PATNA: The second phase of Bihar assembly polls will be like a litmus test for both ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan, as both alliances are apparently evenly poised in the first round.
The second phase of polling will take place in 122 constituencies across 20 districts of Bihar.
After the first round of the election, held on November 6, which finished with a record voter turnout, the second phase polls to be held on Tuesday will decide which alliance will finally form the government in the state.
As many as 40 seats in Tirhut, 24 in Seemanchal, 26 in Magadh, and 22 seats in Shahabad regions will go to the polls in the second phase. The 122 seats going to polls in the second and final phase are spread across 20 districts of Bihar’s central, western and northern regions.
BJP traditionally dominated Tirhut, Saran, and northern Mithilanchal regions, whereas JD(U) has a strong ground in Bhagalpur. Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, has dominant base in Magadh and Shahabad regions covering the districts of Jehabanad, Gaya, Aurangabad, Rohtas, Kaimur, Arwal, and Nawada.
Congress, however, does not have a strong influence in this region and it largely rallied on its allies. While the opposition Mahagathbandhan faces the challenge of repeating its performance in Shahabad and Magadh regions, the ruling NDA will have to perform better in these regions and also hold its electoral bastions intact.
In the 2020 assembly elections, the NDA dominated in Tirhut, while the Mahagathbandhan performed better in Magadh and Shahabad regions. During that election, Mahagathbandhan won only seven out of the 24 assembly seats in Seemanchal, whereas NDA won 31 out of the 40 seats in Tirhut region.
Tirhut played a significant role in bringing the NDA to power. The Mahagathbandhan won only nine seats here in 2020 assembly election. This crushing defeat in this region kept the party away from power.
If the NDA retains its grip on Tirhut and succeeds in breaching the Mahagathbandhan’s bastions in Magadh and Shahabad — or if the Mahagathbandhan defends its hold in Magadh while making gains in Tirhut — the overall electoral dynamics could shift significantly.
The 24 seats in Seemanchal are crucial in determining the formation of the government. In the last assembly elections, out of the 24 seats in Seemanchal, the BJP won eight, JD (U) four, Congress five, RJD and CPI (ML) one each, while AIMIM won five seats.
The Mahagathbandhan is trying to consolidate its core voters in Seemanchal, while the NDA is working to further strengthen its position there. The presence of AIMIM and Jan Suraaj Party has made the election a triangular contest.
This time too, Seemanchal has witnessed a power-packed campaign by all political parties. From rallies by BJP bigwigs, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, to the Rahul Gandhi-led Voter Adhikar Yatra, all parties have walked the extra mile to woo the Seemanchal voters. The Magadh region includes Gaya, Aurangabad, Nawada, Jehanabad, and Arwal districts.
In 2020, Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM party held the Imamganj, Tikari, and Barachatti seats in Gaya district. In 2025, HAM candidates are facing tough competition on all three seats. BJP is contesting from Gaya Town, JD (U) from Belaganj, Congress from Wazirganj, and LJP from Sherghati. Similarly, the prestige of the state Congress president Rajesh Ram is at stake in Kutumba, Aurangabad.
"The situation has changed for NDA as union minister Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV) and former union minister Upendra Kushwaha`s RLM are contesting the polls this time as allies of the ruling alliance. In addition to it, Bihar government’s scheme, 'Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojan' may also tilt the balance in faovur of the NDA this time,” remarked political analyst.
Under the scheme, women have received Rs 10,000 for opening their own businesses as the government would provide subsequent support up to Rs 2 lakh.
In the 2020 Assembly election, the Mahagathbandhan won 20 seats, though its performance in Magadh, like in Shahabad, was weakened by rifts among its Kushwaha and Scheduled Caste supporters. The NDA failed to win any seats in Magadh’s three districts — Jehanabad, Aurangabad, and Arwal. This time, the NDA has replaced several candidates in the region and allotted six seats to its new ally, LJP (RV), which had contested independently in 2020.
