On the outskirts of Nuzivid, a palm fruit vendor seated under a tree by the roadside waits patiently for customers. A dozen for Rs 70, he shouts, at passing vehicles. It isn’t easy work, for the weather is too hot. Nearby, a middle-aged lady and an aged person give him company. They sell mangoes, bought from farmers in the nearby villages. “Our lives are like this,” says the palm fruit vendor, wiping sweat from his forehead. Like everyone else, he too is interested in the elections. “Our vote is for Jagan,” he says emphatically. His reasoning is simple. His family received much-needed financial aid from the government. “We don’t believe Chandrababu Naidu,” he quips with a frown when asked about the welfare promises of the TDP. The aged man chips in, “Where was he during the corona pandemic? We would have died but for the timely services of volunteers.” The lady agrees. Drive further to the town, farmers owning mango orchards have a different take. “Jagan will destroy everything if he wins again,” muses a farmer whose family sells mangoes to wholesale merchants. “Where is development? Jobs? Importantly, he will take away our lands!” he fumes and adds that Naidu is the best bet.
One can find pretty much the same conversations with few variations across Andhra Pradesh. There indeed appears to be a class divide, so to speak. The poor and minorities are with Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRC and the middle and upper classes with the TDP. Interestingly, however, in urban areas, the TDP’s message of jobs is resonating with sections of the lower middle class as well. The YSRC is counting on the beneficiaries of Jagan’s welfare schemes, particularly women and the elderly, and rightly so. English medium education in government schools, pensions, healthcare and the volunteer system being the primary reasons for the same. Jagan being Jagan, he hasn’t promised anything dramatic in his manifesto but that doesn’t seem to matter for these sections. They believe he means what he says.
To make inroads into these sections, the TDP has offered Super Six guarantees – taking a leaf out of the Congress playbook in Telangana. TDP’s USP is the slogan of development and jobs but to offset Jagan’s welfare agenda and track record, it seems the party has coined the Super Six – which in a way is ironic as it had been accusing Jagan of emptying the State coffers through the schemes. If it comes to power, it will have to do the same and more for its promises will surely put a bigger burden on the exchequer. Somewhere in the TDP think tanks, there appears to be a Congress brain because the schemes, the wording and even the strategy, one cannot help but conclude, are adapted from the grand old party’s successful campaign in Telangana. Take for instance the free bus ride for women, monthly payment of Rs 1,500 to adult women, Rs 4,000 pension, etc. It is not an exact copy but fair to say that it draws ‘inspiration’ from the Congress manifesto, though the TDP is an ally of the BJP.
But Jagan is no KCR. In Telangana, KCR had been in power for a decade facing huge anti-incumbency. His government’s implementation of welfare schemes was deeply flawed. And KCR himself was seen as arrogant.
Understandably, Naidu and his allies see a tyrant in Jagan since the TDP chief and several of his party leaders have faced cases, arrests in the last five years. To attribute their experiences to the general public at large may not fetch the expected returns. Similarly, strategic moves like highlighting the Land Titling Act sound more like an effort to recreate the Dharani portal controversy, which damaged KCR’s third-term prospects to an extent. In Andhra, however, the Act hasn’t been implemented fully nor is there a controversy surrounding it unlike in Telangana where many farmers had to run from pillar to post to get their land in their name on Dharani and allegations flew thick and fast of land grabbing by local BRS leaders. In this mix, the caste equation may play a part too. Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena is expected to bring in Kapu votes for the TDP. One has to wait and see to what extent. The saffron party, for all the rhetoric of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, isn’t in the thick of action, riven, as it is, by internal dissent over the pact with the TDP and influence of turncoats.
Ultimately, notwithstanding promises and strategies, the electoral outcome depends on trust – whether people trust Jagan or Naidu. Each leader is playing up his strengths. If Jagan reminds people of his welfare agenda and track record, Naidu is betting on his image of a forward-looking administrator. It is a close call but internal surveys of reliable agencies put the YSRC just a little ahead. By election day, the fortunes may swing either way.
A Tale of Two Leaders
TDP general secretary Nara Lokesh and Jana Sena chief Pawan Kalyan are the ones to watch out for in this election. Lokesh, who undertook a padayatra for 226 days, is very likely to emerge as the new leader after what can be called baptism by fire in the last five years. Following his loss in 2019, he did what was expected of him. He nurtured his constituency Mangalagiri while reaching out to people across the State. He is far more comfortable speaking in public and his confidence is high. Irrespective of whether the TDP loses or wins, Lokesh is definitely going to play a key role in the future.
Actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan, on the other hand, has chosen Pithapuram after he lost from Gajuwaka and Bhimavaram in 2019. He for some reason didn’t own either Bhimavaram or Gajuwaka. And, it was painful for his legions of fans to see him seek local TDP leader Varma’s support to win from Pithapuram. Being a star, he has limitations of course to mingle with the people. But this election is a litmus test for him. A loss would erode his stature. Ground reports suggest he should make it this time. If he stays the course, Pawan too will be a leader to reckon with in the future. IF, that is the operative word.
Kalyan Tholeti
Resident Editor, AP & Telangana
chakravarthy@newindianexpress.com
