increased to 164 during the week of May 13-19. One death was reported from Kerala this week. “In May, India reported 257 cases and one death,” Prasad added.
States like Kerala, Maharashtra, TN, Karnataka, Gujarat, and Delhi have reported slight rise in cases in May.
The authorities have said that 257 is very low, considering the country’s large population. And most cases are mild and do not require hospitalisation.
Also, during this time, several seasonal upper respiratory viruses are circulating at the moment. Unlike earlier months, Covid-19 has re-emerged as one of the causes of fever and respiratory symptoms this season, said Dr Jayadevan.
Cause for panic in India?
There is no cause for panic. Covid-19 is no longer the destructive threat it once was. The severity of illness has significantly reduced since the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021.
JN.1: the variant of interest
The two variants — LF.7 and NB.1.8 — leading to the surge in Singapore and Hong Kong are descendants of JN.1 Omicron subvariant. While both variants exhibit immune-evasive properties, they do not appear to cause more severe diseases. JN.1 has been designated as a “variant of interest”, not yet a “variant of concern”.
Will JN.1 cause a Covid-19 wave in India?
The currently circulating variants will not trigger a Covid-19 wave in India, said Dr Jayadevan.
